Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement towards a short term target at 460.50 to 461.49 before a resumption of the downwards trend.
Price did move a little higher to reach 457.10, 3.40 short of the target zone, before turning lower.
The wave count remains the same.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.
Within intermediate wave (2) running flat minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.
At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.
At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.
Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.
I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.
When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.
The structure for minor wave 2 may now be a completed zigzag. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.
Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.31 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).
I have drawn a conservative best fit channel about the correction of minor wave 2. When this channel is clearly breached, and price remains below it, I shall have more confidence in this trend change.
Minor wave 3 must make a new price extreme beyond the end of minor wave 1. Movement below 418.90 would see this rule met and provide further confidence in this wave count.
Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 457.10.