AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th March, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected price to continue to fall which is exactly what has happened. The main hourly wave count expected downwards momentum to increase which has also happened.

The wave counts remain the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This main wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse price is within a third wave at primary degree. The strongest part of downwards movement is yet to unfold.

At 365 minor wave 3 would reach equality with minor wave 1. While minor wave 3 is in progress no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. In the short term this daily wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 484.94.

At 356 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. Thereafter, primary wave 4 should last a couple of weeks to a month or so and may not move back into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated at that stage with movement above 505.75. This is the price point which differentiates this main wave count from the alternate daily chart below.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Downwards movement has increased in momentum on the hourly chart and has breached the channel drawn about minute wave i.

This indicates that a third wave may be beginning, and that this wave count would be correct.

Within minute wave iii we probably do not have an end yet to minuette wave (i). Within minuette wave (i) of minute wave iii subminuette waves i to iv may be complete. Subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 1.48 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.48 longer than equality with micro wave 3.

Subminuette wave iv is most likely to be over.

When subminuette wave v ends then minute wave (i) will be complete. The following upwards correction for minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 452.44 for the next few days.

At 375 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart daily alternate 2013

If momentum downwards fails to increase then this alternate would be a good explanation.

If cycle wave a is unfolding as a flat then primary wave A within it may be a zigzag.

At 409 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

At 395 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

When primary wave A is complete then primary wave B must reach at least 90% the length of primary wave A, and may make a new high. At that stage if price moves above 505.75 the main wave count above would be invalidated and this alternate would be confirmed. If that happens then we will know that price must continue to rise to the point where primary wave B equals 90% of primary wave A, at minimum.