After today’s analysis was published, StockCharts data was finalised. Very importantly, volume for Wednesday’s upwards day increased.
This gives great cause for concern over the wave count.
We may see a new high above 2,093.84. If we do, this alternate should be used.
ALTERNATE BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Intermediate wave (2) may not be over. It may be continuing further as an even deeper zigzag.
The degree of labelling for the wave up here labelled minor wave A has been moved down one degree. This move is ambiguous on the hourly chart, and on the daily chart it does have a better fit as a five wave impulse than it does as a zigzag.
If that wave up was a five, then intermediate wave (2) may not be over.
Minor wave B may be continuing as a flat correction.
Minute wave b may be an incomplete expanded flat and current upwards movement may be a C wave to complete it. This would be extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 2,104.27 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.
Thereafter, a five down to make a new low below the end of minute wave a at 2,109.38 would complete the expanded flat for minor wave B. That downwards move may again find support at the downwards sloping cyan trend line.
Finally, another wave up for minor wave C to move above the end of minor wave A at 2,116.48 would unfold to complete a zigzag for intermediate wave (2).
This idea is entirely valid. It would expect big choppy overlapping movement for several weeks yet to complete a very deep time consuming second wave correction.
If this is how it unfolds, then the degree of labelling within the bear market would have to be moved up one degree. This may be primary wave 2.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 2,134.71. That is the final invalidation point for any bear wave count. Any movement of any amount at any time frame above that point would invalidate the bear wave count.
This analysis is published about 03:02 a.m. EST on 17 December, 2015.
I cannot think of a potential structure that would fulfill the market’s mission to “fool most of the people most of the time” than that monster zig-zag. One can imagine the enthusiasm with which the bears would greet a new market low, only to be whip-sawed as it blasted higher to conclude minor C up…sneaky..sneaky… sneaky!!
That Cyan line is VERY important.
Thanks so much for the thorough analysis Lara; I am really gonna miss ya!