The alternate bear Elliott wave count has been confirmed. I am changing the bull Elliott wave count to see the subdivisions in the same way.
Summary: The target for this upwards movement to end is at 2,044.
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Bearish Wave Count
The weekly charts show how to draw the double aqua blue trend lines. The lower trend line began back in 2011 has repeatedly been tested and is reasonably shallow which is highly technically significant. It has now been breached by more than 3% of market value indicating a trend change should occur. This trend change may yet come after one final new high.
I am confident that I have the labeling of intermediate waves (3) and (4) correct. Intermediate wave (3) lasted 455 days and is just 0.76 short of 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (3) has the strongest upwards momentum within primary wave C.
There is technical divergence between price and MACD at the weekly and daily chart levels. This indicates a trend change is approaching, but it does not indicate what degree the trend change should be.
For the first time in five years the lower edge of the maroon – – – channel about cycle wave b (or x) was breached. This is significant.
With this wave count minor wave 3 is 14.29 points longer than 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 2 is an expanded flat lasting 39 days and minor wave 4 is a zigzag lasting 18 days.
Within minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,820.66.
This upwards movement fits nicely as a five wave impulse. Minute wave iii is just 0.38 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i. I would not expect to see a Fibonacci ratio for minute wave v to either iii or i.
At 2,044 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
If minuette wave (iv) continued further sideways as a double combination it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 1,991.40.
This wave count expects minor wave 5 to be relatively short and brief.
Bullish Wave Count
This bullish wave count differs from the bearish wave count at the monthly chart level and at super cycle wave degree. To see the historic picture go here.
I am today adjusting the bull wave count to see this upwards impulse for primary wave 3 in exactly the same way as the bear wave count sees the upwards impulse of primary wave C. Primary wave 4 has most likely not yet arrived.
Subdivisions on the daily and hourly charts are exactly the same. Targets and invalidation points are exactly the same.
This analysis is published about 07:45 p.m. EST.