The Dow moved lower during last week, as expected, and the main daily wave count remains valid.
I still have two daily wave counts for you. The main wave count has the highest probability. The alternate should only be considered if the main wave count is invalidated.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Wave (2) black may have ended as a very rare triple zigzag. The subdivisions all fit and the purpose of a triple zigzag to deepen a correction is being achieved; movement is clearly upwards and not sideways.
Cycle wave a is an expanded flat because primary wave B within it is over 105% the length of primary wave A. An expanded flat expects a C wave to move substantially beyond the end of the A wave. At 9,537 primary wave C would achieve this and would be a typical 1.618 the length of primary wave A.
The parallel channel drawn here about wave (2) black is a best fit. Movement below this channel would confirm a trend change.
Wave (2) black may not move beyond the start of wave (1) black. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,338.66.
If this wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,338.66 we should use the alternate daily wave count.
Movement for last week may be a flat correction for wave (ii) green which is incomplete.
Wave a orange subdivides into a three wave structure. Wave b orange is a 132% correction of wave a orange and so this would be an expanded flat correction.
An expanded flat commonly has wave C which is 1.618 the length of wave A. This would be achieved at 13,220.
At 13,199 wave 5 purple within wave c orange would reach equality with wave 3 purple. This gives us a 21 point target zone for upwards movement which should be achieved early next week.
Thereafter, this wave count expects an increase in downwards momentum.
Wave (ii) green may not move beyond the start of wave (i) green. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,330.68.
If this wave count is invalidated then we should use the alternate below.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
It is possible to see waves i and iii pink within wave C blue as zigzags, although this does not have as good a fit as the main wave count. This alternate has a lower probability.
Wave C blue may be unfolding as an imperfect ending diagonal because the wave lengths are not as expected. Wave iii pink is shorter than wave i pink and the diagonal should be contracting, but wave iv pink is longer than wave ii pink.
Because wave iii pink is shorter than wave i pink there is a maximum length for wave v pink. It may not be longer than the third wave. The maximum length is achieved at equality with wave iii pink at 13,532.
Within a diagonal wave iv pink may not move beyond the end of wave ii pink. This structure is invalidated with movement below 12,778.9.
Movement below 12,778.9 would provide strong confirmation for the main daily wave count and a trend change at primary degree. It should also bring price below the parallel channel here on the daily chart, providing further confidence to a trend change.