Downwards movement continues as the first Elliott wave count expected. The short-term alternate Elliott wave count was today invalidated, adding a little confidence to the first Elliott wave count.

Summary: The first wave count expects that a pullback or consolidation is now very close to complete. It may find support about 3,055 (most likely) or 2,725.

For the short term, a new high now above 3,323.95 would indicate the pullback may be over.

The second wave count considers the possibility that a once in multi-generations trend change may have occurred. Some confidence in this wave count would come with invalidation of the first wave count below 2,191.86.

At this stage, a new high above 3,330.30 would be bullish.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Monthly charts are here, with video here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS

FIRST WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave V may last from one to several years. So far it has lasted 6 months.

Cycle wave V would most likely subdivide as an impulse. But if overlapping develops, then an ending diagonal should be considered. This chart considers the more common impulse.

Primary wave 1 may be complete. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 2,191.86.

There is already a Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves I and III within Super Cycle wave (V). The S&P500 often exhibits a Fibonacci ratio between two of its actionary waves but rarely between all three; it is less likely that cycle wave V would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio. The target for Super Cycle wave (V) to end would best be calculated at primary degree, but that cannot be done until all of primary waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete. The target at 4,034 is provisional, so it may change.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 1 may be over and primary wave 2 may have begun.

Primary wave 2 may be a multi-week pullback or consolidation. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 2,191.86.

For the S&P500, the first multi-week second wave correction within a new trend is not always very deep. Two examples from prior bull markets: after the bear market of October 1987, the first multi-week second wave in the following bull market ended in September 1990 and was only a 0.49 correction of its corresponding first wave, and more recently the last bull market beginning in March 2009 saw its first multi-week second wave correction end in June 2009, which was only a 0.30 correction of its corresponding first wave.

The 0.236 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1 at 3,258.59 has been passed and the structure of primary wave 2 on the hourly chart looks incomplete. The next target is now the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 3,054.74. If price falls through that preferred target, then the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 2,725.23 would be the next target.

HOURLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure, most likely an impulse. Minor waves 1 and 2 within intermediate wave (C) may now be complete. Minor wave 3 may be underway. Minor wave 3 must move below the end of minor wave 1. Minor wave 4 may not overlap back into minor wave 1 price territory above 3,229.10.

Minute waves i and ii within minor wave 3 may be complete. If minute wave ii continues higher, then it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 3,323.35.

Intermediate wave (C) may end about the lower edge of the Elliott channel, or it may overshoot the lower edge. When the channel is breached by upwards movement, then that may be taken as an indication that primary wave 2 may be over and primary wave 3 may have begun.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

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This wave count is the same as the first wave count with the exception of the degree of labelling within cycle wave V. If the degree of labelling is moved up one degree, then it is possible that cycle wave V to end Super cycle wave (V) to end Grand Super Cycle wave I is complete.

A new low below 2,191.86 would add confidence in this wave count. At that stage, the first wave count would be invalidated.

A new bear market at Grand Super Cycle degree may be expected to last over a decade. It may take price below the start of Super Cycle wave (V) at 666.79 in March 2009.

HOURLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that a Grand Super Cycle degree trend change may have occurred.

The first five down within the new trend is labelled minor wave 1 (it is now off to the left of the chart).

Minor wave 2 may be complete.

Minor wave 3 may have begun. Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Minute waves i and ii within minor wave 3 may be complete. Minute wave iii may be underway. Minute wave iii must move beyond the end of minute wave i. Minute wave iv may not overlap back into minute wave i price territory.

Minuette wave (ii) within minute wave iii may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 3,323.35. 

Add an acceleration channel, which is drawn in the same way as the Elliott channel on the first hourly chart. Any stronger bounces along the way down may find resistance at the upper edge of the channel. The power of minor wave 3 should break below support of the lower edge of the channel.

When intermediate wave (1) may be complete, then the invalidation point would have to move back up to its start. Intermediate wave (2) should be a bounce to last at least a week or two, and it may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 3,588.11.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

ADX indicates an upwards trend. However, with RSI exhibiting bearish divergence and a bearish candlestick reversal pattern at the high having support from volume, further pullback or consolidation at least for the short term may be expected here.

Last week saw a volume spike for options expiration on 18th September. Although volume is pushing price lower, options expiry weakens this signal.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Yesterday fell just short of a 90% down day with down volume 89% of total up / down volume, but it meets the requirements of an 80% down day. Next support is at 3,155 and then 3,055. There is not yet a bullish reversal candlestick pattern.

BREADTH – AD LINE

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

Lowry’s Operating Companies Only AD line has still not made new all time highs. The last high for the OCO AD line was in the week beginning January 13, 2020. There is now 7 and a half months of bearish divergence between price and the OCO AD line. This may now support the more bearish second wave count. It is possible now that a major trend change may occur.

The NYSE All Issues AD line made new highs in the week beginning 1st of June.

Last week price has completed an outside week and the AD line has declined. There is no new divergence.

Large caps all time high: 3,588.11 on September 2, 2020.

Mid caps all time high: 2,109.43 on February 20, 2020.

Small caps all time high: 1,100.58 on August 27, 2018.

This rise has been led by large caps, which is a feature of an aged bull market. Only large caps have made new highs above the last swing high of the 11th of August.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Today price moved lower, but the AD line has increased a little. This divergence is bullish, but it is weak.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Inverted VIX remains well below all time highs. The all time high for inverted VIX was in the week beginning October 30, 2017. There is nearly 3 years of bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX. There is all of long, mid and short-term bearish divergence.

Last week price has completed an outside week and inverted VIX has increased. There is no new short-term divergence.

Comparing VIX and VVIX: Last week both VIX and VVIX have declined. VVIX has made a new short-term low below the low of seven weeks prior, but VIX has not. This divergence is bullish for price and supports the first Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

For the very short term, today price has moved lower, but inverted VIX has moved slightly higher. This divergence is bullish, but it is weak.

Inverted VIX remains well above lows of the 3rd to 8th of September, but price is below. This divergence remains bullish.

Comparing VIX and VVIX at the daily chart level: VIX has made a very short-term new high above the high of three sessions prior, but VVIX has not. This divergence is bullish for the very short term for price, but it is given less weight than divergence between price and inverted VIX.

DOW THEORY

Dow Theory still concludes a bear market is in place.

Dow Theory confirmed a bear market with the following lows made on a closing basis:

DJIA: 21,712.53 – a close below this point was been made on the March 12, 2020.

DJT: 8,636.79 – a close below this point was been made on March 9, 2020.

Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory, a bear market was confirmed:

S&P500: 2,346.58 – a close below this point was made on March 20, 2020.

Nasdaq: 7,292.22 – a close below this point was made on the March 12, 2020.

At this time, to shift Dow Theory from viewing a bear market to confirmation of a new bull market would require new highs made on a closing basis:

DJIA: 29,568.57

DJT: 11,623.58

Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory, confirmation of a bull market would require new highs made on a closing basis:

S&P500: 3,393.52 – closed above on 21st August 2020.

Nasdaq: 9,838.37 – closed above on June 8, 2020.

Published @ 06:00 p.m. ET.

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Careful risk management protects your trading account(s).

Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always trade with stops.

2. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.