Price at the end of the week has been unable to break out of a range with support about 3,200 and resistance about 3,280. VIX and VVIX give a slight signal that supports the main Elliott wave count, but two alternates remain valid.

Summary: It is possible that the bounce is over and the bear market has resumed. Slight divergence between VIX and VVIX, and remaining clear divergence between price and RSI, support this main wave count. A new low below 3,127.66 would add reasonable confidence to this view. A new low below 2,965.66 would invalidate the alternate bullish wave count and add strong confidence in a bearish wave count.

Price broke above small bullish flag pattern on Friday. A short-term classic analysis target would be at 3,405. This fits the bullish alternate Elliott wave count, which now has some support from classic technical analysis and should be seriously considered. A new high above 3,393.52 would provide confidence in this wave count. A new high above 3,328.45 would increase probability of a bullish wave count. 

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Last monthly charts are here. Video is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS

MAIN WEEKLY CHART

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This main Elliott wave count expects that the bull market beginning in March 2009 was cycle wave I of Super Cycle wave (V). The trend change in February 2020 may have been only at cycle degree. Cycle wave II may last from one to a few years.

Cycle wave II would most likely subdivide as a zigzag; thus far that looks like what is unfolding. At the end of this week, again both of primary waves A and B may be complete. A target is calculated for primary wave C to end.

As price approaches the first target, if the structure may be complete, then it may end there. But if the structure is incomplete or price keeps falling, then attention would turn to the second target.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 666.79.

DAILY CHART

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Draw the wide maroon trend channel carefully: draw the first trend line from the end of primary wave 1 at 2,093.55 (December 26, 2014), to the end of primary wave 3 at 2,940.91 (September 21, 2018), then place a parallel copy on the end of primary wave 2 at 1,810.10 (February 11, 2016). The channel was fully breached in March 2020 indicating a trend change from the multi-year bull trend to a new bear trend. During the next downwards wave this line may offer some support.

Cycle wave II may subdivide as any Elliott wave corrective structure except a triangle. It would most likely be a zigzag (zigzags subdivide 5-3-5).

Primary wave B may now be a complete double zigzag.

If primary wave A is correctly labelled as a five wave impulse, and if primary wave B continues higher, then it may not move beyond the start of primary wave A above 3,393.52.

HOURLY CHART

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Minute wave ii may have continued higher on Friday to complete as a double combination: zigzag – X – flat. If subminuette wave c of minuette wave (y) of minute wave ii continues any higher on Monday, then it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 3,279.99.

If this main hourly wave count is invalidated, then the alternate hourly chart below should be used.

A new low now below 3,204.13 would invalidate the alternate hourly chart and provide some confidence in this wave count.

A new low below 2,965.66 would invalidate the bullish alternate wave count below and provide further confidence in this wave count.

ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

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Primary wave B may still be an incomplete double zigzag. Primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A above 3,393.52.

Minor waves A and B within the double zigzag of intermediate wave (Y) may be complete. Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. Minute waves i and ii may be complete.

Minute wave iii may only subdivide as an impulse. Minuette waves i and ii within minute wave iii may be complete. Subminuette wave ii within minuette wave (iii) may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 3,204.13.

This wave count now has a series of three overlapping first and second waves complete. It expects now an increase in upwards momentum next week.

FIRST ALTERNATE WEEKLY CHART

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This alternate weekly chart follows the First Alternate Monthly chart. It is best viewed on a weekly chart time frame.

By simply moving the degree of labelling in the bull market beginning March 2009 up one degree, it is possible that a Grand Super Cycle trend change occurred on February 19, 2020. The bull market from March 2009 to February 2020 may have been a complete fifth wave labelled Super Cycle wave (V).

A bear market at Grand Super Cycle degree may be expected to last at least a decade, possibly longer. Corrections for this market tend to be much quicker than bullish moves, and so a fair amount of flexibility is required in expectations for duration of the different degrees.

Grand Super Cycle II would most likely subdivide as a zigzag, although it may be any corrective structure except a triangle. It should begin with a five down at the weekly chart time frame, which would be incomplete.

The first wave down on the daily chart is labelled cycle wave I. If this degree of labelling is wrong, it may be too high; it may need to be moved down one degree.

Following cycle wave I, cycle wave II may be an incomplete double zigzag.

If it continues any higher, then cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 3,393.52.

THIRD ALTERNATE DAILY CHART – BULLISH

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This alternate daily chart follows the third alternate monthly chart. It will be published daily because the structure of the current upwards wave is different and so the invalidation point is different. This alternate chart labels the subdivisions of the long bull market differently.

The target for the end of this bull market is provisional. It would best be calculated at primary degree, but that cannot be done until all of primary waves 1 through to 4 are complete. At that stage, the target will be recalculated and will very likely change.

Cycle wave V must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, most likely an impulse. Primary wave 1 within cycle wave V may be nearing completion.

Within primary wave 1: intermediate waves (1) through to (4) may be complete.

The channel drawn about primary wave 1 using Elliott’s technique was no longer showing where price was finding support. The channel is redrawn as a best fit. A strong breach of this channel by downwards movement at this stage may see this wave count discarded. In the first instance, look for support about the lower edge.

Intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 1 is shorter than intermediate wave (1). Because intermediate wave (3) may not be the shortest actionary wave, intermediate wave (5) is limited to no longer than equality in length with intermediate wave (3) at 3,432.15.

When primary wave 1 may be a complete five wave structure, then primary wave 2 should then unfold as a multi-week pullback and may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 2,191.86.

In the short term, invalidation of this wave count by a new low below 2,965.66 would add confidence to a bearish wave count.

This alternate wave count is bullish.

Bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX and RSI do not support this wave count. Weak volume does not support this wave count.

Cycle wave V may last from one to several years.

THIRD ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

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The hourly chart focusses on the middle of minor wave 3 from the end of minute waves i and ii within it.

This wave count now expects there may be a series of four overlapping first and second waves complete. An increase in upwards momentum should be imminent. 

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 3,204.13.

Minor wave 3 should exhibit strength.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

An inside week completes with some increase in volume for upwards movement within it. This is bullish at least for the short term. There is no bearish reversal pattern.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The breakaway gap of 24th February has its upper edge at 3,328.45. A bearish analysis remains reasonable while this gap remains open. If this gap is closed, then a more bullish analysis that would expect new all time highs would increase in probability.

At the high within last week is a Bearish Engulfing pattern. This appears while RSI reached overbought and then exhibited bearish divergence with the prior swing high of the 8th of June. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

However, Friday completed an upwards breakout from a small flag pattern that has support from volume. A target from the flag pole would be at 3,405. This supports the third alternate bullish Elliott wave count.

The Dragonfly doji completed for Friday’s session comes in the context of a consolidation. Importantly, it has not made a new high above resistance, which remains at 3,279. The Dragonfly doji is not a reversal signal, so it is not noted on the chart.

BREADTH – AD LINE

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

This week the NYSE all issues AD line has made another new all time high, although Lowry’s Operating Companies Only AD line still has not. This divergence is bullish and noted on this chart, but failure of the OCO AD line to confirm this divergence reduces the strength of the signal.

Large caps all time high: 3,393.52 on 19th February 2020.

Mid caps all time high: 2,109.43 on 20th February 2020.

Small caps all time high: 1,100.58 on 27th August 2018.

Again, at the end of this week, it is only large caps that have made new swing highs above the prior high of the 8th of June. Small and mid caps have not. The rise over the last several weeks is led by large caps, so it lacks breadth. This is normal of an aged bullish move and supports the main Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Bullish divergence has now been followed by an upwards session, so it may now be resolved.

On Friday price has moved higher, but the AD line has declined. Upwards movement does not have support from rising market breadth. This divergence is bearish for the short term.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Inverted VIX remains well below all time highs. There remains over two years of strong bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX.

Short-term bearish divergence noted in last week’s analysis has not been followed by any downwards movement, so it may have failed.

This week both price and inverted VIX have moved higher. There is no new divergence.

Comparing VIX and VVIX: For the very short term, from weeks beginning 6th to 27th July, price has moved higher and VIX has declined; this is normal. But VVIX has not made a new short-term low and remains slightly elevated. This divergence is bearish for the short term.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Bullish divergence noted in last analysis has now been followed by an upwards session, so it may now be resolved.

On Friday price made a short-term high above the high two sessions prior, but inverted VIX has not. This divergence is bearish for the short term.

Comparing VIX and VVIX: Price has moved higher and VIX has moved slightly lower from the 8th to 31st of June; this is normal. But VVIX remains slightly elevated. This divergence is bearish.

DOW THEORY

Dow Theory has confirmed a bear market with the following lows made on a closing basis:

DJIA: 21,712.53 – a close below this point has been made on the March 12, 2020.

DJT: 8,636.79 – a close below this point has been made on March 9, 2020.

Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory, a bear market has now been confirmed:

S&P500: 2,346.58 – a close below this point has now been made on March 20, 2020.

Nasdaq: 7,292.22 – a close below this point was made on the March 12, 2020.

At this time, to shift Dow Theory from viewing a bear market to confirmation of a new bull market would require new highs made on a closing basis:

DJIA – 29,568.57

DJT – 11,623.58

Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory:

S&P500 – 3,393.52

Nasdaq – 9,838.37 – closed above on June 8, 2020.

Additionally, neither of DJIA nor DJT have made new swing highs above the prior highs of 8th of June. Only S&P500 and Nasdaq have made mid-term swing highs.

Published @ 08:06 p.m. ET

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.