A downwards day was expected from the alternate Elliott wave count.

Three Elliott wave counts are presented today.

Summary: The main Elliott wave count today expects that a pullback may continue to end in another one to three sessions about 4,111.59. This wave count would be invalidated with a new low below 3,983.87.

The first alternate wave count expects the pullback is over at today’s low. The next target is at 4,276. This alternate would be invalidated by a new low below 4,136.52.

The second alternate (which is new today) considers an intermediate degree correction may continue for another two to few weeks to a target at 4,029.52. The invalidation point for this alternate is at 3,950.43.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Monthly charts are last updated here with video here.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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Cycle wave V may last from one to several years. So far it is in its thirteenth month.

This wave count may allow time for the AD line to diverge from price as price makes final highs before the end of the bull market. The AD line most commonly diverges a minimum of 4 months prior to the end of a bull market. A longer divergence is positively correlated with a deeper bear market. A shorter divergence is positively correlated with a more shallow bear market. With zero divergence at this stage, if a surprise bear market does develop here, then it would likely be shallow.

A longer divergence between price and the AD line would be expected towards the end of Grand Super Cycle wave I.

It is possible that cycle wave V may continue until 2029, if the 2020s mirror the 1920s (although the alternate weekly wave count fits this expectation better).

Cycle wave V would most likely subdivide as an impulse. But if overlapping develops, then an ending diagonal should be considered. This chart considers the more common impulse.

Primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Primary wave 3 has now moved well above the end of primary wave 1. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 3,588.11.

There is already a Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves I and III within Super Cycle wave (V). The S&P500 often exhibits a Fibonacci ratio between two of its actionary waves but rarely between all three; it is less likely that cycle wave V would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio. The target for Super Cycle wave (V) to end would best be calculated at primary degree, but that cannot be done until all of primary waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete.

An acceleration channel is drawn about cycle wave V. Draw the first trend line from the end of primary wave 1 to the last high, then place a parallel copy on the end of primary wave 2. Keep redrawing the channel as price continues higher. When primary wave 3 is complete, then this channel would be drawn using Elliott’s first technique and may show were primary wave 4 may find support.

MAIN DAILY CHART

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It is possible that minor wave 3 may be over and minor wave 4 may continue further as an expanded flat. Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave1 price territory below 3,983.87.

Minor wave 4 may continue for another one to very few days. It would be extremely likely that minute wave c would make at least a slight new low below the end of minute wave a at 4,118.38 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat.

Targets are calculated for intermediate wave (3) and for primary wave 3. As price approaches the first target for intermediate wave (3) and if the structure is complete and technical analysis suggests a pullback may occur, then the target may be useful. But if price moves through the first target or the structure is incomplete, then the second target may be used.

MAIN HOURLY CHART

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If minor wave 4 has begun, then it may exhibit close proportion to minor wave 2 so that the wave count has the right look at higher time frames. Minor wave 2 was a shallow 0.50 double zigzag lasting 6 sessions. Minor wave 4 may be more shallow and may continue now for another one to three sessions. Minor wave 4 may exhibit alternation as a more time consuming triangle or combination, or it may exhibit alternation as a quicker flat. So far it has lasted 9 sessions.

Minor wave 4 may be unfolding as an expanded flat. At this stage, this structure looks most likely. Minute wave a may be a complete zigzag. Minute wave b may be a complete double zigzag; minute wave b is now a 1.38 length of minute wave a. Minute wave c would be extremely likely to move at least slightly below the end of minute wave a at 4,118.38 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat. At 4,101 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a; this may see minor wave 4 end about support at the lower edge of the blue Elliott channel, which is copied over from the daily chart.

If minor wave 4 is unfolding as a double combination, then the first structure in a double may be a complete zigzag, labelled minute wave w. The double may now be joined by a complete three in the opposite direction, a double zigzag labelled minute wave x. The second structure in a double, labelled minute wave y, may now continue sideways as a flat or triangle, to end about the same level as the first at 4,118.38.

If minor wave 4 is unfolding as a triangle, then waves a, b  and c may be complete. If it continues any further, then wave c downwards may not move below the end of wave a at 4,118.38. The triangle idea would be invalidated below this point. Wave d upwards may then unfold and may not move beyond the end of wave b at 4,218.78. Wave e downwards may then unfold and may not move below the end of wave c. Sideways movement in an ever decreasing range may continue for another one to two weeks.

As minor wave 4 continues, alternate hourly wave counts may be required to outline the different structural possibilities. It is still not possible to know which structure minor wave 4 may be.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 3,983.87.

FIRST ALTERNATE DAILY CHART

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Intermediate wave (1) within primary wave 3 may be complete.

Intermediate wave (2) may also be complete as a triple zigzag.

Intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 3 may now be underway and may have passed its middle.

Minor waves 1 and 2 within intermediate wave (3) may now be complete. When it arrives, then minor wave 4 may last about one to two weeks and may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 3,983.87. While minor wave 5 continues, then within it no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 4,118.38.

When minor wave 4 may be complete, then the target for intermediate wave (3) may also be calculated at minor degree. At that stage, the target may widen to a zone or it may change.

Draw a best fit channel about intermediate wave (3) as shown. Draw the first trend line from the end of minor wave 1 to the end of minute wave iii, then place a parallel copy on the end of minor wave 2.

FIRST ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

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A target is calculated for minor wave 3 to reach a common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minuette waves (i) and (ii) within minute wave v may be complete. If it continues any lower, then minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) below 4,118.38.

This wave count now expects the middle of a third wave at two low degrees to unfold higher this week. An increase in upwards momentum is possible.

SECOND ALTERNATE DAILY CHART

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It is possible that intermediate wave (3) may be complete and intermediate wave (4) may be incomplete. However, intermediate wave (3) would be shorter than intermediate wave (1) by 245.68 points. This is unusual for this market, so it has a low probability. The S&P very commonly exhibits extended third waves.

If intermediate wave (4) is underway, then it may continue for another two to few weeks. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 3,950.43. Intermediate wave (4) would most likely end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3) at 4,029.52.

SECOND ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

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Intermediate wave (4) may be beginning with a five wave structure lower, which may be minor wave A. The degree of labelling may also be moved down one degree; it may be an impulse for minute wave a within minor wave a.

The current fourth wave bounce within an unfolding impulse may not move into first wave price territory above 4,192.83.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 3,950.43.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

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This wave count sees subdivisions within cycle wave V the same except the degree of labelling is moved down one degree. Primary wave 1 within cycle wave V may be incomplete.

Within primary wave 1: Intermediate waves (1) and (2) may be complete, intermediate wave (3) may be extending, and intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 3,588.11.

When primary wave 1 may be complete (in several months time), then a deeper and longer lasting pullback for primary wave 2 may unfold. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 2,191.86.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A series of higher highs and higher lows off the low of March 2020 continues. The last short-term swing low is now at 3,723.34. While this remains intact, the dominant view should be of an upwards trend. There is a long way for this trend to run before conditions may become extreme.

This chart has the look of a sustainable bull market in a relatively early stage; there is as yet no evidence that a larger correction should begin here. Although RSI has just now reached overbought, this market has a strong bullish bias and RSI can move deeply overbought and remain there for years prior to the bull market ending.

For the short term, last week closes as a small Gravestone Doji, a bearish candlestick reversal pattern. This supports the second Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The series of higher highs and higher lows from the low of the 30th of October continues.

Pullbacks are a normal and to be expected part of a bullish trend.

Support for On Balance Volume remains strong. This supports the first alternate Elliott wave count.

Today a Hammer pattern, a bullish candlestick reversal pattern, supports the first alternate Elliott wave count.

BREADTH – AD LINE

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

Lowry’s Operating Companies Only AD line has made a new all time high on the 29th of April. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

Large caps all time high: 4,218.78 on April 29, 2021.

Mid caps all time high: 2,778.84 on April 29, 2021.

Small caps all time high: 1,399.31 on March 12, 2021.

The last new high is found in large and mid caps. Small caps now have a fairly long lag of over a month; this fits with the main Elliott wave count, which expects a minor degree correction may continue. Small caps can lag and large caps can lead for some time while price travels a reasonable distance. Lagging small caps at this stage does not necessarily mean a larger correction should begin here.

Last week again price and the AD line both make new all time highs. Upwards movement has support from rising market breadth. This is bullish and supports the first alternate Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Today both price and the AD line have moved lower. Price has made a new low below the low of two sessions prior, but the AD line has not. This divergence is bullish and supports the first alternate Elliott wave count.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Inverted VIX remains well below all time highs. The all time high for inverted VIX was in the week beginning October 30, 2017. There is over 3 years of bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX. This bearish divergence may develop further before the bull market ends. It may be a very early indicator of an upcoming bear market, but it is not proving to be useful in timing.

For the second week in a row price has moved higher, but inverted VIX has moved lower. This bearish divergence supports the alternate Elliott wave count.

Comparing VIX and VVIX at the weekly chart level:

Last week both VIX and VVIX have moved higher. There is no new divergence.

There is now a cluster of three weeks of short-term bearish divergence for price. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Both price and inverted VIX have moved lower today. Inverted VIX has made a new low below the prior low of the 22nd of April, but price has not. This divergence is bearish and supports the main Elliott wave count.

Comparing VIX and VVIX at the daily chart level:

Today both VIX and VVIX have moved higher. VIX has made a new high above the prior high of the 22nd of April, but VVIX has not. This divergence is bullish for price.

There is still a cluster of short-term bearish divergence for price.

DOW THEORY

Dow Theory confirms a new bull market with new highs made on a closing basis:

DJIA: 29,568.57 – closed above on 16th November 2020.

DJT: 11,623.58 – closed above on 7th October 2020.

Most recently, last week both DJIA and DJT have made new all time highs. An ongoing bull market is again confirmed by Dow Theory.

Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory, confirmation of a bull market would require new highs made on a closing basis:

S&P500: 3,393.52 – closed above on 21st August 2020.

Nasdaq: 9,838.37 – closed above on June 8, 2020.

The following major swing lows would need to be seen on a closing basis for Dow Theory to confirm a change from bull to a bear market:

DJIA: 18,213.65

DJT: 6,481.20

Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory, confirmation of a new bear market would require new lows on a closing basis:

S&P500: 2,191.86

Nasdaq: 6,631.42

Published @ 06:53 p.m. ET.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.