S&P 500: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – March 9, 2021
Today the AD line and VVIX give signals that support the main hourly Elliott wave count for the short term.
Summary: The pullback may now be complete; next support may be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 3,667 if it continues lower.
Today a new high by small caps, a bullish signal from the AD line, and a bullish signal from VVIX / VIX support the main hourly Elliott wave count.
Both main and alternate wave counts (daily and weekly) expect the low of the 30th of October to not be breached for many months.
The next target for the upwards trend is at 4,464 and thereafter at 4,606. About this target another multi-week pullback or consolidation may develop.
An alternate wave count at the weekly chart level has a slightly lower probability with the main weekly chart.
The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.
Monthly charts are last updated here with video here.
MAIN WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Cycle wave V may last from one to several years. So far it is in its eleventh month.
This wave count may allow time for the AD line to diverge from price as price makes final highs before the end of the bull market. The AD line most commonly diverges a minimum of 4 months prior to the end of a bull market. A longer divergence is positively correlated with a deeper bear market. A shorter divergence is positively correlated with a more shallow bear market. With zero divergence at this stage, if a surprise bear market does develop here, then it would likely be shallow.
Cycle wave V would most likely subdivide as an impulse. But if overlapping develops, then an ending diagonal should be considered. This chart considers the more common impulse.
Primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete.
Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.
Primary wave 3 has now moved well above the end of primary wave 1. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 3,588.11.
There is already a Fibonacci ratio between cycle waves I and III within Super Cycle wave (V). The S&P500 often exhibits a Fibonacci ratio between two of its actionary waves but rarely between all three; it is less likely that cycle wave V would exhibit a Fibonacci ratio. The target for Super Cycle wave (V) to end would best be calculated at primary degree, but that cannot be done until all of primary waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete.
The blue weekly best fit channel is slightly adjusted, so that the lower edge may better show where price may find support. Copy this over to the daily chart.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
The daily chart focusses on the unfolding impulse of primary wave 3.
Intermediate wave (1) within primary wave 3 may have been complete at the last all time high and the last pullback may be intermediate wave (2).
Intermediate wave (2) may have continued lower as a triple zigzag. While triple zigzags are reasonably rare, they are not the rarest Elliott wave structure and may occur in a second wave position.
Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 3,209.45.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Intermediate wave (2) may have continued lower as a triple zigzag. If labelling of this structure is correct, then it may not continue lower (three is the maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple).
Intermediate wave (3) may only subdivide as an impulse. Within the impulse: Minor wave 1 may be almost complete, and minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 3,723.34.
Intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 3 should exhibit an increase in upwards momentum.
ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
If the degree of labelling is moved down one degree within intermediate wave (2), then it is possible that only minor wave A within intermediate wave (2) is complete at the last low.
Intermediate wave (2) may continue further as a flat. Minor wave B within a flat must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of minor wave A. Minor wave B may make a new high above the start of minor wave A as in an expanded flat. The common range for minor wave B would be from 1 to 1.38 times the length of minor wave A. Minor wave B should exhibit weakness; it may lack support from volume and may exhibit bearish divergence between price and RSI at its end.
Intermediate wave (2) may not continue sideways as a combination if the first wave down is correctly labelled as a triple zigzag. This structure may not be relabelled minor wave W of a combination because minor wave W may only subdivide as a single corrective structure and not a multiple.
Intermediate wave (2) may not continue sideways as a triangle. Triangles do not unfold as the sole corrective structure in second wave positions.
ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This wave count moves the degree of labelling within cycle wave V down one degree. Primary wave 1 may be incomplete.
This alternate is more bullish than the main weekly chart. It expects that cycle wave V may last many more years than the main weekly chart. This wave count now considers intermediate waves (3) and (4) within primary wave 1 may be complete. Intermediate wave (3) is shorter than intermediate wave (1), which reduces the probability of this alternate wave count.
When primary wave 1 may be complete, then a multi-week pullback for primary wave 2 should begin. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 2,191.86.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 1 may be complete. If it continues lower, then intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 3,588.11.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Support at On Balance Volume has held and it has turned up.
The doji candlestick this week is not on its own a reversal; it is a sign of a balance of bulls and bears. Doji may occur within downwards trends.
The last swing low of the 29th of January remains intact. A series of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. The last two weeks of downwards movement still looks most likely to be another pullback within an ongoing upwards trend.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The series of higher highs and higher lows from the low of the 30th of October continues.
Support at 3,725 has at the end of last week held. The last swing low on the 29th of January remains intact; while this has not been breached, an upwards trend may be assumed to remain in place as a series of higher highs and higher lows remains. Pullbacks are a normal part of an upwards trend.
One or more of the following may be seen in order to have confidence that this pullback is over:
– A 90% up day or two back to back 80% up days following within 4 sessions of a 90% down day or two back to back 80% down days. With no 90% down day nor two back to back 80% down days so far, this set up is not developing.
– A bullish signal from On Balance Volume.
– A bullish signal from the AD line (this is now in place at the end of last week).
– A bullish candlestick reversal pattern that has support from volume.
ADX now indicates a downwards trend and, with RSI well in neutral territory, there is plenty of room for it to run. The last swing low of 29th of January is very important; if this is breached, then this analysis should become more bearish. It is still entirely possible that a low is in place today.
Now two long upper wicks suggest a downwards session tomorrow.
BREADTH – AD LINE
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.
Lowry’s Operating Companies Only AD line has made a new all time high on the 12th of February. This is a strong bullish signal and supports the main Elliott wave count.
Large caps all time high: 3,950.43 on February 16, 2021.
Mid caps all time high: 2,581.02 on February 24, 2021.
Small caps all time high: 1,352.27 on March 9, 2021.
Last week price has moved lower, but the AD line has moved lower. This divergence is bullish for the short term.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
Today both price and the AD line have moved higher. The AD line has made a new short-term high above the prior swing high of 1st of March, but price has not. This divergence is bullish and supports the main hourly Elliott wave count.
Today small caps have made a new all time high. This rise is led by small caps, and this occurs commonly in the early stages of a bull market, so it is a bullish signal.
VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
Inverted VIX remains well below all time highs. The all time high for inverted VIX was in the week beginning October 30, 2017. There is over 3 years of bearish divergence between price and inverted VIX. There is all of long, mid and short-term bearish divergence. This bearish divergence may develop further before the bull market ends. It may be a very early indicator of an upcoming bear market, but it is not proving to be useful in timing.
Last week price has moved lower, but inverted VIX has moved higher. This divergence is bullish for the short term and agrees with bullish divergence at the weekly chart level between price and the AD line.
Comparing VIX and VVIX at the weekly chart level:
Last week both VIX and VVIX have moved lower. There is no new short-term divergence.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.
Short-term bearish divergence noted in last analysis has been followed by upwards movement, so it may have failed.
Today both price and inverted VIX have moved higher. There is no new divergence.
Comparing VIX and VVIX at the daily chart level:
Today both VIX and VVIX have moved lower. VVIX has moved below the prior short-term swing low of the 1st of March, but VIX has not. Volatility of VIX is declining faster than VIX. This divergence is bullish for price for the short term and supports the main hourly Elliott wave count.
DOW THEORY
Dow Theory confirms a new bull market with new highs made on a closing basis:
DJIA: 29,568.57 – closed above on 16th November 2020.
DJT: 11,623.58 – closed above on 7th October 2020.
Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory, confirmation of a bull market would require new highs made on a closing basis:
S&P500: 3,393.52 – closed above on 21st August 2020.
Nasdaq: 9,838.37 – closed above on June 8, 2020.
The following major swing lows would need to be seen on a closing basis for Dow Theory to confirm a change from bull to a bear market:
DJIA: 18,213.65
DJT: 6,481.20
Adding in the S&P and Nasdaq for an extended Dow Theory, confirmation of a new bear market would require new lows on a closing basis:
S&P500: 2,191.86
Nasdaq: 6,631.42
Published @ 05:49 p.m. ET.
—
Careful risk management protects your trading account(s).
Follow my two Golden Rules:
1. Always trade with stops.
2. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.
—
New updates to this analysis are in bold.