Commentary and charts of Lara’s Weekly, an end of week Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 and GOLD and USOIL, for week ending 13th April, 2018, is published on the Elliott Wave Gold website. You can access the analysis here.
Commentary and charts of Lara’s Weekly, an end of week Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 and GOLD and USOIL, for week ending 13th April, 2018, is published on the Elliott Wave Gold website. You can access the analysis here.
2008 was a descending triangle. The bear case you present has a second abc to complete supercyclewave II. Could we have a repeat descending triangle to initiate the last leg of a super cycle wave II or IV depending on your wave count. DSI was at historic highs at the peak for the year. PE multiples are at historic highs even at the lows of the year. Interest rates bottomed two years ago. The initial wave down clearly looks like a five wave move and most are counting it as three waves. Why are so any people soo bullish? Are you really that convinced that we could not be in the bear case senario? If so, what is it that strongly dispels the bear case?
1. In EW it’s not referred to as a descending triangle, it would be referred to as an ending contracting diagonal. And so I can only assume that’s what you’re referring to in your comment.
That movement simply does not fit the rules for an ending contracting diagonal. It does fit either a single or double zigzag, or an impulse.
2. the bearish case should now really be discarded. If we’re seeing Grand SuperCycle II incomplete, then currently the count would be expecting SuperCycle wave (b) upwards completing. SuperCycle wave (b) is now 2.49 X SuperCycle wave (a), which is longer than the conventionally allowable maximum of 2X. So the idea should be discarded based upon a very low probability.
A chart of what you’re outlining would really assist in my understanding of your questions.
The wave down to the last low of the 9th of February will fit either as three or a five. My now 8 years of daily experience with this market has taught me that it does not always have threes that look only like threes, nor fives that look only like fives. The proportion of the corrections within its waves are not always good, meaning at higher time frames they don’t have a perfect look. And so I’ve learned the hard way to consider both possibilities.
I remain very bullish because there is no divergence yet between price and the AD line. If the S&P has begun a major bear market then it would have done so with no prior divergence between price and breadth. That would be a first in almost 100 years. And so the probability must necessarily be judged to be very low.
That’s all in my analysis. So I’m repeating myself here.
And finally, I would ask you please to pose questions in a more polite manner. “are you really so convinced…” comes across as rather rude.
Sorry, about the way I asked, I can understand how it could be perceived as rude. I truey meant no disrespect to you, so please accept my apology. Thank you for your response!
No worries Sir.
Your comment did make me look again at my bigger picture analysis and prompt me to realise one of the wave counts should be discarded.
And so I’ve updated it. It’s now more relevant to current market price action.