Movement to a new high has clarified the situation. There has been no trend change.
If the bullish alternate is correct then upwards movement should continue to breach the upper edge of the maroon channel from the monthly chart.
If the more bearish main wave count is correct then sometimes it is okay for C waves to breach these channels, but I would expect to see less of a breach.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
This wave count has a higher probability than the alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.
Price may continue to find resistance along the upper edge of the big maroon channel from the monthly chart, if the upper trend line is pushed out to encompass all of primary wave A.
At 1,858.03 cycle wave b would reach 138% the length of cycle wave a. This wave count sees a super cycle expanded flat unfolding, and the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat is 138% the length of the A wave. Above this point this wave count would reduce in probability and it would be more likely that a longer term bull market is underway.
Intermediate wave (5) may be incomplete with just minor waves 1 and now probably 2 within it completed. Movement above 1,775.22 has confirmed this wave count.
At 1,826 minor wave 3 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 is extended, so minor waves 3 and 5 may not be.
At 1,864 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This is the most common ratio between first and fifth waves so this target has a good probability.
Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,746.20.
So far within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave iii is incomplete.
Within minute wave iii probably only minuette wave (i) is complete. I would expect some downwards movement for minuette wave (ii) to begin shortly, maybe tomorrow or the day after. There is not enough downwards movement at the end of Wednesday’s session to indicate that minuette wave (i) is completed.
Ratios within minuette wave (i) so far are: subminuette wave iii is 0.22 points short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and so far subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii.
Minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i at 1,807. Minute wave iii should breach the acceleration channel to the upside.
This wave count expects that the middle of this third wave has not yet begun, and so upwards momentum should increase further (after a second wave correction for minuette wave (ii) ).
Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,760.64.
Bullish Alternate Wave Count.
It is possible that we are and have been in a new bull market for a cycle degree fifth wave for the last four and a half years. Cycle waves should last from one to several years (as a rough guideline).
At this stage this bullish alternate does not diverge from the main wave count. The end of intermediate wave (1) is calculated using the same wave lengths and ratios.
When intermediate wave (1) could again be considered complete then this alternate would also expect downwards movement. At that stage the direction expected would be the same as the main wave count, but this alternate would expect a corrective structure downwards where the main wave count would expect an impulse downwards.
This bullish alternate expects that only a first wave within a primary degree third wave is coming closer to an end. When the second wave at intermediate wave degree is completed this alternate would expect a very strong and sustained rise with a good increase in upwards momentum. That strong rise is still probably months away.