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Yesterday’s analysis expected upwards movement for both a main and alternate hourly wave count. This is exactly what happened. The structure of this upwards movement (is it a three or a five?) will show which wave count is correct.

I have just the one wave count for you today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

Intermediate wave (4) is now over and lasted 14 days, just one more than a Fibonacci 13.

If intermediate wave (5) exhibits a Fibonacci time relationship it may end in a Fibonacci 13 days (or sessions) on 28th October. Please note: this is a rough guideline only. Within this wave count there are no Fibonacci time relationships at primary or intermediate degree. Sometimes this happens, but not often enough to be reliable.

October is a common month for big trend changes with the S&P 500. This wave count could very well complete the structure for intermediate wave (5) this month.

At 1,764 primary wave C would reach equality with primary wave A.

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,646.47.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Upwards movement for Wednesday’s session subdivides nicely into a five wave structure. This is most likely minute wave i within minor wave 3.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.33 points longer than 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

At the end of Wednesday’s session there is no downwards movement. It is not possible to tell whether minuette wave (v) is completed or not. It may move slightly higher tomorrow before it is complete.

I would expect a second wave correction for minute wave ii to complete tomorrow. It should not show up on the daily chart. Overall tomorrow I would expect new highs and upwards movement, with a second wave correction during the session.

The mid term target for minor wave 3 remains the same. At 1,760 minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minute wave i. This target may be two or three days away.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,695.93.