Last analysis expected a little upwards movement before a trend change and a new low.
Price has moved higher and there was no trend change.
Upwards movement remains below the invalidation point on the hourly chart.
I have two hourly charts for you to end the week. I will use confirmation / invalidation points to determine which is correct on Monday.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A). At 1,739 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.
If price rises through this first target the next target will be used. At 1,849 minor wave 5 would reach equality with minor wave 3.
When minute waves iii and iv within minor wave 5 are complete I will add to the target calculation at minute wave degree, so at that stage it may change.
Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 8 days, minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration at 98 days, and minor wave 4 lasted 22 days, just one day longer than a Fibonacci 21.
Minor wave 5 may not exhibit a Fibonacci time relationship. The next possibility may be the 29th of October (give or take two days either side of this date) where minor wave 5 would have lasted a Fibonacci 89 days. This is a date to look out for, but cannot be relied upon because Fibonacci time relationships do not occur often enough to be reliable.
Keep drawing the wider parallel channels from the monthly chart and copy them over to the daily chart.
Main Hourly Wave Count.
There is now a very clear trend channel breach of this downwards movement indicating it is probably over. It can subdivide as a three wave zigzag. The difference between this main wave count and the alternate below is within the triangle labeled here micro wave 4 within subminuette wave a. If submicro wave (A) within the triangle was a flat correction, then this may have been where the triangle began.
There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c within this zigzag.
Movement above 1,696.55 would invalidate the alternate below and confirm this main wave count.
If minuette wave (iii) has begun then no second wave correction within it may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,670.36.
At 1,773 minuette wave (iii) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
At 1,777 minute wave iii would reach equality in length with minute wave i. When I know where minuette waves (iii) and (iv) within minute wave iii have ended I will add to this target calculation at minuette wave degree, so it may widen to a zone or it may change.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
Because the trend channel about this downwards movement is clearly breached, and because double zigzags are less common than single zigzags, this wave count has a lower probability.
This wave count has a slightly better fit for the triangle, here seen as beginning later and as a B wave.
This wave count requires one final wave down most likely to make a new low. At 1,666 micro wave C would reach equality in length with micro wave A.
Within the second zigzag micro wave B may not move beyond the start of micro wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,696.55.