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Last analysis expected more upwards movement which is what happened. We also have a following second wave correction which was expected.

The wave counts remain the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count agrees with MACD and has some nice Fibonacci ratios in price and Fibonacci relationships in time.

Minor wave 3 is 15.1 points longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 5.44 points longer than equality with minute wave iii.

At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A). At 1,739 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

Within minor wave 5 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,560.33.

Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 8 days, minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration at 98 days, and minor wave 4 lasted 22 days, just one day longer than a Fibonacci 21.

Minor wave 5 may not exhibit a Fibonacci time relationship. The next possibility may be the 29th of October (give or take two days either side of this date) where minor wave 5 would have lasted a Fibonacci 89 days.

Keep drawing the wider parallel channels from the monthly chart and copy them over to the daily chart.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

We now have a five wave impulse upwards on the hourly chart for minuette wave (i) within minute wave iii.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 2.38 longer than equality with subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette waves iii or i.

On the five minute chart the downwards wave labeled subminuette wave a within minuette wave (ii) subdivides most clearly as a three wave zigzag, as does subminuette wave b upwards. Minuette wave (ii) may be unfolding as an expanded flat correction. Subminuette wave c is extremely likely to make a new low below the end of subminuette wave a at 1,640.62 to avoid a truncation. At 1,630.50 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

When minuette wave (ii) is complete then I will calculate a target for minuette wave (iii) upwards for you. The most likely length would be 54.6 points, 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,628.05.

Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate 2013

While price remains below 1,709.67 it will remain possible that we have recently seen a trend change at cycle degree. However, we should always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

This is a huge trend change. The new downwards trend should last from one to several years and take price substantially below 666.76. We need some confirmation before having confidence in this wave count.

We should assume the trend is upwards until this wave count is confirmed with movement below 1,560.33, and then with a breach of the black parallel channel on the daily chart.

This wave count is the same as the main wave count, except the degree of labeling in the final upwards wave of minor wave 5 is moved up one degree.

S&P 500 hourly alternate 2013

Movement beyond the end of a completed flat correction within minute wave ii indicates this correction is continuing further as a double flat, or double combination.

Because the upwards wave labeled subminuette wave a within minuette wave (y) subdivides as a three wave structure, subminuette wave (y) is likely to be a flat and minute wave ii a double flat. The purpose of double flats is to take up time and move price sideways, so this alternate wave count expects sideways movement for another two or so sessions.

Within the second flat correction subminuette wave b must reach a minimum of 90% the length of subminuette wave a at 1,643 or below.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This alternate is invalidated with movement above 1,709.67.