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Last analysis expected upwards movement for all or most of Monday’s session. This is not what happened. The fourth wave correction may already have been over and very brief, as price simply moved lower. The target has not yet been reached and the structure is incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count agrees with MACD and has some nice Fibonacci ratios in price and Fibonacci relationships in time.

Minor wave 3 is 15.1 points longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 5.44 points longer than equality with minute wave iii.

At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A).

Within minor wave 5 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,560.33.

Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 8 days, minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration at 98 days, and minor wave 4 lasted 22 days, just one day longer than a Fibonacci 21.

Minor wave 5 may not exhibit a Fibonacci time relationship. However, the next Fibonacci number in the sequence is 55 which could see minor wave 5 ending on 10th September (give or take a day or two either side). This may be the next possibility. At that time I will see if the structure could be considered complete, or not.

Keep drawing the wider parallel channels from the monthly chart and copy them over to the daily chart.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

Subminuette wave iv may already be over as a brief expanded flat. The subdivisions fit nicely on the five minute chart.

Subminuette wave iii is 0.46 points short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 1,643 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i, but because there is already a good Fibonacci ratio within this impulse it is less likely that subminuette wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette waves i or iii. Minuette wave degree may be more a more reliable target calculation. At 1,635 minuette wave (c) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Within subminuette wave v on the five minute chart this structure is incomplete. It needs micro waves 4 upwards and 5 downwards to complete it. These small waves may complete in one or two more sessions.

If minute wave ii lasts two more sessions it will end a Fibonacci 13 sessions.

The next wave should be a third wave upwards.

We may draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (c) using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the high of submineutte wave ii. Expect downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of this channel. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minuette wave (c) is over and the next wave should be underway.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,560.33.

Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 hourly alternate 2013

While price remains below 1,709.67 it will remain possible that we have recently seen a trend change at cycle degree. However, we should always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

We should assume the upwards trend remains valid until this wave count is confirmed with movement below 1,560.33, and then with a breach of the black parallel channel on the daily chart.

The recent increase in downwards momentum fits nicely with this wave count, but it is not enough to confirm it.

The subdivisions of this hourly wave count are the same as for the main wave count because A-B-C and 1-2-3 both subdivide in exactly the same way, 5-3-5.

At 1,635 subminuette wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

When this downwards impulse is completed then this alternate wave count again diverges in expectation from the main wave count. At that stage this alternate would expect upwards movement to be a correction for subminuette wave iv which may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. At that stage movement above 1,684.91 would invalidate this alternate wave count and confirm the main wave count.