Yesterday’s analysis expected upwards movement for Tuesday’s session. Price did move upwards to make a new high beyond Monday, before turning lower. Price remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart and the wave count remains valid.
We have still the same one daily and one hourly chart.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
This wave count agrees with MACD and has some nice Fibonacci ratios in price and Fibonacci relationships in time.
Minor wave 3 is 15.1 points longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is 5.44 points longer than equality with minute wave iii.
At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A). At 1,739 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. At 1,736 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.
Within minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,560.33.
Minor wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 21 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 8 days, minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci duration at 98 days, and minor wave 4 lasted 22 days, just one day longer than a Fibonacci 21.
At this stage minor wave 5 has lasted 25 sessions. A further nine sessions would see it ending in a Fibonacci 34. At that time I will look to see if the structure could be considered complete. If it can we shall have an alternate wave count to consider the possibility again of a trend change at cycle degree.
Keep drawing the wider parallel channels from the monthly chart and copy them over to the daily chart.
Minute wave v may be extending. Within it minuette waves (i) and probably also (ii) may now be complete. Within minuette wave (iii) on the five minute chart subminuette wave i subdivides nicely as a leading diagonal, and this is followed by a deep second wave correction which is typical.
The short term target remains the same. At 1,707 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If minuette wave (iii) does not end there then the next target calculation is the next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence. At 1,723 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
If this wave count is correct then we should see some increase in upwards momentum tomorrow and towards the end of this week.
It is possible, but unlikely, that minuette wave (ii) may not be over and may be moving further sideways and a little lower as a flat correction or a double. If it does continue it may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,676.03.