Last analysis expected downwards movement from the main wave count, and upwards movement from the alternate. Although price has moved higher it remains below the confidence point on the alternate wave count. The main wave count still has a slightly higher probability because it still has a better overall look.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
The widest maroon channel is copied over from the monthly chart and contains all of cycle wave b. It may be that price found final resistance at the upper edge of this channel.
The black channel in the middle is drawn about the zigzag of primary wave Y. Draw the first trend line from the start of primary wave Y to the end of intermediate wave (B). Place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (A). The upper edge of this channel also may be where price found resistance and where intermediate wave (C) ended.
The smallest blue channel is the most conservative best fit I can see for intermediate wave (C). It is very clearly breached by downwards movement.
I have looked back to September 2000 on the daily chart at smaller narrow channels about intermediate degree movements. Most of the time a breach like this indicates a trend change, but not always. What would give me more confidence in this trend change is a clear breach of the black intermediate degree channel. When that is breached I will calculate downwards targets for you.
There is no classic technical divergence between price and MACD on the daily or weekly charts. This is possible, but unusual for the S&P 500. This must reduce the probability of this wave count. We must still seriously consider the alternate.
There are no Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5 within intermediate wave (C). There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C). This lack of Fibonacci ratios slightly reduces the probability of this main wave count.
Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,687.18.
Upwards movement is an extension of subminuette wave c within minuette wave (ii). This structure now has a better fit and look on the hourly chart, and the subdivisions fit correctly and are in the same place on the five minute chart as on the hourly.
At 1,629 micro wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of micro wave 3, and minuette wave (ii) would reach to a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. Micro wave 3 does not have a Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1.
Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5)
Alternate Wave Count.
The biggest problem with this wave count and the reason it is an alternate is the size of minor wave 4: it is out of proportion to all the other corrections within intermediate wave (C) and clearly breaches a channel containing intermediate wave (C) no matter how that channel is drawn. Sometimes fourth waves do this and so we must consider this possibility.
Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 3 is 23 points longer than 4.236 the length of minor wave 1.
The lack of classic technical divergence between price and MACD supports this wave count. A final fifth wave up with slowing momentum would provide divergence and give a typical look.
At 1,740 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A).
Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,409.16.
This alternate also expects more upwards movement. Within minute wave i there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) so it is more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio for minuette wave (v) to either of (i) or (iii). At 1,639 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
Within minute wave i minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,586.45.
The channel drawn about minute wave i is drawn first with a trend line from the lows of minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) may end mid way within this channel. It may also find resistance about the upper edge of the wider channel that contains minor wave 4 downwards.