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Last week’s analysis of Oil expected more upwards movement which is what has happened. The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is complete and minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double zigzag. Within the double zigzag structure of minor wave 2 the first zigzag labeled minute wave w is complete, as is the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x. Within minute wave y zigzag minuette wave (a) subdivides into a five wave impulse. Minuette wave (b) is a completed zigzag, and minuette wave (c) upwards is incomplete.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within the structure of minuette wave (c) subminuette waves i through to iv may be complete. Minuette wave (c) may be unfolding as an impulse.

Subminuette wave iii is just 0.04 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 96.49 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

At 98.36 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a) within the zigzag of minute wave y. This would bring minor wave 2 right up to the start of minor wave 1.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (c). Draw the first trend line from the lows of subminuette waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the high of subminuette wave iii. Expect subminuette wave v to most likely end midway within this channel.

As soon as we can see another five wave structure upwards complete from the low of subminuette wave iv then it will be possible that subminuette wave v is complete. At that stage the short term invalidation point must be removed and we would expect a trend change.

Within subminuette wave v no second wave correction may move beyond its start. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 94.07.

If this wave count is invalidated with downwards movement then I would expect that this final fifth wave has come to an end and so minor wave 2 in its entirety may be over.