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Movement below 1,548.24 invalidated the main hourly wave count and confirmed the alternate on the hourly chart. At that stage the target was 1,555. Price has reached down to 1,545.13 for the session.

At the daily chart level the wave count remains mostly the same, targets are the same, and the expected end date is the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

The structure is within the second zigzag of a double labeled primary wave Y. Within this second zigzag intermediate wave (C) is most likely incomplete.

Within intermediate wave (C) minor waves 1 through to 4 are most likely complete. We may use Elliott’s channeling technique to draw a channel about the impulse of intermediate wave (C). Draw the first trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. At this stage it looks like minor wave 5 may end about the upper edge of this channel.

At 1,573 cycle wave b would reach 105% the length of cycle wave a. This is the minimum requirement for a B wave in relation to an A wave within an expanded flat, and as expanded flats are the most common type of flat this price point has a good probability of being reached.

Also at 1,573 minute wave v within minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

At 1,575 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

If price continues to move higher through the first target then we may use the second target. At 1,589 minute wave v within minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minute wave i. At 1,590 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 1,591 minor wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This gives us a high probability two point target based upon three wave degrees.

Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,409.16.

Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 1 has no Fibonacci duration lasting 4 days, minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci 3 days, minor wave 3 lasted a Fibonacci 55 days, and minor wave 4 lasted a Fibonacci 5 days. So far minor wave 5 has lasted 14 days and is incomplete. A possible end may be at a Fibonacci 21 days which will be in another 7 sessions. If it does not end there then a further 13 sessions would take it to a Fibonacci 34. At each Fibonacci time duration I will look at the structure to see if it could be complete and if so we shall have an alternate wave count for that possibility.

At intermediate degree wave (C) has so far lasted 81 sessions. In another 8 sessions it will have lasted a Fibonacci 89.

The most likely end to this trend may be 27th March, 2013 (give or take one day either side). However, Fibonacci time relationships are not always reliable. This is a guideline only.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

This main hourly wave count follows on directly from the alternate hourly wave count at last analysis.

It would be likely that minute wave iv is complete as it is in proportion to minute wave ii and exhibits perfect alternation. Minute wave ii was a single deep zigzag and minute wave iv subdivides on the five minute chart as a double zigzag, and is shallow.

Minute wave iii was 3.11 points short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i. I would not expect to see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of i or iii.

Within minute wave v minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i) at 1,572.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This main hourly wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,545.13.

If the main wave count is invalidated we may use the alternate below.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

It is possible that minute wave iv is incomplete. Within it minuette wave (a) may be unfolding as a leading diagonal. This alternate wave count expects about two more sessions of choppy overlapping downwards movement to complete minute wave iv.

Within the leading diagonal subminuette wave v may not be truncated and must make a new low below the end of subminuette wave iii at 1,545.13. Thereafter, minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) at 1,563.62.

If minute wave iv continues it may end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 1,539.88. Minute wave iv may overshoot the channel containing the impulse for minor wave 5. If it does we may redraw the channel using Elliott’s second technique.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,525.34.