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Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from the Dow for the week which is what has happened.

Again at this stage the wave count may be seen as complete at all wave degrees. I have a main and an alternate hourly chart for you. We may use invalidation / confirmation points and trend channels as an indicator of a possible trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

DJIA daily 2013

The final wave upwards, wave 5 blue, within the ending contracting diagonal of intermediate wave (C) may be complete.

The structure at all wave degrees may now be complete. Alternatively, wave (v) green within wave c pink may extend and continue higher.

Because the diagonal is contracting wave 3 blue is shorter than wave 1 blue. Wave 3 may never be the shortest wave and so wave 5 blue has a maximum length of equality with wave 3 blue at 14,098.27.

Price has may have found resistance at the upper trend line of the diagonal. This may be an indication of an end to upwards movement.

Because this possible trend change is a large one at primary degree it is wise to wait for confirmation. We may consider movement below the lower trend line of the diagonal as confirmation of this trend change. At that stage I would calculate downwards targets. To do so prior to confirmation would be premature.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

DJIA hourly 2013

Within the structure of wave c pink all waves may now be complete.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between waves a and c pink.

Ratios within wave c pink are: wave (iii) green has no Fibonacci ratio to wave (i) green, and wave (v) green is just 0.52 points short of 0.236 the length of wave (iii) green.

Ratios within wave (iii) green are: wave iii orange is just 1.07 points longer than 1.618 the length of wave i orange, and wave v orange has no Fibonacci ratio to either of waves i or iii orange.

Price remains within the parallel channel drawn about wave v pink. The first trend line is drawn from the highs of waves (i) to (iii) green, then a parallel copy is placed upon the low of wave (ii) green. The first indication of a trend change (at least at pink / minute degree) would come with a clear breach of this channel by downwards movement.

Thereafter, movement below 13,860.58 would invalidate the alternate hourly wave count below and provide some confirmation of this main hourly wave count.

Within a new downwards trend any new high would invalidate the wave count. Movement above 14,019.79 would indicate the alternate below may be correct.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

DJIA hourly alternate 2013

Wave (v) green may be extending. If this is the case then within it wave ii orange may not move beyond the start of wave i orange. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 13,860.58.

If this wave count is confirmed then wave (v) green would reach 0.382 the length of wave (i) green at 14,076. We may expect wave (v) green to end about the upper edge of the parallel channel.