The S&P 500 has moved higher again as expected from yesterday’s analysis.
I have the same daily wave count and only one hourly wave count for you today. We need to use the channel on the daily chart to confirm a trend change. Until we have confirmation of a trend change we should assume that the trend remains the same.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
The structure for primary wave B is a triple zigzag, and price is now within the third zigzag in the triple labeled wave (Z) black. Because three is the maximum number of structures within a multiple when this third zigzag is finally complete then the entire correction for primary wave B must be complete. There is no other Elliott wave structure which could allow for upwards movement within this wave count at cycle degree.
Wave (Z) black may now be almost complete as an exaggerated zigzag.
Wave A blue must be truncated to subdivide into a five wave structure.
If primary wave B reaches twice the length of primary wave A at 1,644 although the wave count is not technically invalidated at that point the probability would be so low it should be discarded. At that stage I would switch the monthly wave count to the alternate expanding triangle wave count, which requires a new all time high.
Wave A blue lasted 87 days (2 short of a Fibonacci 89). Wave B blue lasted 28 days. So far wave C blue has lasted 46 days. It may continue for another 9 sessions to last a Fibonacci 55 days.
I have used Elliott’s channeling technique to draw a channel about wave (Z) black zigzag. When this channel is breached by downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation of a trend change.
Movement to a new high has invalidated yesterday’s alternate wave count and confirmed this main wave count. Primary wave B is not over, and the very last fifth wave within it may be completing. It may last another 9 sessions is it extends, although at this stage if this wave count is correct at the hourly chart level that looks like a bit too long.
Within wave (iii) green wave iii orange is 1.95 points short of 1.618 the length of wave i orange. At 1,509 wave v orange would reach equality in length with wave i orange.
At 1,530 wave v pink would reach equality in length with wave i pink. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between waves i and iii pink it is more likely that we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between wave v pink and either of iii or i.
When wave (iii) green is complete then wave (iv) green may not move into wave (i) green price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,473.31.