Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement towards a target at 13,024. Price moved higher to reach 38 points above the target.
Upwards movement was expected to end in either one or four trading days after last analysis. The high was reached after four trading days.
I have the same daily wave count for you this week with two hourly wave counts.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
At the monthly chart level this wave count sees a common structure of a double flat unfolding at super cycle degree, and within the second flat primary waves A and B are complete. Primary wave B is a 139% correction of primary wave A.
Downwards movement is moving towards the middle of a third wave for iii pink with so far a series of overlapping first and second waves.
This is a very common scenario, because it is most commonly the third wave which is extended and this is preceded by a series of first and second waves.
Wave 2 purple may not move beyond the start of wave 1 purple. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,290.75.
Targets for wave C at primary degree are long term; they are months away. At 9,860 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. At 7,511 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.
Within the new downwards movement wave ii orange may have ended after a Fibonacci 8 days (main hourly wave count) or it could continue further as a double zigzag structure (alternate hourly wave count). The differentiating price point is 12,765.32.
Main Hourly Wave Count.
If upwards movement to the high labeled wave A purple within wave ii orange is seen as a five wave structure then wave ii orange may be a complete zigzag.
This wave count has about an even probability with the alternate below. It may be slightly more likely simply because I often see triangle like structures end as doubles or combinations, and the alternate below looks at a possible triangle completing.
Within wave ii orange there is no Fibonacci ratio between waves A and C purple.
Ratios within wave A purple are: wave (3) aqua is 11.51 points short of 1.618 the length of wave (1) aqua, and wave (5) aqua is 17.37 points longer than 1.618 the length of wave (1) aqua.
Within wave B purple there is on Fibonacci ratio between waves (A) and (C) aqua.
At 11,737 wave iii orange would reach 1.618 the length of wave i orange. This target is probably about two weeks away.
Movement below 12,765.32 would invalidate the alternate below and confirm this main wave count.
Clear downwards movement below the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s technique about a correction would provide initial confirmation of a trend change back to the downside.
Within wave iii orange no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,062.40.
If this wave count is invalidated then we may use the alternate below.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
If the upwards wave labeled here wave W purple within wave ii orange is seen as a three wave structure then it is possible that wave ii orange is an incomplete double zigzag.
Within the second zigzag labeled wave Y purple wave (B) aqua may be completing as a contracting triangle.
For the triangle to remain valid wave E red may not move below the end of wave C red at 12,988.68.
At 13,183 wave (C) aqua would reach about 0.618 the length of wave (A) aqua.
If the triangle is invalidated with downwards movement then wave (B) aqua may be completing as a double combination (actually more common than triangles). If this happens then wave (B) aqua should not move much lower as the purpose of double combinations is to move price sideways, not to deepen a correction.
Movement below the parallel channel would put this alternate wave count in doubt, and would reduce its probability.
Wave (B) aqua may not move beyond the start of wave (A) aqua (if wave Y purple is a zigzag). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 12,765.32.
Wave ii orange may not move beyond the start of wave i orange. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 13,290.67.