Yesterday’s main hourly wave count for the S&P 500 expected price to move lower. The main hourly wave count had a higher probability than the alternate. Targets are not yet met.
Today’s analysis has only one daily and one hourly wave count. I have tried to look for an alternate which fits subdivisions and has the right look. So far I have not been able to see one. The implications of today’s analysis without an alternate are important.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
It looks highly likely that we have recently seen a very large trend change on the S&P 500 and a new downwards trend, to last months, has begun.
At primary degree wave A is an expanded flat correction. Wave (A) black within it subdivides into a three, and wave (B) black is over 105% of wave (A) black at 123%. The minimum requirements for an expanded flat are met. We should expect wave (C) black to subdivide into a five and move price substantially beyond the end of wave (A) black at 1,074.77.
At 967 wave (C) black would reach 1.618 the length of wave (A) black. If price continues through this first target, or it gets there and the structure is incomplete, then our second (less likely) target is at 685 where wave (C) black would reach 2.618 the length of wave (A) black.
Wave (A) black lasted 4 months. Wave (B) black lasted 6 months. We may expect wave (C) black to last at least 4 months, if not longer.
Within wave (iii) green no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,415.32.
When price falls below 1,292.66 then the upwards movement labeled (B) black cannot be a developing five up and it would be confirmed as a completed three. This would add further confidence to the trend change and expectation for wave (C) black to reach targets.
Within wave (iii) green waves i and ii orange are complete.
Within wave iii orange waves 1 and 2 purple are complete.
At 1,300 wave 3 purple would be 1.618 the length of wave 1 purple. If this wave count is correct then this target should be met tomorrow.
The mid term target is more likely to be at 1,245 where wave (iii) green would reach 2.618 the length of wave (i) green.
If this wave count is correct then we should expect extremely strong downwards movement during tomorrow’s session.
I have redrawn the parallel channel using a “best fit” to contain most of this downwards movement. When wave iii orange is complete we may use Elliott’s channeling technique to redraw the channel, but for now I would expect wave iii orange to end about the lower edge of this channel or below.
Within wave 3 purple no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,341.78.
I have looked for an alternate wave count which could see a correction beginning tomorrow, which could see wave i orange as only just complete or very close to completion. At this stage I cannot see an alternate which fits all the subdivisions and has the right look. This does not mean one does not exist, and I will continue to look for an alternate for you, but it does increase my confidence in this wave count today.