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The Dow has moved sideways since our last analysis. Both the hourly wave counts remain valid.
We will use invalidation / confirmation points to work with our two wave counts.
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the DJIA for 30th March, 2012. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
We should always assume the trend remains the same, until proved otherwise. At this stage we do not have confirmation of a trend change. Movement below 12,734.86 would confirm a trend change.
This daily wave count sees wave (B) black as a double zigzag correction.
Waves (i) through (iv) green are seen as complete. Wave (v) green may still be unfolding.
At 14,205.82 wave (B) black would reach 138% the length of wave (A) black which is the typical maximum for a B wave within a flat correction. We are likely to see a trend change occur before price reaches 14,205.82.
At 13,388 wave (v) green would reach 0.618 the length of wave (iii) green and at 13,395 wave c pink would reach 1.618 the length of wave a pink.
Movement below 12,734.86 would invalidate this wave count as no second wave correction within wave (v) green may move beyond the start of the first wave.
This main hourly sees wave (v) green possibly unfolding as an ending diagonal that would need to see all the sub waves subdivide into zigzags.
We have completed zigzags for waves i and ii orange, although wave ii orange may extend lower.
There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios within wave A purple of wave iii orange for wave (3) aqua with wave (1) aqua and wave (5) aqua with either of waves (1) or (3) aqua.
There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio within wave B purple of wave iii orange for wave (C) aqua with wave (A) aqua.
Further upwards movement is therefore expected to complete wave (v) green which should then see the correction for wave (B) black complete.
Movement above 13,288.33 would confirm this wave count as the alternate hourly would then be invalidated.
At 13,456.69 wave C purple within wave iii orange would reach 1.618 the length of wave A purple. This is a first possible target for wave iii orange.
At 13,556.10 wave iii orange would reach equality with wave i orange, this is a second possible target.
Movement below 12,735.16 would invalidate this wave count as wave ii orange may not move beyond the start of wave i orange. At that stage we would use the alternate wave count below and expect we have seen a trend change.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
This alternate hourly wave count expects that we have seen the end to wave (B) black and therefore a trend change has occurred.
We have seen the correction within wave ii orange move to the .786 retracement of wave i orange. According to the wave sub divisions we expect to see a little further upwards movement, staying below the invalidation point, to complete wave C purple.
Final confirmation of the trend change is with movement below 12,735.16 as the downwards movement then can not be a second wave correction within wave (v) green anymore. This would also see our main hourly wave count invalidated.
Upwards movement above 13,288.33 would invalidate this wave count as wave ii orange may not move beyond the start of wave i orange.
If this wave count is to be correct then we should be seeing an increase in downwards momentum within the next two days as the Dow would then be within wave iii orange to the downside.