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DOW daily 2012

This main daily wave count sees wave (B) black as a double zigzag correction.

Waves (i) through (iv) green within wave c pink of wave Y blue are seen as complete and we expect a little more upwards movement to complete the final impulse labeled (v) green which should then complete the whole correction for wave (B) black.

At 13,387.66 wave (v) green would reach .618 the length of wave (iii) green.

At 14,205.82 wave (B) black would reach 138% the length of wave (A) black which is the typical maximum for a B wave within a flat correction. We are therefore likely to see a trend change occur before price reaches 14,205.82.

DOW hourly 2012

The hourly wave counts look at the structure within wave (v) green of wave c pink.

This main hourly expects that waves i through iii orange are complete and that we need to see one more wave to the upside to complete wave (B) black and signal a trend change.

A ratio within wave (v) green of wave c pink is: wave iii orange is 3.92 points longer than 1.618 the the length of wave i orange. This ratio makes it less likely that we will see a ratio for wave v orange with either of waves i or iii orange.

Ratios within wave iii orange of wave c pink are: wave 3 purple is 24.72 points shorter than 4.236 the length of wave 1 purple and wave 5 purple is 10.16 points longer than 1.618 the length of wave 1 purple.

Movement above 13,288.33 would provide confirmation for the main hourly as the alternate hourly would then be invalidated.

The trend channel is constructed about wave (v) green by connecting the end of wave i orange to the end of wave iii orange and placing a parallel copy to contain price at the bottom.  We iv orange has clearly overshot the bottom trend line and it is typical for fourth waves to do this before reversing higher.

Movement below 12,968.72 would invalidate this wave count as wave iv orange may not move into the price territory of wave i orange.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

DOW hourly alternate 2012

This alternate hourly wave count expects that we have seen the end to wave (B) black and therefore a trend change has occurred.

Initial confirmation of this trend change is with movement below 13,968.72 as the main hourly wave count would then be invalidated.

Final confirmation of the trend change is with movement below 12,735.16 as the downwards movement then can not be a second wave correction within wave (v) green anymore.

Upwards movement above 13,288.33 would invalidate this wave count as no second wave correction within wave (C) black may move beyond the start of the first wave.