Elliott Wave chart analysis for the S&P 500 for 13th June, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Price has moved in a narrow range during Monday’s session and movement to a new low, below 1,268.28, invalidated the main hourly wave count, and confirmed the main hourly wave count which saw wave 4 pink as complete.
Wave 5 pink may also be over, ending on the lower trend line of the parallel channel containing wave 1 blue.
If this is correct then we may expect wave 2 blue to last about a week or two.
Ratios within wave 1 blue are: wave 3 pink has no fibonacci ratio to wave 1 pink and wave 5 pink is just 0.37 points short of 0.382 the length of wave 3 pink.
In the long term it is likely that cycle wave C will reach equality with cycle wave A at 450.14. Cycle wave C should take at least a year, if not longer, to complete.
Wave 2 blue may not move beyond the start of wave 1 blue. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,359.44
Main Hourly Wave Count.
Wave 2 blue may be unfolding as a flat correction or a double beginning with a flat. Wave A pink looks like a three wave structure with several overlapping zigzags so far.
At 1,279.52 wave C green will reach 1.618 the length of wave A green. At 1,288.10 wave C green will reach 2.618 the length of wave A green. I favour the higher second target as it looks like that would better provide enough room for wave C green to unfold.
Wave C green must subdivide into a five wave structure, either an ending diagonal or an impulse. On a 5 minute chart wave 1 orange within wave C green looks most like a five wave impulse and it is more likely that wave C green will unfold as an impulse.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
It is also possible that wave 5 pink is incomplete and we have only waves 1 and 2 within it almost complete.
At 1,246.90 wave 5 pink would reach equality with wave 1 pink.
Wave 2 green is here labeled as a double combination correction which is incomplete. Wave C purple should complete the second structure of the double with a little further upwards movement. At 1,282.09 wave C purple would reach equality with wave A purple.
Wave 2 green may not move beyond the start of wave 1 green. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,294.54.