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Elliott Wave chart analysis for the S&P 500 for 6th June, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

S&P 500 daily 2011

With further downwards movement expected from last analysis main wave count, we can again narrow down the number of alternate possibilities that we are working with. I have only the one main daily wave count for you today. The only bullish alternate that I can see as still possible is a very large expanded flat correction for wave 4 black within primary wave C, and as explained previously this looks highly unlikely.

In the long term it is likely that cycle wave C will reach equality with cycle wave A at 450.14. Cycle wave C should take at least a year, if not longer, to complete.

Further movement below 1,249.05 would increase the probability of this bear market. At that stage a very unlikely alternate which saw downwards movement as a second wave correction within wave 5 black would be invalidated.

Finally, movement below 1,129.24 would invalidate the one remaining alternate bullish wave count and so give us a lot of confidence that the S&P is in a bear market.

Any second wave correction may not move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,359.44.

S&P 500 hourly 2011

Monday’s downwards movement is a complete five wave impulse on a 5 minute chart. Wave 3 orange is 7.05 points shorter than wave 1 orange and so wave 5 orange to come may not be longer than 32.54 points.

Ratios within wave 3 orange are: wave 3 purple is 0.74 points short of equality with wave 1 purple and wave 5 purple is 0.98 points longer than 0.618 the length of wave 3 purple.

Wave 4 orange may begin tomorrow’s session and may not move into wave 1 orange price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,305.61.

At 1,268.12 wave 3 green will reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 green. If this wave count is correct this target may be reached tomorrow or the day after.

We may use Elliott’s technique to draw a channel around wave 3 green. Wave 4 orange within it may end about the upper end of the channel and the final fifth wave downwards may end either midway in the channel or about the lower edge.