Elliott Wave chart analysis for the S&P 500 for 24th May, 2011. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
I present today’s analysis in the same format as yesterday, beginning with the same chart to compare each wave count. The table is unchanged from yesterday because price movement has not altered this situation.
Wave counts 1, 2, 4, 5 and 7 all see the larger historical count as having the start of the correction at the all time high in October 2007 at 1,576.09. In the historic analysis, as it currently is, this wave count is listed as the “alternate”.
Wave counts 3 and 6 are listed at the end of the table and both see the larger historical count as having the start of the correction (and expanded flat) in March, 2000 at 1,552.87. These two counts do not allow for a new all time high and so do not fit with other indices (such as the Russell 2000) which have made new all time highs.
Table
Click here to download a .pdf of the table above.
Daily Chart #1
Importantly the trend channel still does not yet have a full breach, just an overshoot. Further notes are in the table. It is likely now that wave 2 pink is complete.
Wave 2 pink can now be seen as a complete zigzag.
Waves A and C green within the zigzag for wave 2 pink have no relationship of equality nor fibonacci ratio between them.
Ratios within wave C green are: wave 3 orange has no fibonacci ratio to wave 1 orange and wave 5 orange is just 0.74 longer than 0.236 the length of wave 3 orange.
Ratios within wave 3 orange of wave C green are: wave 3 purple has no fibonacci ratio to wave 1 purple and wave 5 purple is just 0.61 short of equality with wave 1 purple.
Ratios within wave 3 purple of wave 3 orange of wave C green are: wave 3 aqua has no fibonacci ratio to wave 1 aqua and wave 5 aqua is just 0.08 longer than 0.236 the length of wave 3 aqua.
At 1,434.57 wave 3 pink will reach 1.618 the length of wave 1 pink.
This hourly wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,311.8.
Daily Chart #2
This is the only chart which is following the alternate historic wave count but requires cycle wave A downwards, from 1,576.06 to 666.79, to be viewed as a five wave structure. All other wave counts which follow the alternate historic count see this wave as a three, which it is most easily seen as. This is because cycle B has not reached 90% the length of wave A, which is a requirement for a flat correction where A subdivides into a three.
I have labeled wave 3 purple here as ending in a slight truncation.
Wave 3 orange has no fibonacci ratio to wave 1 orange.
Within wave 3 orange there are no adequate fibonacci ratios between purple waves 1, 3 and 5
Within wave 3 purple within wave 3 orange there are no adequate fibonacci ratios between aqua waves 1, 3 and 5.
Wave 4 orange is now a complete zigzag. There is no ratio between waves A and C purple.
Because the three wave zigzag upwards for wave 4 orange may also be wave A purple within wave 4 orange, the invalidation point must remain at 1,332.03. Any further extension upwards of wave 4 orange may not move into wave 1 orange price territory.
Daily Chart #4
Daily Chart #5
Daily Chart #7
Daily Chart #3
Daily Chart #6
