Elliott Wave chart analysis for the SPX500 for 17th November, 2010. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
The S&P has moved mostly sideways for Wednesday’s trading session. The situation has relatively unchanged since last analysis.
We are expecting a continuation of the downwards trend to complete wave A pink of wave 4 blue. It is most likely that wave 4 blue will unfold as either a flat or a triangle. Therefore, it is most likely that wave A pink within wave 4 blue will unfold as a three wave A-B-C structure.
At this stage we shall expect wave 4 blue to be a shallow 0.382 correction.
Wave 4 blue may not move into wave 1 blue price territory. Therefore, this wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,129.9. If this wave count is invalidated then we shall use the alternate daily wave count.
Price has moved mostly sideways in a small fourth wave correction within wave A pink to the downside.
Within wave 4 purple wave C aqua will reach 1.618 the length of wave A aqua at 1,189.3.
Wave 4 purple may not move into wave 1 purple price territory. Therefore, upwards movement above 1,190.4 would invalidate this wave count at the hourly chart level.
If this wave count is invalidated then wave 3 orange has likely ended with a truncated fifth wave and upwards movement is likely wave 4 orange. At that stage the invalidation point would move to 1,193.4.
When this correction is over we should see the resumption of downwards movement to end wave C green and, therefore, wave A pink.
Alternate Daily Wave Count.
This alternate wave count expects the S&P is still in wave B black (intermediate) within primary wave 2.
Wave B blue was a 103% correction of wave A blue. Therefore, this B wave at intermediate degree is most likely a regular flat correction. Therefore, wave C blue is most likely to end just beyond the low of wave A blue, below 1,008.
If price moves below 1,129.9 the main wave count at the daily chart level will be invalidated. At that stage there will be a very high probability that price would continue downwards to end just below 1,008.