For the very short term, the hourly Elliott wave analysis expected a pullback for a small fourth wave. With price remaining above first wave price territory, all Elliott wave rules are met and the wave count has the right look. The pullback for Friday was almost exactly what the last analysis expected to see.
A new low below 2,462.17 in the first hour of the session added confidence to the Elliott wave count which expected a deeper pullback was in the early stages. The target for it to end and the expectation for how long it may last will remain the same for now.
Upwards movement was expected. Price did move higher to begin the session, but fell strongly in the final hours to close red. An outside day was completed.
Another downwards day has unfolded as expected to start the new trading week. The Elliott wave count remains the same and has support from volume and ADX.
A downwards day was expected for Tuesday’s session.
There are only now two hourly Elliott wave counts.
Again, the two daily Elliott wave counts today are judged to have about an even probability.
Assume the trend is the same, until proven otherwise.
A small inside day remains below the invalidation point on both Elliott Wave hourly charts.
Upwards movement invalidated the main hourly Elliott wave count and confirmed the alternate, which was judged to have a very low (5%) probability.
A very small range day to produce a small green doji sees both hourly Elliott wave counts remain valid.
Price is squeezed between two trend lines.
End of week analysis expected Monday to see strong downwards movement.
This is exactly what happened.