Tag Archives: technical analysis

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th November, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected more upwards movement to increase in momentum after a second wave correction which is what has happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count has a higher probability than the alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.

Downwards corrections may now find support along the upper edge of the big maroon channel from the monthly chart, if the upper trend line is pushed out to encompass all of primary wave A.

At 1,858.03 cycle wave b would reach 138% the length of cycle wave a. This wave count sees a super cycle expanded flat unfolding, and the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat is 138% the length of the A wave. Above this point this wave count would reduce in probability and it would be more likely that a longer term bull market is underway.

Intermediate wave (5) may be incomplete with just minor waves 1 and now probably 2 within it completed.

At 1,826 minor wave 3 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 is extended, so minor waves 3 and 5 may not be.

At 1,864 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This is the most common ratio between first and fifth waves so this target has a good probability.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,746.20.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

The second wave correction I was looking for probably happened early in Thursday’s session. Minuette wave (ii) may have completed as a shallow zigzag correction after the fifth wave within minuette wave (i) moved a little higher.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.22 points short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and now subminuette wave v is just 0.06 points longer than equality with subminuette wave iii.

Within minuette wave (iii) we may now have seen subminuette wave i completed; on the five minute chart it subdivides perfectly as a small five wave impulse.

The short / mid term target for minute wave iii at this stage will remain the same. Minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i at 1,807. Minute wave iii should breach the acceleration channel to the upside.

On the five minute chart the structure within the start of subminuette wave iii within minuette wave (iii) has many overlaps. This may be a series of first and second waves which would indicate a further increase in upwards momentum tomorrow, and maybe also Monday.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,780.22.

Alternate Bullish Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate 2013

It is possible that we are and have been in a new bull market for a cycle degree fifth wave for the last four and a half years. Cycle waves should last from one to several years (as a rough guideline).

At this stage this bullish alternate does not diverge from the main wave count. The end of intermediate wave (1) is calculated using the same wave lengths and ratios.

When intermediate wave (1) could again be considered complete then this alternate would also expect downwards movement. At that stage the direction expected would be the same as the main wave count, but this alternate would expect a corrective structure downwards where the main wave count would expect an impulse downwards.

This bullish alternate expects that only a first wave within a primary degree third wave is coming closer to an end. When the second wave at intermediate wave degree is completed this alternate would expect a very strong and sustained rise with a good increase in upwards momentum. That strong rise is still probably months away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th November, 2013

Last analysis expected some more downwards movement towards a short term target calculated at 515 to 513.61. Downwards movement ended at 512.38, $1.23 below the lower end of the target zone.

Thereafter, price has turned higher and breached the parallel channel on the hourly chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C upwards within a larger upwards correction for a cycle wave b zigzag.

Within primary wave C so far intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is an incomplete impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

I have redrawn the channel about intermediate wave (3) this week using Elliott’s second channeling technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. I will expect minor wave 5 to most likely end midway within this channel, and if it gets higher to find resistance at the upper edge.

At this stage it is most likely that minor wave 4 is complete. In the unlikely situation that it continued further as a double combination, flat or double zigzag, then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). At 560 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1. I am aware that this target zone is rather large, and so as we get closer to the end I will try to narrow it down when I can add to it at a third wave degree.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minor wave 4 is most likely complete now as a zigzag. Within it minute wave c is 1.24 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

The parallel channel about minor wave 4 zigzag is now clearly breached by upwards movement. This provides confidence that minor wave 4 should be over and minor wave 5 should be underway.

Minor wave 2 was a relatively shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. If minor wave 4 is over now then it too was a relatively shallow 41% zigzag correction of minor wave 3. Within minor wave 2 minute waves a and c are very close to equality; within minor wave 4 minute waves a and c have a 0.618 Fibonacci relationship. There is no alternation in depth of correction or structure, but there is alternation within the structures.

If this wave count is correct this week at the hourly chart level then I would expect to see an increase in upwards momentum from AAPL over the next few days.

Within minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 512.38.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

Last analysis on 23rd October, 2013 expected more upwards movement to a target at 552. Price moved higher to reach 539.25, $12.75 short of the target.

Minor wave 3 is now over and minor wave 4 is underway.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2013

A large zigzag structure for a fourth wave correction at supercycle degree may be unfolding.

Within the zigzag cycle wave a is a complete impulse. Within cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within the larger zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of cycle wave b.

Within primary wave B there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Within intermediate wave (2) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

The target for minor wave 3 to end was 552. It ended at 539.25 with no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (3) is completed I will add to this target calculation at minor wave degree, so it may change or widen to a small zone.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minor wave 3 has completed a typical looking impulse.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave v is 1.35 short of equality with minute wave i, and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute wave iii and either of i or v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.55 short of 0.618 the length of minuett e wave (iii).

Minor wave 2 was a shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect minor wave 4 to be more likely to be deep, and it may unfold as a flat, double, combination or triangle.

Minor wave 4 may also find support at the lower edge of the channel drawn here. This channel is drawn from the highs of minor waves 1 to 3, with a parallel copy placed upon the low of minor wave 2.

If price breaks through support at the lower trend line then I would expect downwards movement to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3, at about 500.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th October, 2013

Last analysis of FTSE expected a little upwards movement to a very short term target at 6,515, before downwards movement towards about 6,280.60.

We did not see the small upwards movement I had expected, but overall price did move lower to reach 6,316.91, 36.31 points short of the target for the week.

A very clear channel breach indicates that the correction is now over.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) it is possible to see this structure as a completed zigzag.

The following upwards movement for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) is ambiguous. It can be seen as either a three or a five. This wave count sees it as a five.

Downwards movement for minor wave 2 is now a complete double zigzag. The second zigzag in the double made only a slight new low below the first, but did move price lower.

At 7,406 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is about 30 trading days or sessions away.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 6,316.91.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

A channel drawn about the second zigzag in the double labeled minute wave y is now very clearly breached up upwards movement. The downwards correction is likely to be over and the next wave up should be underway.

Within minor wave 3 I would expect at some stage over the next week to two a second wave correction for minute wave ii. Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 6,316.91.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th October, 2013

Movement below 6,386.72 invalidated last week’s FTSE analysis. This can only be a continuation of a second wave, which is likely to reach down to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of the first wave.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) it is possible to see this structure as a completed zigzag.

The following upwards movement for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) is ambiguous. It can be seen as either a three or a five. This wave count sees it as a five.

Downwards movement for minor wave 2 is an incomplete double zigzag. It cannot be a flat because what would be wave B (here labeled minute wave x) is less than 90% of what would be the A wave (here labeled minute wave w).

The purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag did not move price deep enough. Minor wave 2 would be likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 6,280.60.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 6,023.44.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within the second zigzag of this double minuette wave (a) is complete, and a channel drawn about it is clearly breached by upwards movement.

Minuette wave (b) may be an incomplete zigzag. At 6,515 subminuette wave c would reach equality with subminuette wave a.

I would expect subminuette wave c to find resistance at the upper edge of the small channel drawn about minuette wave (b). When this channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement then I would expect that minuette wave (c) may have begun.

When minuette wave (b) is complete I would expect downwards movement to new lows for minuette wave (c).

Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement above 6,559.12.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement for AAPL which is what has happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Primary wave X within the double zigzag of cycle wave IV is now complete.

At the low labeled primary wave W this downwards wave subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag. Because a new low was made after this zigzag was completed cycle wave IV cannot be over there, it must be continuing.

At cycle degree the structure unfolding is most likely a double zigzag. It may also be a double combination, but that would normally have a deeper retracement for the X wave; this upwards correction for primary wave X is relatively shallow and fits better the normal form for an X wave within double zigzag.

At this stage primary wave X is a complete flat correction because intermediate wave (A) within it subdivides as a three wave zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is a corrective structure that is just over 100% the length of intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (C) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse and has no Fibonacci ratio with intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave Y has begun and is most likely to be a large zigzag trending downwards. It should last months and take price to new lows. When the intermediate degree waves (A) and (B) within it are completed I can calculate a target for it to end. I cannot do that yet for you.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 496.41.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The channel about minor wave 2 is very clearly breached by downwards movement. This provides trend channel confirmation that minor wave 2 should be over and minor wave 3 downwards has recently begun.

At 389.28 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 lasted 19 days, minor wave 2 lasted 5 days. I would expect minor wave 3 to last about two to three weeks.

Within the current wave down if micro wave 2 continues higher it may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 488.56.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2013

Last analysis expected some more upwards movement towards a short term target at 488.33. Price did move higher, 8.58 above the target, to reach 496.91, before turning down again

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL daily 2012

Primary wave X within the double zigzag of cycle wave IV is now complete.

At the low labeled primary wave W this downwards wave subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag. Because a new low was made after this zigzag was completed cycle wave IV cannot be over there, it must be continuing.

At cycle degree the structure unfolding is most likely a double zigzag. It may also be a double combination, but that would normally have a deeper retracement for the X wave; this upwards correction for primary wave X is relatively shallow and fits better the normal form for an X wave within double zigzag.

At this stage primary wave X is a complete flat correction because intermediate wave (A) within it subdivides as a three wave zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is a corrective structure that is just over 100% the length of intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (C) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse and has no Fibonacci ratio with intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave Y has begun and is most likely to be a large zigzag trending downwards. It should last months and take price to new lows. When the intermediate degree waves (A) and (B) within it are completed I can calculate a target for it to end. I cannot do that yet for you.

Within the zigzag of primary wave Y no second wave correction (or B wave) may move beyond the start of the first wave (or A wave). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 513.74.

AAPL hourly 2012

Minor wave 2 is most likely to be over as a very deep zigzag correction. However, I want to see a trend channel breach before I would have confidence in the target.

At 389.28 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave c is 0.42 short of equality with minute wave a.

Ratios within minute wave a are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.08 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no adequate Fiboancci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

I would have some confidence in this wave count with price movement below 478.55. At that stage downwards movement could not be a fourth wave correction within a new upwards impulse, and the movement labeled minor wave 2 would be confirmed as a completed three wave structure.

A clear breach of the parallel channel would provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave 2 is over and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 496.91.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement then I would expect minor wave 2 could be continuing further as a double zigzag or double combination. The invalidation point for that alternate idea is at 513.74.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th September, 2013

The invalidation point on the hourly chart was breached. This has necessitated a thorough reanalysis of the wave count, including the monthly chart. This changes the situation significantly.

I expect now that the FTSE is in a final fifth wave upwards towards an all time high.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

This structure unfolding is a large supercycle flat correction. The most common type of flat is an expanded flat which requires cycle wave b to reach a minimum of 90% the length of cycle wave a. This would be achieved at 7,103.67. It is very likely price will get at least to this point, or above.

Within cycle wave b primary wave C is now in the final fifth wave.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) it is possible to see this structure as a completed zigzag.

The following upwards movement for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) is ambiguous. It can be seen as either a three or a five. This wave count sees it as a five.

Downwards movement for minor wave 2 subdivides as a zigzag. The subdivisons of that are shown in the next chart below.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 6,386.72.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart Hourly - 2nd Wave 2013

This chart shows the subdivisions of the second wave zigzag.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Minute wave b is an expanded flat correction. Within it subminuette wave c is 3.32 points short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Ratios within minute wave a are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 2.14 points short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minute wave c are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii), and minuette wave (v) is just 2.69 short of equality with minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is 9.57 points longer than 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.1 points longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave i.

The previous problem I had with this movement was trying to see the first downwards wave as ending at the low labeled minuette wave (b) within minute wave b. It is much clearer to see a big zigzag trending downwards when this is seen as part of the following movement.

FTSE Elliott Wave Chart 2013

So far upwards movement is very choppy and overlapping. There is some increase in momentum, and a third wave may be starting to show itself.

This wave count sees a series of five overlapping first and second waves so far.

At 6,726 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

If labeling of micro waves 1 and 3 are correct then we should see a strong increase in upwards momentum over the next day or so. However, there is more than one way to label these waves, particularly in the last 24 hours movement.

Either way, this third wave is incomplete.

When subminuette wave iii is complete subminuette wave iv should move price lower. Subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 6,568.18.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th September, 2013

Last published AAPL charts expected more downwards movement to a short term target at 463.93. Price reached down to just 0.88 short of the target at 464.81 before turning up for a short term correction.

At this stage there is a gap to be filled, and a second wave to do it.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Primary wave X within the double zigzag of cycle wave IV is now complete.

At the low labeled primary wave W this downwards wave subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag. Because a new low was made after this zigzag was completed cycle wave IV cannot be over there, it must be continuing.

At cycle degree the structure unfolding is most likely a double zigzag. It may also be a double combination, but that would normally have a deeper retracement for the X wave; this double zigzag is relatively shallow and fits better the normal form for a double zigzag.

At this stage primary wave X is a complete flat correction because intermediate wave (A) within it subdivides as a three wave zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is a corrective structure that is just over 100% the length of intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (C) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse and has no Fibonacci ratio with intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave Y has begun and is most likely to be a large zigzag trending downwards. It should last months and take price to new lows. When the intermediate degree waves (A) and (B) within it are completed I can calculate a target for it to end. I cannot do that yet for you.

Within the zigzag of primary wave Y no second wave correction (or B wave) may move beyond the start of the first wave (or A wave). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 513.74.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

There is now a completed five wave structure downwards. This should be followed by a corrective structure, subdividing into three waves, upwards.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.88 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.99 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).

A channel drawn about minute wave i should be breached by upwards movement for minute wave ii.

Minute wave ii is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 488.33. It should be choppy and overlapping. It should last about two to three weeks. Unfortunately there can be no downwards invalidation point for this correction. If minute wave ii is an expanded flat it may include a B wave which makes a new low below 447.22.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 513.74.