Tag Archives: stock market

Christmas and New Year Holiday Dates 2015 – 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market will be closed for two weeks during the Christmas and New Year holiday.

Holiday dates are from Monday 21st December to Friday 1st January.

Last analysis of the year will be after market close of Friday 18th December.

First analysis of the new year will be done after market close for Monday, 4th January, 2016, and will include a video update.

During the two week holiday, markets will be closed for two and a half days and there will be seven and a half days when markets will be open but which will not be analysed.

May all members have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

May we all look forward to great profits next year!

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th September, 2013

Last week I expected downwards movement from the FTSE. This is not what happened. Price moved higher and sideways, but remained comfortably below the invalidation points on the hourly and daily charts.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

FTSE Daily Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

At super cycle degree this structure may be an expanded flat: cycle wave a subdivides into a three wave zigzag (with a slightly truncated C wave), and cycle wave b subdivides into a corrective structure and has passed the minimum of 90% the length of wave a.

The most common type of flat is an expanded flat. This requires cycle wave b to reach up to 105% the length of cycle wave a at 7,103.67 or above. The last upwards wave is likely to reach this point.

When primary wave C is a completed five wave structure we may expect a trend change at cycle wave degree.

If cycle wave b reaches 105% the length of cycle wave a at 7,103.67 or above then we may expect cycle wave c to move substantially below cycle wave a at 3,460.71.

If cycle wave b ends before 7,103.67 then we may expect cycle wave c to end just slightly below 3,460.71 as the structure at super cycle wave degree would then be a regular flat correction.

FTSE Daily Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focusses on intermediate wave (4) within primary wave C upwards.

Downwards movement labeled minor wave A is a completed five wave structure. It is very difficult to see this as a zigzag, so it is extremely unlikely that intermediate wave (4) is over here.

Upwards movement labeled minor wave B is a clear three wave structure. Minor wave B is now most likely over. Minor wave C downwards must unfold either as an impulse or an ending diagonal. Because the first wave downwards of minor wave C unfolds only as a zigzag on the hourly chart, it is most likely that minor wave C is unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal.

Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags, including the third wave. The fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory but may not move beyond the end of the second wave.

Within the diagonal minute waves i and ii are most likely complete. Minute wave iii is unfolding as a larger more exaggerated zigzag.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated in the mid term with movement above 6,627.96.

We may expect minor wave C to most likely make a new low below the end of minor wave A at 6,023 to avoid a truncation. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 5,989.07.

FTSE Daily Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more downwards movement, which is not what happened. Upwards and sideways movement was a continuation of minuette wave (b) within the zigzag of minute wave iii. Price remained below the invalidation point.

Minuette wave (b) is now a 65% correction of minuette wave (a), just above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio.

Minuette wave (c) must unfold as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. At this stage it is too early to know which of these two structural possibilities it will be.

Minuette wave (c) would reach equality with minuette wave (a) at 6,302. This target may be met in about a week.

Draw a parallel channel about this zigzag from the start of minuette wave (a), to the end of minuette wave (b) with a parallel copy upon the end of minuette wave (a). Expect minuette wave (c) to end about the lower edge of the channel.

Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 6,627.96.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th April, 2013

Last analysis expected Friday’s session to at least begin with some upwards movement, with the main wave count expecting only upwards movement. This is not what happened.

The wave counts remain the same on the daily charts. It may be significant that price remained just above the invalidation point on the main daily chart.

We need to see price break out of this range to invalidate one wave count and confirm the other before we shall have clarity.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th April, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st February, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement from the S&P 500 towards a target at 1,518 to 1,519. Price has risen during Friday’s session as expected, and the target is not yet met.

The structure on the hourly chart looks very typical and price remains well within the parallel channel.

The wave count is the same with just the one daily and one hourly chart for you to end the week.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st February, 2013

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2013

The main wave count from last analysis expected more upwards movement for the session (after a small dip down) while the alternate expected downwards movement. At this stage it is too early to decide which wave count is correct and so we should assume the trend remains the same, until proven otherwise. “The trend is your friend.”

I have the same wave counts as yesterday with a slight adjustment to the main hourly wave count.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st January, 2013

DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th October, 2012

The main hourly wave count for last analysis expected price to move higher during last week, which is what happened.

Both the first and second daily wave counts remain the same and have the same mid term target.

I have just one hourly wave count for you this week.

The first and second daily wave counts differ at the monthly chart level. Monthly charts can be reviewed in the historic analysis category here.

Continue reading DJIA Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th October, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th September, 2012

Yesterday’s main hourly wave count expected upwards movement for Thursday’s session which is what happened.

I have still the same charts as yesterday for you. The targets are the same. The main hourly wave count is not confirmed but it has a much better look and a higher probability today.

The first and second daily wave counts still have about an even probability. They differ at monthly chart level, and at cycle degree. Monthly charts may be viewed here.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th September, 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2012

Yesterday’s analysis had three hourly wave counts. Movement below 1,452.06 invalidated two of the wave counts.

The wave count which is correct expected downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel which is where downwards movement ended for the session.

At this stage I have two hourly wave counts. The point of differentiation, the confirmation / invalidation point, is close by. The main hourly wave count has a higher probability than the alternate.

Monthly charts can be seen here.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th September, 2012