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AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2014

Within the bigger picture this wave count sees AAPL in a super cycle zigzag correction which is just over two thirds completed.

Click on charts to enlarge.

AAPL daily 2014

Within the zigzag cycle wave b ended at 571.88 with a small truncation in the final fifth wave up.

At this stage I expect a big leading expanding diagonal is unfolding for a first wave at primary degree.

Within the leading diagonal intermediate wave (2) is a 72% correction of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (4) is a 86% correction of intermediate wave (3).

I would expect intermediate wave (5) to be longer than intermediate wave (3) and to reach down to 484.54 or below. At 456 minor wave C within intermediate wave (5) would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

Downwards movement is very slow and so the target may be yet another few weeks away.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 551.19.

At 252 cycle wave c would reach equality in length with cycle wave a. This target is about one year away.

AAPL hourly 2014

Within intermediate wave (5) so far minor waves A and B are most likely complete.

Within minor wave C minute wave i and now ii also are most likely complete.

At 480 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

The pink channel drawn about minute waves i and ii is a base channel. I would expect corrections along the way down to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel. Minute wave iii should breach the lower edge of the channel and should show an increase in downwards momentum.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 532.14.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th November, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected more upwards movement to increase in momentum after a second wave correction which is what has happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2013

This wave count has a higher probability than the alternate. Upwards movement over the last 4 1/2 years subdivides best as a zigzag. If something is “off” about the supposed recovery then it must be a B wave because there is plenty that is off in this scenario in terms of social mood.

Downwards corrections may now find support along the upper edge of the big maroon channel from the monthly chart, if the upper trend line is pushed out to encompass all of primary wave A.

At 1,858.03 cycle wave b would reach 138% the length of cycle wave a. This wave count sees a super cycle expanded flat unfolding, and the maximum common length for a B wave within a flat is 138% the length of the A wave. Above this point this wave count would reduce in probability and it would be more likely that a longer term bull market is underway.

Intermediate wave (5) may be incomplete with just minor waves 1 and now probably 2 within it completed.

At 1,826 minor wave 3 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 1. Minor wave 1 is extended, so minor waves 3 and 5 may not be.

At 1,864 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). This is the most common ratio between first and fifth waves so this target has a good probability.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,746.20.

S&P 500 hourly 2013

The second wave correction I was looking for probably happened early in Thursday’s session. Minuette wave (ii) may have completed as a shallow zigzag correction after the fifth wave within minuette wave (i) moved a little higher.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.22 points short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and now subminuette wave v is just 0.06 points longer than equality with subminuette wave iii.

Within minuette wave (iii) we may now have seen subminuette wave i completed; on the five minute chart it subdivides perfectly as a small five wave impulse.

The short / mid term target for minute wave iii at this stage will remain the same. Minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i at 1,807. Minute wave iii should breach the acceleration channel to the upside.

On the five minute chart the structure within the start of subminuette wave iii within minuette wave (iii) has many overlaps. This may be a series of first and second waves which would indicate a further increase in upwards momentum tomorrow, and maybe also Monday.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,780.22.

Alternate Bullish Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily alternate 2013

It is possible that we are and have been in a new bull market for a cycle degree fifth wave for the last four and a half years. Cycle waves should last from one to several years (as a rough guideline).

At this stage this bullish alternate does not diverge from the main wave count. The end of intermediate wave (1) is calculated using the same wave lengths and ratios.

When intermediate wave (1) could again be considered complete then this alternate would also expect downwards movement. At that stage the direction expected would be the same as the main wave count, but this alternate would expect a corrective structure downwards where the main wave count would expect an impulse downwards.

This bullish alternate expects that only a first wave within a primary degree third wave is coming closer to an end. When the second wave at intermediate wave degree is completed this alternate would expect a very strong and sustained rise with a good increase in upwards momentum. That strong rise is still probably months away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th November, 2013

Last analysis expected some more downwards movement towards a short term target calculated at 515 to 513.61. Downwards movement ended at 512.38, $1.23 below the lower end of the target zone.

Thereafter, price has turned higher and breached the parallel channel on the hourly chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C upwards within a larger upwards correction for a cycle wave b zigzag.

Within primary wave C so far intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is an incomplete impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

I have redrawn the channel about intermediate wave (3) this week using Elliott’s second channeling technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. I will expect minor wave 5 to most likely end midway within this channel, and if it gets higher to find resistance at the upper edge.

At this stage it is most likely that minor wave 4 is complete. In the unlikely situation that it continued further as a double combination, flat or double zigzag, then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). At 560 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1. I am aware that this target zone is rather large, and so as we get closer to the end I will try to narrow it down when I can add to it at a third wave degree.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minor wave 4 is most likely complete now as a zigzag. Within it minute wave c is 1.24 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

The parallel channel about minor wave 4 zigzag is now clearly breached by upwards movement. This provides confidence that minor wave 4 should be over and minor wave 5 should be underway.

Minor wave 2 was a relatively shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. If minor wave 4 is over now then it too was a relatively shallow 41% zigzag correction of minor wave 3. Within minor wave 2 minute waves a and c are very close to equality; within minor wave 4 minute waves a and c have a 0.618 Fibonacci relationship. There is no alternation in depth of correction or structure, but there is alternation within the structures.

If this wave count is correct this week at the hourly chart level then I would expect to see an increase in upwards momentum from AAPL over the next few days.

Within minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 512.38.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

Last analysis on 23rd October, 2013 expected more upwards movement to a target at 552. Price moved higher to reach 539.25, $12.75 short of the target.

Minor wave 3 is now over and minor wave 4 is underway.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2013

A large zigzag structure for a fourth wave correction at supercycle degree may be unfolding.

Within the zigzag cycle wave a is a complete impulse. Within cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within the larger zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of cycle wave b.

Within primary wave B there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Within intermediate wave (2) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

The target for minor wave 3 to end was 552. It ended at 539.25 with no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (3) is completed I will add to this target calculation at minor wave degree, so it may change or widen to a small zone.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minor wave 3 has completed a typical looking impulse.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave v is 1.35 short of equality with minute wave i, and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute wave iii and either of i or v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.55 short of 0.618 the length of minuett e wave (iii).

Minor wave 2 was a shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect minor wave 4 to be more likely to be deep, and it may unfold as a flat, double, combination or triangle.

Minor wave 4 may also find support at the lower edge of the channel drawn here. This channel is drawn from the highs of minor waves 1 to 3, with a parallel copy placed upon the low of minor wave 2.

If price breaks through support at the lower trend line then I would expect downwards movement to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3, at about 500.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement for AAPL which is what has happened.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Primary wave X within the double zigzag of cycle wave IV is now complete.

At the low labeled primary wave W this downwards wave subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag. Because a new low was made after this zigzag was completed cycle wave IV cannot be over there, it must be continuing.

At cycle degree the structure unfolding is most likely a double zigzag. It may also be a double combination, but that would normally have a deeper retracement for the X wave; this upwards correction for primary wave X is relatively shallow and fits better the normal form for an X wave within double zigzag.

At this stage primary wave X is a complete flat correction because intermediate wave (A) within it subdivides as a three wave zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is a corrective structure that is just over 100% the length of intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (C) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse and has no Fibonacci ratio with intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave Y has begun and is most likely to be a large zigzag trending downwards. It should last months and take price to new lows. When the intermediate degree waves (A) and (B) within it are completed I can calculate a target for it to end. I cannot do that yet for you.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 496.41.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The channel about minor wave 2 is very clearly breached by downwards movement. This provides trend channel confirmation that minor wave 2 should be over and minor wave 3 downwards has recently begun.

At 389.28 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 lasted 19 days, minor wave 2 lasted 5 days. I would expect minor wave 3 to last about two to three weeks.

Within the current wave down if micro wave 2 continues higher it may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 488.56.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th September, 2013

I have run out of time today to do a full explanation of my AAPL analysis. I will publish charts only.

I am expecting downwards movement next week from AAPL. To have confidence that it is on its wave down, I first would want to see price breach the channel on the hourly chart, and then for price to move below 471.89.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis of US Oil expected some more upwards movement to end just above 108.76 but not above 108.92. Price moved higher and turned at 108.17, just 0.59 short of the target.

This week I expect an increase in downwards momentum for Oil.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (ii) completed as a rare running flat; subminuette wave c is slightly (0.59 cents) truncated. The subdivisions all fit perfectly, particularly the most important check, that of subminuette wave b as a three wave structure. It is very difficult to see this movement as a five.

Subminuette wave c ended almost right on the upper edge of the parallel channel containing this running flat of minuette wave (ii).

Within the running flat of minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 0.15 short of equality with subminuette wave a.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.28 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

Micro wave 5 subdivides into an imperfect ending contracting diagonal, imperfect because the third wave within it is the longest. All the subwaves correctly subdivide into single zigzags.

If this wave count is correct we should see some increase in downwards momentum over the next week.

At 98.07 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If price keeps falling through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure is incomplete, then the next target is at 91.83 where minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.17.