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AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd September, 2013

Last analysis expected some more upwards movement towards a short term target at 488.33. Price did move higher, 8.58 above the target, to reach 496.91, before turning down again

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL daily 2012

Primary wave X within the double zigzag of cycle wave IV is now complete.

At the low labeled primary wave W this downwards wave subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag. Because a new low was made after this zigzag was completed cycle wave IV cannot be over there, it must be continuing.

At cycle degree the structure unfolding is most likely a double zigzag. It may also be a double combination, but that would normally have a deeper retracement for the X wave; this upwards correction for primary wave X is relatively shallow and fits better the normal form for an X wave within double zigzag.

At this stage primary wave X is a complete flat correction because intermediate wave (A) within it subdivides as a three wave zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is a corrective structure that is just over 100% the length of intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (C) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse and has no Fibonacci ratio with intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave Y has begun and is most likely to be a large zigzag trending downwards. It should last months and take price to new lows. When the intermediate degree waves (A) and (B) within it are completed I can calculate a target for it to end. I cannot do that yet for you.

Within the zigzag of primary wave Y no second wave correction (or B wave) may move beyond the start of the first wave (or A wave). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 513.74.

AAPL hourly 2012

Minor wave 2 is most likely to be over as a very deep zigzag correction. However, I want to see a trend channel breach before I would have confidence in the target.

At 389.28 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave c is 0.42 short of equality with minute wave a.

Ratios within minute wave a are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.08 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no adequate Fiboancci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

I would have some confidence in this wave count with price movement below 478.55. At that stage downwards movement could not be a fourth wave correction within a new upwards impulse, and the movement labeled minor wave 2 would be confirmed as a completed three wave structure.

A clear breach of the parallel channel would provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave 2 is over and minor wave 3 is underway.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 496.91.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement then I would expect minor wave 2 could be continuing further as a double zigzag or double combination. The invalidation point for that alternate idea is at 513.74.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th September, 2013

Last published AAPL charts expected more downwards movement to a short term target at 463.93. Price reached down to just 0.88 short of the target at 464.81 before turning up for a short term correction.

At this stage there is a gap to be filled, and a second wave to do it.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Primary wave X within the double zigzag of cycle wave IV is now complete.

At the low labeled primary wave W this downwards wave subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag. Because a new low was made after this zigzag was completed cycle wave IV cannot be over there, it must be continuing.

At cycle degree the structure unfolding is most likely a double zigzag. It may also be a double combination, but that would normally have a deeper retracement for the X wave; this double zigzag is relatively shallow and fits better the normal form for a double zigzag.

At this stage primary wave X is a complete flat correction because intermediate wave (A) within it subdivides as a three wave zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is a corrective structure that is just over 100% the length of intermediate wave (A). Intermediate wave (C) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse and has no Fibonacci ratio with intermediate wave (A).

Primary wave Y has begun and is most likely to be a large zigzag trending downwards. It should last months and take price to new lows. When the intermediate degree waves (A) and (B) within it are completed I can calculate a target for it to end. I cannot do that yet for you.

Within the zigzag of primary wave Y no second wave correction (or B wave) may move beyond the start of the first wave (or A wave). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 513.74.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

There is now a completed five wave structure downwards. This should be followed by a corrective structure, subdividing into three waves, upwards.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.88 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.99 longer than equality with minuette wave (i).

A channel drawn about minute wave i should be breached by upwards movement for minute wave ii.

Minute wave ii is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 488.33. It should be choppy and overlapping. It should last about two to three weeks. Unfortunately there can be no downwards invalidation point for this correction. If minute wave ii is an expanded flat it may include a B wave which makes a new low below 447.22.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 513.74.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th September, 2013

Last AAPL analysis expected downwards movement which is what we have seen.

I have two wave counts for you this week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Primary wave X within the double zigzag of cycle wave IV may have completed.

At the low labeled primary wave W this downwards wave subdivides perfectly as a three wave zigzag. Because a new low was made after this zigzag was completed cycle wave IV cannot be over there, it must be continuing.

At cycle degree the structure unfolding may be a double zigzag, double combination or a flat (which would be labeled A-B-C instead of W-X-Y).

If this structure is an unfolding flat correction then primary wave B (labeled here as primary wave X) would need to reach up to a minimum of 90% the length of primary wave A at 676. Because this would give the flat correction that is unfolding at primary wave degree an odd look this is unlikely. What would have a more typical look is only a little more upwards movement, or none, and for the next corrective structure downwards to unfold at primary wave degree as a zigzag making cycle wave IV a double zigzag.

Ratios within intermediate wave (C) are: minor wave 3 is 2.58 short of equality with minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 1 or 3.

At this stage primary wave X is a flat correction because intermediate wave (A) within it subdivides as a three wave zigzag, and intermediate wave (B) is a corrective structure that is just over 100% the length of intermediate wave (A). So far intermediate wave (C) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse and has no Fibonacci ratio with intermediate wave (A).

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

A five wave structure downwards can only be seen if the fifth wave is truncated.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves iii and i, and subminuette wave v is 0.87 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Within minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 0.84 longer than equality with subminuette wave a.

If minuette wave (ii) moves any higher it may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 513.74.

If this wave count is invalidated by upwards movement then the alternate wave count below may be used.

Alternate Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

Within intermediate wave (C) the structure may be incomplete. Downwards movement over the last week or so may be minor wave 4.

At 523 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1, but minor wave 3 is longer.

If minor wave 4 moves lower it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 471.89. Invalidation of this alternate may be taken as confirmation of the main wave count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

Within minor wave 4 there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Minor wave 5 may unfold as one of two structures: as an impulse as labeled here or as an ending diagonal which is still possible.

This alternate expects some increase in upwards momentum over the next few days.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th June, 2013

Last analysis had a short term target on the hourly chart at 392.37 for subminuette wave iii. Price moved lower as expected, falling short of the target by $5.68.

This downwards trend is not over for the short term.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

I have removed targets for minor wave 3 and intermediate wave (3). Because we have not seen a strong increase in downwards momentum yet I expect the middle of this third wave has not yet passed. I expect momentum to increase. Targets calculated may have been too high. As these waves get closer to completion I will use multiple wave degrees to calculate targets.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within minor wave 3 downwards minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave iii is incomplete.

I may reconsider the degree of labeling again in the next few days. Although downwards momentum has increased it has not increased enough for this to be the middle of a third wave at several degrees. I expect there may yet be stronger downwards momentum ahead.

Subminuette wave iv is likely to be over because it has found resistance at the upper edge of a small narrow channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique about minuette wave (iii).

Subminuette wave iii is 3.45 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 390 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

At 392 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This gives us a $2 target zone with a good probability for the next wave down.

When minuette wave (iii) is completed redraw the channel. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to wherever minuette wave (iii) ends, place a parallel copy upon the high of minuette wave (ii). Such a channel should better contain this downwards movement. Expect the following fourth wave correction for minuette wave (iv) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel.

At this stage if subminuette wave iv moves any higher it may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 433.32.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th June, 2013

Last analysis of AAPL expected choppy overlapping upwards movement for a second wave correction. Price has moved sideways since last analysis. The structure of this correction is still incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete.

At 381 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change or widen to a zone.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains viable.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

To start minor wave 3 downwards minute wave i subdivides into a leading expanding diagonal. Following a leading diagonal in a first wave position the second wave is often very deep.

At this stage minute wave ii subdivides as a flat correction; minuette wave (a) subdivides as a three, minuette wave (b) is a three and 103% the length of minuette wave (a), and minuette wave (c) is incomplete. It is possible that minute wave ii is complete as a running flat (the subdivisions fit) but this is extremely unlikely. What is more likely is that minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a) at 440.70.

It is extremely likely that minuette wave (c) will make a new high above the end of minuette wave (a) at 436.29 to avoid a truncation and a rare running flat. A running flat following a leading diagonal does not make sense.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 457.10.

While minuette wave (c) is incomplete subminuette wave ii within it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 428.50.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th June, 2013

Last week’s analysis of Oil expected more upwards movement which is what has happened. The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is complete and minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double zigzag. Within the double zigzag structure of minor wave 2 the first zigzag labeled minute wave w is complete, as is the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x. Within minute wave y zigzag minuette wave (a) subdivides into a five wave impulse. Minuette wave (b) is a completed zigzag, and minuette wave (c) upwards is incomplete.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within the structure of minuette wave (c) subminuette waves i through to iv may be complete. Minuette wave (c) may be unfolding as an impulse.

Subminuette wave iii is just 0.04 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 96.49 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

At 98.36 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a) within the zigzag of minute wave y. This would bring minor wave 2 right up to the start of minor wave 1.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (c). Draw the first trend line from the lows of subminuette waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the high of subminuette wave iii. Expect subminuette wave v to most likely end midway within this channel.

As soon as we can see another five wave structure upwards complete from the low of subminuette wave iv then it will be possible that subminuette wave v is complete. At that stage the short term invalidation point must be removed and we would expect a trend change.

Within subminuette wave v no second wave correction may move beyond its start. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 94.07.

If this wave count is invalidated with downwards movement then I would expect that this final fifth wave has come to an end and so minor wave 2 in its entirety may be over.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards movement which is not what happened. Price has moved higher, but has remained below the invalidation point on the daily chart so the wave count remains valid.

This long deep upwards movement looks to be of a higher degree than initially thought. I have adjusted the degree of labeling within recent movement up one degree.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (2) failed to move above the high of minor wave A at 469.95 and has completed as a rare running flat.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains a viable alternate.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Upwards movement looks so far like a second wave correction. Second waves are often very deep and so this has a typical look.

Within minute wave ii minuette wave (a) is a leading diagonal and minuette wave (b) may possibly be a triangle.

At 460.50 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a). At 461.49 subminuette wave v within minuette wave (c) would reach equality in length length with subminuette wave iii. This gives us a 0.99 target zone for a little more upwards movement to complete this correction.

When minute wave ii is complete we should expect downwards movement with an increase in momentum as a third wave unfolds.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th May, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement from Apple before a correction. Price has not move lower. Price has moved higher but remains below the invalidation point.

I have considered various alternatives for this most recent movement down from the high at 465.75. I expect we are still in a new downwards trend which should increase downwards momentum over the next few weeks to months.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (2) failed to move above the high of minor wave A at 469.95 and has completed as a rare running flat.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

When this next five wave impulse labeled primary wave 3 is complete we shall have to consider that may be the end of cycle wave a as a three wave zigzag if super cycle wave II is unfolding as a big flat correction. I will consider that alternative at the appropriate time if it remains a viable alternate.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The breadth and depth of this upwards movement indicates it is a second wave correction to follow a first wave down.

The first wave labeled minuette wave (i) can be seen as a five wave impulse.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.95 short of equality with subminuette wave i.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 0.43 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of micro waves 1 or 3.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is just 0.53 longer than equality with submicro wave (3).

If minuette wave (ii) moves any higher (and it may) then it may end just a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 447.85.

Movement below the parallel channel which contains minuette wave (ii) upwards would provide trend channel confirmation that the correction is over and third wave downwards should have begun.

At 370 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If minuette wave (ii) moves higher then this target must move correspondingly higher also.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th May, 2013

Analysis of AAPL at the beginning of this week expected upwards movement extremely likely to move above 469.95. Price did not move higher, and although the wave count is not yet invalidated at the hourly chart level it does not look right. I have adjusted the wave count at minor degree today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (2) failed to move above the high of minor wave A at 469.95 and has completed as a rare running flat.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C is just 2.17 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

At 289.78 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When there is more structure within intermediate wave (3) to analyse I will add a target calculation at minor degree for it to end, so this target will probably change.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 465.75.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C subdivides perfectly as an impulse.

Ratios within minor wave C are: minute wave iii is 3.97 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.21 longer than equality with minute wave i. This is a most typical impulsive structure which adds confidence that this wave count is correct.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.07 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) within minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii is 1.41 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.42 short of 0.382 the length of subminuette wave (iii).

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.24 longer than 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.19 short of equality with minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) within minute wave v are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.13 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.51 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave v of minuette wave (iii) of minute wave v are: micro wave 3 is 0.42 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.36 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 1.

A channel drawn about minor wave C using Elliott’s technique fits this movement perfectly and is now clearly breached.

Within the new downwards movement to begin intermediate wave (3) the first impulse downwards is incomplete. Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iii is just 0.02 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 413.75 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

We may draw a channel about minuette wave (iii) downwards. Draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave iii. I would expect subminuette wave v to end about midway within this channel, or to find support about the lower edge if it moves down that low.

Within minutte wave (iii) if subminuette wave iv moves any higher it may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 450.48.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th May, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement to just below 453.70. Price has moved slightly lower to 450.48 so far, but has not convincingly turned upwards yet since the low.

The wave count remains the same. I still expect it is highly likely price will move above 469.95 before we see a trend change and a new wave down.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count expects a five wave impulse for a cycle degree wave a is unfolding to the downside. Within the impulse primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Primary wave 3 is extending. Within primary wave 3 intermediate wave (1) is complete, and intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete flat correction. It is extremely likely that minor wave C within intermediate wave (2) will move above the high of minor wave A at 469.95 to avoid a truncation and a rare running flat.

Within minor wave C within intermediate wave (2), at 480.63 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave i.

At 272 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. This long term target is still months away.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 594.59.

I have considered various possibilities for this downwards movement from the high labeled primary wave 2. What is most clear is that the middle of primary wave 3 has not yet passed because we have not seen momentum increase beyond that seen for primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 cannot be complete.

A channel drawn about intermediate wave (1) using Elliott’s channeling technique has been clearly breached. This indicates that this impulse is over and the correction to follow it has begun.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The structure for minute wave iv may now be complete. It would be possible, but very unlikely, that this fourth wave could continue further as if it did it would become too out of proportion to minute wave ii.

There is perfect alternation between minute wave iv as a shallow (19.5%) regular flat correction, and minute wave ii as a deep (74.6%) zigzag.

On the five minute chart upwards movement since 450.48 subdivides into a five wave impulse, so far.

The channel drawn here using Elliott’s second technique has broken down and is not longer showing where price is finding support. I would expect price to move back into the channel and for upwards movement to end mid way within it, but it may not.

I also would expect this upwards trend to continue for most if not all this week. It may end next week.

If minute wave iv continues further sideways and lower as a double flat or combination then it may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 415.25.

If this wave count is invalidated with downwards movement then there is an outlying possibility that intermediate wave (2) may be over as a rare running flat and a third wave down may have begun.