Tag Archives: nasdaq 2015 trend

Nasdaq Composite Elliott Wave Analysis – 12th November, 2015

Last Nasdaq analysis expected upwards movement to either 5,142 or 5,156. Price moved higher to reach 5,163 and has since turned down.

To see monthly and weekly charts for bull and bear click here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BULL WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Grand Super Cycle wave II is seen here as over in just 31 months. This is possible, but it is more likely it would last longer than this.

This wave count sees Nasdaq in a Grand Super Cycle wave III upwards.

The bull market trend line was breached by a close more than 3% of value below it on 20th August.

There is a 5-3-5 complete thus far to the downside. This may be a three wave structure for a primary degree A or W wave for this more bullish wave count (more bullish than the very bearish wave count below). Cycle wave IV is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle to exhibit alternation with the zigzag of cycle wave II.

If cycle wave IV is a flat correction, then primary wave A may be a complete three. Primary wave B is 0.93 the length of primary wave A, more than the minimum requirement for a flat at 0.9. This may be a regular flat. Primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A at 4,224.

If cycle wave IV is a combination, then the first structure is a completed zigzag which would be labelled primary wave W. The double would now be joined by a complete three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled primary wave X. Primary wave Y may be a flat which needs to begin with a clear five down for a movement at primary degree. The second structure in a double combination for primary wave Y would be expected to end about the same level as the first, about 4,292 so that the whole thing moves sideways.

If cycle wave IV is a triangle, then primary wave A would be a complete zigzag. Primary wave B would now also be a complete zigzag. Primary wave C for a triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave A at 4,292.14. A triangle could take several months to unfold as price moves sideways in an ever decreasing range.

At this stage, a short term upper invalidation point would be at 5,163.47. If primary wave C or Y has begun, then within the first five down no second wave correction may move beyond its start.

BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The bear wave count just moves everything from the all time high at 5,132.52 all down one degree. Grand Super Cycle wave II may be an incomplete flat, combination or double flat.

A new low below 2,861.51 would invalidate the bull wave count and confirm a huge market crash.

All subdivisions are seen in exactly the same way, only the degree of labelling is different.

There may now be either a complete five down with a severely truncated fifth wave as labelled, or there may be a complete three down for a first wave of a leading diagonal.

The structure of the next wave down and then the depth of the following upwards correction would indicate if an impulse or a leading diagonal is unfolding. If the next wave down is a zigzag, then a leading diagonal would be unfolding. If the next wave down is an impulse, then it would be more likely a larger impulse would be unfolding. If the following correction moves above 4,292.14, then it would overlap back into a first wave of a leading diagonal, and a leading diagonal would be indicated. If it remains below 4,292.14, then an impulse would be indicated.

Primary wave 2 should now be over as a deep zigzag. At 3,958 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1. No second wave correction may move beyond its start above 5,163.47 within primary wave 3.

The bear market trend line was breached by a close of more than 3% of market value. This is a warning that this bear wave count may be wrong. While none of the indices (S&P500, DJIA, DJT or Nasdaq) have made new all time highs though a bear market should be expected to remain intact.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A more conservatively drawn trend line from the end of March 2009 is drawn here (blue line). It was reasonably shallow, repeatedly tested, and is highly technically significant. It has been breached and provided resistance.

Since May 2010, overall, as price rose to all time highs volume declined. The bull market was not well supported by volume and is suspicious.

There was slight negative technical divergence with price and MACD at the all time high.

On Balance Volume has breached a trend line held since May 2012, (green line) which is bearish. OBV is turning up. If it finds resistance at the green line and does not break through, that would be further bearishness and the strength of that line would be reinforced. If OBV breaches the longer held blue line, that would be further and stronger bearish indication.

There is negative divergence between price and RSI going back to December 2013, as price made all time highs. This is a strong bearish indicator. This was also seen up to March 2000, and was followed by a 78% drop in market value to the low of 1,108 in October 2012. It does not mean that the market must make a similar fall at this time, but it is a strong bearish indicator.

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume declined slightly while price has been rising overall for 25 days. The rise in price was not supported by volume and is suspicious.

ADX is turning downwards indicating no trend currently. The -DX and +DX lines may be coming to cross. If they do, it would indicate a trend change.

So far the fall in price of the last seven days comes on overall a decline in volume. Volume is not supporting price movement either way.

Price may find some support here at the breakaway gap. If the gap is closed and price closes below the horizontal trend line, that would be a bearish indicator. If price bounces up from here to new highs, then it would be a strong bullish indicator.

On Balance Volume is a good leading indicator and works well with trend lines. It has breached the upwards sloping blue line, a bearish indicator, three days before price found the last high. OBV has come to touch a short held downwards sloping line. If this is breached, it would be further bearishness. If OBV bounces up from here, it would reinforce the strength of that line. OBV needs to break above the dark blue line for it to provide a bullish indication.

Nasdaq Composite Elliott Wave Analysis – 28th October, 2015

Nasdaq has breached its bull market trend line by a close of more than 3% of market value.

I have two Elliott wave counts today. The first is bullish, still at super cycle degree. The second expects Nasdaq is in the early stages of a huge market crash.

To see detail of weekly charts which shows subdivisions of cycle wave III (bull) or cycle wave c (bear) see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BULL WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Grand Super Cycle wave II is seen here as over in just 31 months. This is possible, but it is more likely it would last longer than this.

This wave count sees Nasdaq in a Grand Super Cycle wave III upwards.

There is no Fibonacci ratios between cycle waves I and III.

Super Cycle wave (I) is an incomplete impulse. Within Super Cycle wave (I), cycle wave IV is underway.

Cycle wave II was a very deep 0.91 zigzag lasting 17 months. Cycle wave IV should exhibit alternation, so is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. These are more time consuming structures than zigzags, so cycle wave IV should last at least 18 months and may last a total Fibonacci 21 or more likely 34 months.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 2,861.51.

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The bull market trend line was breached by a close more than 3% of value below it on 20th August.

There is a 5-3-5 complete thus far to the downside. This may be a three wave structure for a primary degree A or W wave for this more bullish wave count (more bullish than the very bearish wave count below). Cycle wave IV is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle to exhibit alternation with the zigzag of cycle wave II.

If cycle wave IV is a flat correction, then primary wave A may be a complete three. Primary wave B must retrace a minimum 90% of primary wave A at 5,138. Primary wave B may make a new all time high above the start of primary wave A as in an expanded flat. Primary wave B must subdivide as a three.

If cycle wave IV is a combination, then the first structure is a completed zigzag which would be labelled primary wave W. The double should be joined by a three in the opposite correction labelled primary wave X. Primary wave X may be any corrective structure, has no minimum requirement, and may make a new high above the start of primary wave W.

If cycle wave IV is a triangle, then primary wave A would be a complete zigzag. Primary wave B must be a three wave structure and may make a new high above the start of primary wave A as in a running triangle.

If a zigzag is unfolding upwards for primary wave B or W, then at 5,156 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

There is no upper invalidation point for any of these three most likely structures. At this stage, it is impossible to know which structure cycle wave IV may unfold as.

BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The bear wave count just moves everything from the all time high at 5,132.52 all down one degree. Grand Super Cycle wave II may be an incomplete flat, combination or double flat.

A new low below 2,861.51 would invalidate the bull wave count and confirm a huge market crash.

All subdivisions are seen in exactly the same way, only the degree of labelling is different.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II is a combination, then super cycle wave (y) would be a zigzag or triangle.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II is a double flat, then super cycle wave (y) would be a flat correction ending about the same level as super cycle wave (w) at 1,160.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II is a regular flat, then super cycle wave (c) would be a five wave structure to end below super cycle wave (a) at 1,160 to avoid a truncation.

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

There may now be either a complete five down with a severely truncated fifth wave as labelled, or there may be a complete three down for a first wave of a leading diagonal. For both ideas the second wave may not move beyond the start of the first above 5,231.94.

The structure of the next wave down and then the depth of the following upwards correction would indicate if an impulse or a leading diagonal is unfolding. If the next wave down is a zigzag, then a leading diagonal would be unfolding. If the next wave down is an impulse, then it would be more likely a larger impulse would be unfolding. If the following correction moves above 4,292.14, then it would overlap back into a first wave of a leading diagonal, and a leading diagonal would be indicated. If it remains below 4,292.14, then an impulse would be indicated.

At 5,142 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A more conservatively drawn trend line from the end of March 2009 is drawn here (blue line). It was reasonably shallow, repeatedly tested, and is highly technically significant. It has been breached and provided resistance.

Since May 2010, overall, as price rose to all time highs volume declined. The bull market was not well supported by volume and is suspicious.

There was slight negative technical divergence with price and MACD at the all time high.

On Balance Volume has breached a trend line held since May 2012 (green line) which is bearish. If OBV breaches the longer held blue line that would be further and stronger bearish indication.

There is negative divergence between price and RSI going back to December 2013, as price made all time highs. This is a strong bearish indicator. This was also seen up to March 2000, and was followed by a 78% drop in market value to the low of 1,108 in October 2012. It does not mean that the market must make a similar fall at this time, but it is a strong bearish indicator.

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The break above the upper horizontal trend line which previously provided resistance came with a breakaway gap and on an increase in upwards volume. This looks like Nasdaq has broken out of a consolidation zone to the upside.

MACD shows an increase in upwards momentum.

ADX is above 15 and rising, the +DX line is above the -DX line. This indicates potentially the start of a new upwards trend.

On Balance Volume remains above the short blue trend line.

So far all these indicators at the daily chart level are bullish. However, the picture at the monthly chart level remains very bearish.

When Nasdaq breached its long held bull market trend line on 20th August that indicated a market switch from bull to bear. For confidence in a switch back to a bull market the same approach should be used. The bear market trend line drawn here (and on the bear daily chart) is drawn using the approach outlined by Magee in “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”. When that line is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value then a market change from bear to bull would be indicated. So far that has not happened.

Price needs to close at or above 5,075 to confirm a change back to a bull market. While that has not happened it should be assumed the trend remains the same, downwards.

Stochastics shows some divergence as price made new highs Stochastics failed to confirm. This is a weak bearish signal.

Nasdaq Composite Elliott Wave Analysis – 6th October, 2015

Nasdaq has breached its bull market trend line by a close of more than 3% of market value.

I have two Elliott wave counts today. The first is bullish still at super cycle degree. The second expects Nasdaq is in the early stages of a huge market crash.

Changes to last analysis are bold.

BULL WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Grand Super Cycle wave II is seen here as over in just 31 months. This is possible, but it is more likely it would last longer than this.

This wave count sees Nasdaq in a Grand Super Cycle wave III upwards.

There is no Fibonacci ratios between cycle waves I and III.

Super Cycle wave (I) is an incomplete impulse. Within Super Cycle wave (I), cycle wave IV is underway.

Cycle wave II was a very deep 0.91 zigzag lasting 17 months. Cycle wave IV should exhibit alternation, so is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. These are more time consuming structures than zigzags, so cycle wave IV should last at least 18 months and may last a total Fibonacci 21 or more likely 34 months.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 2,861.51.

WEEKLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Within cycle wave III, there are no Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within primary wave 3 are: intermediate wave (3) is 28.3 short of 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (1) or (3).

Within intermediate wave (3), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave iii is 119.3 points longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i (this variation is less than 10% the length of minute wave iii and so acceptable), and minute wave v is 36.6 points short of 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 26 points longer than 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Nasdaq just does not reliably exhibit Fibonacci ratios in its impulses. This makes target calculation unreliable.

Cycle wave IV may end about either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios of cycle wave III at 3,748 or 3,042.

The bull market trend line is drawn from the end of cycle wave II in March 2009, to the end of minuette wave (ii) in November 2012. This trend line has been breached by a close of more than 3% of market value indicating a market change from bull to bear.

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The bull market trend line was breached by a close more than 3% of value below it on 20th August.

There is a 5-3-5 complete thus far to the downside. This may be a three wave structure for a primary degree A or W wave for this more bullish wave count (more bullish than the very bearish wave count below). Cycle wave IV is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle to exhibit alternation with the zigzag of cycle wave II.

If cycle wave IV is a flat correction, then primary wave A may be a complete three. Primary wave B must retrace a minimum 90% of primary wave A at 5,138. Primary wave B may make a new all time high above the start of primary wave A as in an expanded flat. Primary wave B must subdivide as a three.

If cycle wave IV is a combination, then the first structure is a completed zigzag which would be labelled primary wave W. The double should be joined by a three in the opposite correction labelled primary wave X. Primary wave X may be any corrective structure, has no minimum requirement, and may make a new high above the start of primary wave W.

If cycle wave IV is a triangle, then primary wave A would be a complete zigzag. Primary wave B must be a three wave structure and may make a new high above the start of primary wave A as in a running triangle.

If a zigzag is unfolding upwards for primary wave B or W, then at 5,156 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

There is no upper invalidation point for any of these three most likely structures. At this stage, it is impossible to know which structure cycle wave IV may unfold as.

BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The bear wave count just moves everything from the all time high at 5,132.52 all down one degree. Grand Super Cycle wave II may be an incomplete flat, combination or double flat.

A new low below 2,861.51 would invalidate the bull wave count and confirm a huge market crash.

All subdivisions are seen in exactly the same way, only the degree of labelling is different.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II is a combination, then super cycle wave (y) would be a zigzag or triangle.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II is a double flat, then super cycle wave (y) would be a flat correction ending about the same level as super cycle wave (w) at 1,160.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II is a regular flat, then super cycle wave (c) would be a five wave structure to end below super cycle wave (a) at 1,160 to avoid a truncation.

WEEKLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The labelling of this upwards impulse is exactly the same as the bull wave count at the weekly chart level because 1-2-3 of an impulse subdivides 5-3-5, exactly the same as a zigzag. Here the bull market from March 2009 is seen as a zigzag for a super cycle wave (b). Super cycle wave (b) was a 101% length of super cycle wave (a).

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

A move down at Grand Super Cycle degree should begin with a clear five down at primary degree. So far only 1-2-3-4 may be complete. Intermediate wave (5) may be unfolding.

Within intermediate wave (5), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 4,960.87.

At 4,019 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

This idea expects an extended fifth wave for intermediate wave (5).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

A more conservatively drawn trend line from the end of March 2009 is drawn here (blue line). It was reasonably shallow, repeatedly tested, and is highly technically significant. It has been breached and provided resistance.

Since May 2010, overall, as price rose to all time highs volume declined. The bull market was not well supported by volume and is suspicious.

There was slight negative technical divergence with price and MACD at the all time high.

On Balance Volume has breached a trend line held since May 2012 (green line) which is bearish. If OBV breaches the longer held blue line that would be further and stronger bearish indication.

There is negative divergence between price and RSI going back to December 2013, as price made all time highs. This is a strong bearish indicator. This was also seen up to March 2000, and was followed by a 78% drop in market value to the low of 1,108 in October 2012. It does not mean that the market must make a similar fall at this time, but it is a strong bearish indicator.

DAILY CHART

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Since early September, the black ADX line has been overall moving lower indicating the market is no longer trending but consolidating. Price has been swinging between horizontal lines of support and resistance.

Upwards movement may find resistance at the sloping blue trend line, or at the 200 day Simple Moving Average, or at the upper horizontal red trend line. A range bound trading approach would expect the current upwards swing to only end when price finds resistance and Stochastics is overbought. Neither of these conditions are currently met.

While price has been moving sideways and consolidating, it is a downwards day which has strongest volume suggesting the breakout when it comes is more likely to be downwards than upwards.

While price remains below the 200 day SMA and the bull market trend line has been breached, it is reasonable to expect that Nasdaq remains in a bear market. Any bullish wave count at this stage would be counter to this technical analysis. Both Elliott wave counts are mid term bearish.

Nasdaq Composite Elliott Wave Analysis – 28th June, 2015

(Mostly) charts only today.

Bull Wave Count

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 4,116.60. However, if the bull trend line (aqua blue) is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value, then this wave count should be discarded.

Daily Bull Alternate

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

By simply moving the last impulse up one degree, it is possible that Nasdaq has just seen a cycle degree trend change. This idea requires confirmation with a close 3% or more of market value below the bull market trend line.

Bear Wave Count

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

The bear wave count just moves everything from the all time high at 5,132.52 all down one degree. Super cycle wave (II) may be an incomplete flat or combination.

Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX is below 20 and flat indicating low volatility, very short swings, and no clear trend.

An upwards trend is still favoured while price is above the 34 day EMA and particularly above the bull trend line. A parallel copy of the bull trend line is created to show where price is currently finding support.

Nasdaq Composite Elliott Wave Analysis – 18th May, 2015

This Elliott wave count presents the bull count first as more likely. While price remains above the bull trend line, I will assume that Nasdaq remains in a bull market.

We should always assume the trend remains the same, until proven otherwise.

Click charts to enlarge.

Bull Wave Count

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015

At 5,855 cycle wave III would reach 1.618 the length of cycle wave I.

At 9,376 super cycle wave (III) would reach 1.618 the length of super cycle wave (I).

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 2,861.51.

Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 4,116.60. However, if the bull trend line (aqua blue) is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value this wave count should be discarded.

Daily Bull Alternate

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015

By simply moving the last impulse up one degree it is possible that Nasdaq has just seen a cycle degree trend change. This is unlikely at this stage.

Bear Wave Count

Nasdaq Composite monthly 2015

The bear wave count just moves everything from the all time high at 5,132.52 all down one degree. Super cycle wave (II) may be an incomplete flat or combination.

Nasdaq Composite weekly 2015

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq Composite daily 2015

ADX is below 20 and flat indicating low volatility, very short swings and no clear trend.

An upwards trend is still favoured while price is above the 34 day EMA and particularly above the bull trend line. A parallel copy of the bull trend line is created to show where price is currently finding support.