Tag Archives: ftse 2015 trend

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th January, 2016

Again, I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may be within the middle of a third wave down. The middle of the third wave may end at 5,383.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The current wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave. It is my judgement that this wave count has a higher probability.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be confirmed as the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). When minor waves 3 and 4 within this impulse are complete, then the target may also be calculated at minor degree. At that stage, it may widen to a zone or it may change.

Within intermediate wave (3), I am removing the target for minor wave 3. It will again be calculated when minute waves iii and iv within the impulse are complete. For now I want to focus on the next interruption to the trend expected at the end of minute wave iii.

At 5,383 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may not be low enough.

Minute wave ii was not over as expected at last analysis but moved higher. It is more likely to be over now that it is a clear three wave structure. Minor wave 2 one degree higher was deeper at 0.9 and longer lasting at 12 days than minute wave ii which was 0.77 and lasted 8 days. These corrections are still in proportion giving this part of the wave count the right look.

The lower cyan trend line is slightly adjusted. If it is drawn from the swing lows of 24th August to 29th September, then it shows where price found resistance on 18th and 21st December. Price has closed below this line today which may provide some resistance for a small bounce. If that happens, then it may present a good entry point to join a downwards trend.

The black channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Intermediate wave (3) should have the power to break below support at the lower edge of this channel.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

Within minuette wave (iii), no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 6,314.57.

At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Overall volume was low and light as price rose to the last high of 29th December. Today, a strong downwards day shows a strong increase in volume. The fall in price is supported by volume.

Price has closed below the sloping cyan trend line. This may now provide some resistance to upwards corrections along the way down.

If price can close below the support line about 6,030, then the next line of support is about 5,870.

ADX is flat to declining and is not indicating there is a trend yet. ATR is beginning to increase which may be the start of a new trend.

RSI is again neutral allowing room for the market to fall.

Stochastics is returning from overbought.

Price should be expected to fall until it finds support, and to bounce about there.

This analysis is published about 03:01 p.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th December, 2015

Again, I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may be within the middle of a third wave down. The middle of the third wave may end at 5,229.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The current wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave. I am swapping over the two wave counts this week. It is my judgement that this wave count has a higher probability.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be confirmed as the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). When minor waves 3 and 4 within this impulse are complete, then the target may also be calculated at minor degree. At that stage, it may widen to a zone or it may change.

Within intermediate wave (3), I am removing the target for minor wave 3. It will again be calculated when minute waves iii and iv within the impulse are complete. For now I want to focus on the next interruption to the trend expected at the end of minute wave iii.

At 5,229 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. If this target is wrong, it may not be low enough.

Minute wave ii has very likely ended at Thursday’s high as it should find resistance at the upwards sloping cyan trend line. If it does not end there though and continues, then it may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,447.34. This is the risk with the FTSE wave count today.

The black channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Intermediate wave (3) should have the power to break below support at the lower edge of this channel.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

No second wave correction may move beyond its start above 6,447.34 within minute wave iii.

At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

There was some support by an increase in volume as price fell. Stronger volume is seen for downwards days than upwards days. Most importantly, the last three days of upwards movement has come on declining volume for each successive day.

There is a very strong bearish engulfing candlestick pattern at the high of 2nd December. Thursday’s green candlestick has a long upper shadow. Although the bulls pushed price strongly upwards they could not hold it there, so the bears pushed it back down. Three upper shadows in a row have lengthened, so each day the bears had a greater impact. This indicates it is likely tomorrow’s candlestick may be red.

Price broke below the cyan trend line and has come back up for a possible throwback. When price behaves like this a perfect opportunity to join the trend appears, often at a good price.

ADX is flat to rising. It is indicating there may be a downwards trend. The last three days of upwards movement has flattened ADX. If the ADX line turns back upwards, then a downwards trend would again be indicated.

ATR mostly agrees as it is rising overall. This indicates the market should be trending.

The last three days have resolved RSI being oversold. There is again plenty of room for the market to fall. If price falls through the next two horizontal lines of support at 6,040 and 5,877, then the next line of support is at 5,768.

This analysis is published about 10:43 p.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th December, 2015

I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may have today begun the middle of a third wave down. Both wave counts have a target for this downwards fall to end at 5,787.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this first wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,487.89 within minor wave 5.

At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Price is finding support as expected at the lower cyan trend line. A small bounce up may be seen from here. If price breaks below this line, expect downwards momentum to increase. Look for upwards corrections to find resistance at the upper black trend line.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The next wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,487.89 within intermediate wave (3). This channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of that channel. The channel is not working perfectly but may continue to show were upwards movement may find some resistance.

If a third wave down is underway, then it should have the power to break below the lower edge of this base channel. If that happens, this wave count would be strongly preferred over the first wave count. A third wave would be confirmed.

The short term target is the same. At 5,787 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

The downwards day of 9th December showed strong volume. There is some support for this fall in price.

Price is finding support at the cyan trend line. This may initiate a small bounce. If price breaks below the cyan trend line, that would be a reasonably bearish indicator. It may then throwback to that line. When price behaves like that it offers a perfect opportunity to join a trend at a good price.

The next line of support is the next horizontal trend line.

RSI is neutral. There is plenty of room for the market to rise or fall.

ADX is rising but still below 15. If it reaches above 15, a new downwards trend would be indicated. ATR is flat to slightly increasing, not indicating a new trend yet.

If there is a new trend, then Stochastics may remain extreme for some time. Patience is advised. A new trend may be indicated in another day or two.

This analysis is published about 03:13 a.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th December, 2015

I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: FTSE may have today begun the middle of a third wave down. Both wave counts have a target for this downwards fall to end at 5,787.

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this first wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The Elliott channel is not working perfectly, but it may still show where price may find some resistance along the way down.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,487.89 within minor wave 5.

Minute wave ii is very likely to be over. There is almost no room left for it to move into and today’s strong downwards day looks like the start of a new impulse. At 5,787 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Along the way down, FTSE may find some support for a small bounce at the cyan trend line.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The next wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,487.89 within intermediate wave (3). This channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of that channel. The channel is not working perfectly but may continue to show were upwards movement may find some resistance.

If a third wave down is underway, then it should have the power to break below the lower edge of this base channel. If that happens, this wave count would be strongly preferred over the first wave count. A third wave would be confirmed.

The short term target is the same. At 5,787 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

A strong downwards day comes on some increase in volume. There was some support for this fall in price.

Price has closed just below the next horizontal trend line, but it is not completely clear exactly where this line should be. Price may yet find some support about here for a small bounce.

RSI is neutral. There is plenty of room for the market to rise or fall.

ADX is flat and below 15. No trend is indicated. ADX does tend to be a lagging indicator. ATR mostly agrees; it has been declining. For the last two days ATR has turned upwards. This may indicate the early stages of a new trend and should be watched closely.

Price found resistance at the upper horizontal trend line while Stochastics was overbought. Price has turned downwards after finding resistance, so now should be expected to continue overall to move lower until it finds support and Stochastics is oversold at the same time. At this stage, Stochastics is only just beginning to turn down. There is a long way for price to fall before Stochastics reaches oversold.

This analysis is published about 01:39 a.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th November, 2015

I have only bear Elliott wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: So far I have not been able to find other bull alternatives which fit. Of all the markets I currently analyse, FTSE is the clearest bear. I have two wave counts for FTSE. Both see the all time high as a trend change at cycle degree (the degree may be wrong; it may be super cycle degree).

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this first wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. In this instance minor wave 5 may find support at the lower edge. Along the way down, upwards corrections against the trend should find resistance at the upper edge. If this wave count is wrong, the first indication would be a breach of the upper edge of the channel.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 6,487.89 within minor wave 5.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The next wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,487.89 within intermediate wave (3). Again, if this wave count is wrong, first indication would come with a breach of the upper edge of the black channel. This channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of that channel.

If a third wave down is underway, then it should have the power to break below the lower edge of this base channel. If that happens, this wave count would be strongly preferred over the first wave count. A third wave would be confirmed.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Price has essentially been moving sideways since the low of 24th August. During this time, the downwards day of 18th September has strongest volume which indicates a breakout from this sideways move is more likely to be downwards than upwards.

Overall, ADX is pointing lower. The consolidation is maturing, the trend should resume soon, but for now the breakout has not yet happened.

A new low below the low of 24th August and an increase in volume would add confidence that a downwards breakout is underway.

Prior to that, a break below either the lowest red horizontal trend line or the lower cyan sloping trend line would indicate a breakout if it comes on a downwards day with higher volume.

Likewise, a break above the upper horizontal line of resistance on higher volume would indicate an upwards breakout.

Overall for the last week, ATR is low and flat and should be expected to increase when price breaks out and begins to trend again.

This analysis is published about 04:33 a.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th November, 2015

I have only bear wave counts for FTSE.

Summary: So far I have not been able to find other bull alternatives which fit. Of all the markets I currently analyse, FTSE is the clearest bear. I have two wave counts for FTSE. Both see the all time high as a trend change at cycle degree (the degree may be wrong; it may be super cycle degree).

To see monthly and weekly charts and the bigger picture see last analysis here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

FIRST WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far downwards movement may be 1-2-3-4 with a fifth wave needed.

If the next wave down shows a decrease in momentum beyond that seen for minor wave 3, then this first wave count would be preferred. At 5,172 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 3.

The channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique. In this instance minor wave 5 may find support at the lower edge. Along the way down, upwards corrections against the trend should find resistance at the upper edge. If this wave count is wrong, the first indication would be a breach of the upper edge of the channel.

SECOND WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Thanks to a member, Stuart, for sending this idea to me. The implications are important. The next wave down for FTSE may be a strong third wave.

If the next wave down shows an increase in momentum, then this would be the preferred wave count for FTSE.

At 4,296 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 6,487.89 within intermediate wave (3). Again, if this wave count is wrong, first indication would come with a breach of the upper edge of the black channel. This channel is a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2). Along the way down, upwards corrections should find resistance at the upper edge of that channel.

If a third wave down is underway, then it should have the power to break below the lower edge of this base channel. If that happens, this wave count would be strongly preferred over the first wave count. A third wave would be confirmed.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Price has essentially been moving sideways since the low of 24th August. During this time, the downwards day of 18th September has strongest volume which indicates a breakout from this sideways move is more likely to be downwards than upwards.

Overall, ADX is pointing lower. The consolidation is maturing, the trend should resume soon, but for now the breakout has not yet happened.

A new low below the low of 24th August and an increase in volume would add confidence that a downwards breakout is underway.

Prior to that, a break below either the lowest red horizontal trend line or the lower cyan sloping trend line would indicate a breakout if it comes on a downwards day with higher volume.

Price has broken through support at the second horizontal line and is finding support just above the lower horizontal line. A breakout may now be much closer.

ATR is beginning to turn upwards indicating a possible start to a new trend.

This analysis is published about 01:42 a.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th October, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th October, 2015

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th September, 2015

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd September, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd September, 2015

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th September, 2015

There is only one Elliott Wave count for FTSE.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th September, 2015