Tag Archives: aapl trend

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis of AAPL was invalidated by upwards movement. I have a new wave count for you.

Click on charts to enlarge.

AAPL daily 2014

Cycle wave b may be continuing as a double zigzag. The second structure in the double is incomplete. At 638.97 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A).

Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 532.14.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th March, 2014

Last analysis of AAPL on 19th February, expected more downwards movement which is what has happened so far. The target has not been met and the structure is incomplete.

Click on charts to enlarge.

AAPL daily 2012

Within the bigger picture this wave count sees AAPL in a super cycle zigzag correction which is just over two thirds completed.

Within the zigzag cycle wave b ended at 571.88 with a small truncation in the final fifth wave up.

At this stage I expect a big leading expanding diagonal is unfolding for a first wave at primary degree.

Within the leading diagonal intermediate wave (2) is a 72% correction of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (4) is a 86% correction of intermediate wave (3).

I would expect intermediate wave (5) to be longer than intermediate wave (3) and to reach down to 484.54 or below.

I had expected (two weeks ago) this target should be met in about two to three weeks. Downwards movement is slow and so the target may be yet another three weeks away.

Intermediate wave (1) lasted 12 days, and intermediate wave (3) lasted 11 days. So far intermediate wave (5) has lasted 10 days. It may end in another 5 to 15 days, as I would expect it to be longer in both price and duration than intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave nor B wave may move beyond the start of the first or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 551.19.

At 252 cycle wave c would reach equality in length with cycle wave a. This target is about one year away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2014 – Charts Only

Only updated charts for you today.

It looks like minute wave iv is over and the final fifth wave down may be incomplete.

If price moves lower then subsequent movement above 546.82 would provide confirmation that intermediate wave 4 is over and intermediate wave 5 upwards to 600 is underway. A clear breach of the pink channel on the hourly chart would also provide some confidence in this trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2014

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2014

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th November, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement from AAPL. Price has moved slightly higher, but mostly sideways.

The fourth wave that I expected was over in last analysis looks like it is continuing further sideways as a contracting triangle. It is nearly complete.

If the triangle remains valid then there would be a high probability that this wave count is correct. At that stage I would expect a sharp upwards thrust about $27 in length.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C upwards within a larger upwards correction for a cycle wave b zigzag.

Within primary wave C so far intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is an incomplete impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

I have redrawn the channel about intermediate wave (3) again this week using Elliott’s second channeling technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. As minor wave 4 finishes redraw the channel. I will expect minor wave 5 to end midway within this channel, or about the upper edge.

Minor wave 4 is an incomplete contracting triangle. The final e wave downwards needs to complete. Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). At 560 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1. I am aware that this target zone is rather large, and so as we get closer to the end I will try to narrow it down when I can add to it at a third wave degree.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This hourly chart shows all of the structure of minor wave 4. For the triangle to remain valid any further upwards movement of minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b at 529.28, and the final wave down for minute wave e may not move below the end of minute wave c at 516.05.

If the triangle remains valid then the next wave upwards for minor wave 5 may travel a length about equal to the widest part of the triangle, which was $26.87.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Alternate 2013

Although the main wave count has a good overall look and fit, this alternate must be considered because the main wave count does not agree with MACD.

The strongest momentum should be within a third wave. This alternate looks at the possibility that intermediate waves (3) and (4) are over.

This alternate has a problem of proportion: intermediate wave (4) is much bigger in duration than intermediate wave (2) which gives this wave count the wrong look.

At 551 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3).

Apart from a differently calculated target this alternate does not diverge with the main wave count at this stage, and the expected direction is the same.

They will diverge in the future and at that stage I will use confirmation / invalidation points to determine which wave count is correct.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th November, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards and sideways movement on the hourly chart for a fourth wave correction which is what has happened.

The wave count remains the same. I can now calculate a target for this fourth wave to end.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2013

A large zigzag structure for a fourth wave correction at supercycle degree may be unfolding.

Within the zigzag cycle wave a is a complete impulse. Within cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within the larger zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of cycle wave b.

Within primary wave B there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Within intermediate wave (2) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 has breached the parallel channel about intermediate wave (3) drawn using Elliott’s first technique. Sometimes fourth waves do this. When they do the channel should be redrawn when they have ended. I will be able to do this next week for you.

Minor wave 4 is incomplete and should move a little lower. When it is complete minor wave 5 should make new highs and move toward the target at 572.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (3) is completed I will add to this target calculation at minor wave degree, so it may change or widen to a small zone.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The hourly chart this week shows the structure of minor wave 4. It is unfolding as a zigzag.

Although minute wave a within it looks like a three wave structure on the hourly chart it has an impulsive wave count on the five minute chart. The fourth and second waves within it are out of proportion.

Minute wave b was a sideways moving zigzag.

Minute wave c is unfolding as an impulse. The final fifth wave down is required to complete the structure. This should be over within 24 hours.

At 513.61 minute wave c would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave a. At 515 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

I favour the lower end of this small target zone because it would avoid a truncation. It is most likely that minute wave c will end below the end of minute wave a at 514.54.

This would see minor wave 4 end just slightly below the 0.382 Fibonacci of minor wave 3.

I would expect minute wave c to end midway within the downward sloping channel drawn about minor wave 4. When this channel is clearly breached by subsequent upward movement then I would have confidence that minor wave 4 is over and minor wave 5 upwards is underway.