Category Archives: Apple

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th February, 2014

Last analysis of AAPL had a main and an alternate wave count. The main wave count was invalidated and the alternate confirmed with movement below 513.74.

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL daily 2012

Within the bigger picture this wave count sees AAPL in a super cycle zigzag correction which is two thirds completed.

Within the zigzag cycle wave b has recently ended at 571.88 with a small truncation in the final fifth wave up.

At this stage I expect a big leading expanding diagonal is unfolding for a first wave at primary degree.

Within the leading diagonal intermediate wave (2) is a 72% correction of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (4) is a 86% correction of intermediate wave (3).

I would expect intermediate wave (5) to be longer than intermediate wave (3) and to reach down to 484.54 or below.

This target should be met within about two to three weeks.

At 252 cycle wave c would reach equality in length with cycle wave a. This target is about one year away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th January, 2014 – Charts Only

Elliott Wave chart analysis for AAPL for 27th January, 2014. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

AAPL weekly 2012

Any movement at all during regular trading hours below 513.74 would immediately invalidate this wave count. At that stage the alternate below would be confirmed.

AAPL daily 2012

AAPL hourly 2012

Alternate Wave Count.

AAPL daily alternate 2012

Movement below 513.74 would see further downwards movement towards a target at 255.17. This target would be about one year away.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2014 – Charts Only

Only updated charts for you today.

It looks like minute wave iv is over and the final fifth wave down may be incomplete.

If price moves lower then subsequent movement above 546.82 would provide confirmation that intermediate wave 4 is over and intermediate wave 5 upwards to 600 is underway. A clear breach of the pink channel on the hourly chart would also provide some confidence in this trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2014

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2014

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th January, 2014

Analysis exactly one month ago expected to see an intermediate degree correction which should last about four weeks and end about 526.

Since 6th December, 2013 AAPL has exhibited typically corrective movement in a three wave structure, so far reaching down to 533.60, $7.60 beyond the target. I expect the structure is very close to completion. The target has been recalculated at 534.82.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This weekly chart shows the entire structure of this fourth wave correction at super cycle degree: super cycle wave IV.

Cycle wave a is a completed five wave impulse so this correction must be a zigzag. It cannot be over at the low of cycle wave a at 385.10.

Within the zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within it primary waves A and B are complete. At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

In this instance a corrective channel would be of no use to find where primary wave C should end. A channel drawn about the impulse of primary wave C may show where intermediate wave (5) completes this structure. Draw this channel first with a trend line from the highs of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the low of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (5) to end either mid way within this channel, or at the upper trend line.

When this channel is breached by subsequent movement then I would expect that cycle wave b is over and cycle wave c downwards has begun. Cycle wave c would be extremely likely to make a new low below the end of cycle wave a at 385.10 to avoid a truncation.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C upwards.

Within primary wave C so far intermediate waves (1), (2), and (3) are complete. A very small amount of downwards movement should complete intermediate wave (4) within a few hours, and thereafter only one final upwards wave for intermediate wave (5) is required to complete this structure.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 3.05 longer than equality with intermediate wave (1). Intermediate wave (3) is almost 1.618 the duration of intermediate wave (1). Both of these waves look extended, so I would expect intermediate wave (5) to not be extended.

Intermediate wave (2) lasted 19 days, and intermediate wave (4) has so far lasted 20 days. This almost perfect proportion gives the wave count the “right look”. If intermediate wave (4) completes with one more daily candlestick downwards it would have lasted a total of a Fibonacci 21 days.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 513.74.

I would expect intermediate wave (5) to most likely end at the upper edge of the parallel trend channel.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This hourly chart shows the entire structure of intermediate wave (4) so far. Minor wave C has just passed equality with minor wave A, and if the target is reached minor waves A and C would have a very close ratio of equality.

Within minor wave C there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii. At 534.82 minute wave v would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minor wave C should end about the lower end of the larger blue parallel channel, and probably mid way within the smaller pink parallel channel.

Within minor wave C minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement above 552.32.

When there is some downwards movement for minute wave v then the invalidation point would no longer apply. Subsequent movement above 552.32 would confirm that minor wave C and so probably intermediate wave (4) would be over. At that stage I would expect about two weeks of upwards movement towards 600.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th November, 2013

Last analysis expected upwards movement from AAPL. Price has moved slightly higher, but mostly sideways.

The fourth wave that I expected was over in last analysis looks like it is continuing further sideways as a contracting triangle. It is nearly complete.

If the triangle remains valid then there would be a high probability that this wave count is correct. At that stage I would expect a sharp upwards thrust about $27 in length.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C upwards within a larger upwards correction for a cycle wave b zigzag.

Within primary wave C so far intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is an incomplete impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

I have redrawn the channel about intermediate wave (3) again this week using Elliott’s second channeling technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. As minor wave 4 finishes redraw the channel. I will expect minor wave 5 to end midway within this channel, or about the upper edge.

Minor wave 4 is an incomplete contracting triangle. The final e wave downwards needs to complete. Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). At 560 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1. I am aware that this target zone is rather large, and so as we get closer to the end I will try to narrow it down when I can add to it at a third wave degree.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This hourly chart shows all of the structure of minor wave 4. For the triangle to remain valid any further upwards movement of minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b at 529.28, and the final wave down for minute wave e may not move below the end of minute wave c at 516.05.

If the triangle remains valid then the next wave upwards for minor wave 5 may travel a length about equal to the widest part of the triangle, which was $26.87.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Alternate 2013

Although the main wave count has a good overall look and fit, this alternate must be considered because the main wave count does not agree with MACD.

The strongest momentum should be within a third wave. This alternate looks at the possibility that intermediate waves (3) and (4) are over.

This alternate has a problem of proportion: intermediate wave (4) is much bigger in duration than intermediate wave (2) which gives this wave count the wrong look.

At 551 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3).

Apart from a differently calculated target this alternate does not diverge with the main wave count at this stage, and the expected direction is the same.

They will diverge in the future and at that stage I will use confirmation / invalidation points to determine which wave count is correct.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th November, 2013

Last analysis expected some more downwards movement towards a short term target calculated at 515 to 513.61. Downwards movement ended at 512.38, $1.23 below the lower end of the target zone.

Thereafter, price has turned higher and breached the parallel channel on the hourly chart.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C upwards within a larger upwards correction for a cycle wave b zigzag.

Within primary wave C so far intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is an incomplete impulse.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

I have redrawn the channel about intermediate wave (3) this week using Elliott’s second channeling technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minor waves 2 to 4, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minor wave 3. I will expect minor wave 5 to most likely end midway within this channel, and if it gets higher to find resistance at the upper edge.

At this stage it is most likely that minor wave 4 is complete. In the unlikely situation that it continued further as a double combination, flat or double zigzag, then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). At 560 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1. I am aware that this target zone is rather large, and so as we get closer to the end I will try to narrow it down when I can add to it at a third wave degree.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minor wave 4 is most likely complete now as a zigzag. Within it minute wave c is 1.24 longer than 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

The parallel channel about minor wave 4 zigzag is now clearly breached by upwards movement. This provides confidence that minor wave 4 should be over and minor wave 5 should be underway.

Minor wave 2 was a relatively shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. If minor wave 4 is over now then it too was a relatively shallow 41% zigzag correction of minor wave 3. Within minor wave 2 minute waves a and c are very close to equality; within minor wave 4 minute waves a and c have a 0.618 Fibonacci relationship. There is no alternation in depth of correction or structure, but there is alternation within the structures.

If this wave count is correct this week at the hourly chart level then I would expect to see an increase in upwards momentum from AAPL over the next few days.

Within minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 512.38.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th November, 2013

Last analysis expected downwards and sideways movement on the hourly chart for a fourth wave correction which is what has happened.

The wave count remains the same. I can now calculate a target for this fourth wave to end.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2013

A large zigzag structure for a fourth wave correction at supercycle degree may be unfolding.

Within the zigzag cycle wave a is a complete impulse. Within cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within the larger zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of cycle wave b.

Within primary wave B there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Within intermediate wave (2) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 has breached the parallel channel about intermediate wave (3) drawn using Elliott’s first technique. Sometimes fourth waves do this. When they do the channel should be redrawn when they have ended. I will be able to do this next week for you.

Minor wave 4 is incomplete and should move a little lower. When it is complete minor wave 5 should make new highs and move toward the target at 572.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (3) is completed I will add to this target calculation at minor wave degree, so it may change or widen to a small zone.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The hourly chart this week shows the structure of minor wave 4. It is unfolding as a zigzag.

Although minute wave a within it looks like a three wave structure on the hourly chart it has an impulsive wave count on the five minute chart. The fourth and second waves within it are out of proportion.

Minute wave b was a sideways moving zigzag.

Minute wave c is unfolding as an impulse. The final fifth wave down is required to complete the structure. This should be over within 24 hours.

At 513.61 minute wave c would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave a. At 515 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

I favour the lower end of this small target zone because it would avoid a truncation. It is most likely that minute wave c will end below the end of minute wave a at 514.54.

This would see minor wave 4 end just slightly below the 0.382 Fibonacci of minor wave 3.

I would expect minute wave c to end midway within the downward sloping channel drawn about minor wave 4. When this channel is clearly breached by subsequent upward movement then I would have confidence that minor wave 4 is over and minor wave 5 upwards is underway.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th October, 2013

Last analysis on 23rd October, 2013 expected more upwards movement to a target at 552. Price moved higher to reach 539.25, $12.75 short of the target.

Minor wave 3 is now over and minor wave 4 is underway.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2013

A large zigzag structure for a fourth wave correction at supercycle degree may be unfolding.

Within the zigzag cycle wave a is a complete impulse. Within cycle wave a there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between primary waves 1, 3 and 5.

Cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag. Within the larger zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 705.07.

At 600 primary wave C would reach 2.618 the length of primary wave A.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The daily chart shows the structure of cycle wave b.

Within primary wave B there is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Within intermediate wave (1) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

Within intermediate wave (2) there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

The target for minor wave 3 to end was 552. It ended at 539.25 with no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.

At 572 intermediate wave (3) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1). When minor wave 4 within intermediate wave (3) is completed I will add to this target calculation at minor wave degree, so it may change or widen to a small zone.

AAPL Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Minor wave 3 has completed a typical looking impulse.

Ratios within minor wave 3 are: minute wave v is 1.35 short of equality with minute wave i, and there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute wave iii and either of i or v.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.55 short of 0.618 the length of minuett e wave (iii).

Minor wave 2 was a shallow 44% zigzag correction of minor wave 1. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect minor wave 4 to be more likely to be deep, and it may unfold as a flat, double, combination or triangle.

Minor wave 4 may also find support at the lower edge of the channel drawn here. This channel is drawn from the highs of minor waves 1 to 3, with a parallel copy placed upon the low of minor wave 2.

If price breaks through support at the lower trend line then I would expect downwards movement to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3, at about 500.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 496.91.