Google Technical Analysis – 5th May, 2015

I noticed this trend line on Google. I call it Google’s “forever trend line”:

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th August, 2014

The wave count was invalidated with a new high above 100.72.

Click on charts to enlarge.

The bigger picture sees AAPL still within a third wave at primary degree, within a third wave at cycle degree, within a third wave at super cycle degree.

Within primary wave 3 I would expect to see some alternation between intermediate waves (2) and (4), and I would also expect to see them somewhat in proportion to each other so that the wave count has the right look. However, the recent invalidation shows me that AAPL does not have typical looking Elliott wave structures.

I have drawn a channel about primary wave 3 using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (2). I would expect intermediate wave (4) to find support at the lower edge of that channel.

I expect that AAPL is still within a correction for intermediate wave (4) which is unfolding as a flat or triangle. Intermediate wave (4) may find support, and may end, at the lower edge of the Elliott channel drawn here.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) is a zigzag, with no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C within it. Minor wave C is clearly longer than minor wave A.

If intermediate wave (4) unfolds as a flat, triangle or combination it will show nice structural alternation with intermediate wave (2).

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 82% correction. At this stage intermediate wave (4) is showing alternation in depth of correction by being very shallow, and should continue to be. The lowest I would expect it to go may be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3) at 43.48, but because of its shallowness it looks like it may not reach that low.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 28.99.

The reason for the invalidation of the last wave count for AAPL was my analysis of the prior downwards wave labeled minor wave A as a five wave impulse. That downwards movement looks so much like a five, it fits so well as a five, but it clearly is not. A new high above its start invalidated the idea that movement was a five wave impulse.

I do not have confidence in this wave count and I will not have confidence in it until the lower edge of the pink channel is clearly breached.

This wave count expects that intermediate wave (4) will continue as a regular or expanded flat correction. Minor wave B could most certainly move higher before minor wave C starts.

When we know where minor wave B has ended then we will know what type of correction intermediate wave (4) may be (an expanded or regular flat), and I can calculate a target for minor wave C downwards. I am not prepared to do that until I have trend channel confirmation that minor wave B has ended.

If intermediate wave (4) is to be a flat correction then minor wave C may move at least slightly below the end of minor wave A at 55.01 to avoid a truncation.

If intermediate wave (4) is to be a triangle or combination then the next downwards wave may not make a new low below 55.01.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th July, 2014

It’s make or break time for my wave Elliott wave count with AAPL. Any movement above 100.72 would invalidate the wave count and indicate AAPL is in a new upwards trend.

I expect to see downwards movement from AAPL from this point. The long term target is 53.53 which may be seven months away.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I expect that AAPL is within a correction for intermediate wave (4) which is unfolding as a zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may find support, and may end, at the lower edge of the Elliott channel drawn here.

Intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (2) is a zigzag, with no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C within it. Minor wave C is clearly longer than minor wave A.

I would have expected intermediate wave (4) to most likely exhibit better alternation with intermediate wave (2) and not be a zigzag, but so far minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) looks like a clear five wave impulse. We may see alternation between these structures in the length of their A and C waves. I have seen this happen before, albeit rarely.

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave C may be close to equality in length with minor wave A.

Intermediate wave (2) was a deep 82% correction. At this stage intermediate wave (4) is showing alternation in depth of correction by being very shallow, and should continue to be. The lowest I would expect it to go may be the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3) at 43.48, but because of its shallowness it looks like it may not reach that low.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 28.99.

Minor wave B has almost no room left for movement. It may not move beyond the start of minor wave A above 100.72.

This wave count relies upon my analysis of minor wave A downwards as a five wave impulse.

Within minor wave A there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v. Minute wave iii is shorter than minute wave i, and minute wave v is the shortest.

Within minute wave iii there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v). This is not actually unusual for AAPL; I have found it to only rarely exhibit nice Fibonacci ratios which does make target calculation more difficult.

Minor wave B is seen as a double zigzag. The second zigzag is now complete.

The aqua blue trend channel is a best fit. When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then I shall have full confidence in the target at 53.53, or at least that the direction is down and extremely likely to make a new low below 55.01. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new low below minor wave A to avoid a truncation.

The daily chart focusses on the structure of the final wave up within minor wave B: minuette wave (c) of the second zigzag.

The small orange channel is drawn using Elliott’s technique about minuette wave (c): draw the first trend line from the ends of subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the end of subminuette wave ii. Only when this channel is very clearly breached with a full daily candlestick below it and not touching the lower trend line will I have confidence in this trend change. While price remains within this channel we may yet see more upwards movement.

At 53.53 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave A lasted seven months, so minor wave C may be about an even duration.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th July, 2014

Click on charts to enlarge.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st July, 2014

A stock split a couple of weeks ago made my data look… horribly wrong. This has now been fixed.

The wave count at cycle degree has changed and I have a new wave count for you.

Click on charts to enlarge.

I am not sure about the degree of labeling in this wave count. Although it seems too brief for grand super cycle waves I and II to last 1/4 and 19 years, respectively, when the degree is moved down by one then the more recent movement is too low a degree.

I see a series of first and second waves with an unfolding third wave upwards incomplete.

Within cycle wave III intermediate wave (3) is just 2.88 short of 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (4) is most likely incomplete. It may end at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn about primary wave 3 using Elliott’s technique.

The weekly chart shows recent movement within intermediate wave (4).

The wave down labeled minor wave A subdivides so well as a five wave impulse that intermediate wave (4) is unlikely to be over and should continue.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A at 100.72.

Within minor wave B the structure fits as a double zigzag, with the second zigzag almost complete.

Within minuette wave (c) at 97.16 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

The channel about minuette wave (c) is drawn using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line is drawn from the ends of subminuette waves ii to iv, then a parallel copy is placed on the end of subminuette wave iii. I would expect subminuette wave v to end mid way within this channel.

When the channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement I would have confidence that minuette wave (c) is over.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2014

Upwards movement continued as wave count expected.

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Because the downwards wave labeled here cycle wave a subdivides so well as a five wave impulse, with an extended third wave, the correction cannot be over there.

This means that upwards movement from the low at 385.10 should subdivide as a corrective structure and may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 705.07.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double zigzag. The channel drawn about it is a best fit. When this maroon channel is clearly breached by downwards movement I shall have confidence that cycle wave b is over and cycle wave c downwards is underway.

Cycle wave c would be extremely likely to make a new low beyond the end of cycle wave a at 385.10 to avoid a truncation.

Cycle wave b is incomplete. Within it intermediate wave (C) is unfolding as an impulse.

Because momentum has slightly increased from the low of minor wave 2 I expect that this is most likely minor wave 3. At 673 minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 may remain within the blue channel.

When minor wave 3 is completed then minor wave 4 should last about three to eight days. It may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 604.41.

Intermediate wave (C) has already passed equality in length with intermediate wave (A). They may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to each other.

When minor wave 4 is completed I would use the ratio between minor wave 5 and either of 1 or 3 to calculate a final target for upwards movement to end.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May 2014

Upwards movement continued as wave count expected.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Because the downwards wave labeled here cycle wave a subdivides so well as a five wave impulse, with an extended third wave, the correction cannot be over there.

This means that upwards movement from the low at 385.10 should subdivide as a corrective structure and may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 705.07.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double zigzag. The channel drawn about it is a best fit. When this maroon channel is clearly breached by downwards movement I shall have confidence that cycle wave b is over and cycle wave c downwards is underway.

Cycle wave c would be extremely likely to make a new low beyond the end of cycle wave a at 385.10 to avoid a truncation.

Cycle wave b is incomplete. Within it intermediate wave (C) is unfolding as an impulse, and minor wave 4 has recently completed.

At 627 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1 I will expect to see a Fibonacci ratio for minor wave 5.

Within minute wave iii of minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 585.40.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2014

Yesterday’s analysis of AAPL was invalidated by upwards movement. I have a new wave count for you.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be continuing as a double zigzag. The second structure in the double is incomplete. At 638.97 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality with intermediate wave (A).

Within intermediate wave (C) minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 532.14.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2014

Within the bigger picture this wave count sees AAPL in a super cycle zigzag correction which is just over two thirds completed.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Within the zigzag cycle wave b ended at 571.88 with a small truncation in the final fifth wave up.

At this stage I expect a big leading expanding diagonal is unfolding for a first wave at primary degree.

Within the leading diagonal intermediate wave (2) is a 72% correction of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (4) is a 86% correction of intermediate wave (3).

I would expect intermediate wave (5) to be longer than intermediate wave (3) and to reach down to 484.54 or below. At 456 minor wave C within intermediate wave (5) would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave A.

Downwards movement is very slow and so the target may be yet another few weeks away.

Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 551.19.

At 252 cycle wave c would reach equality in length with cycle wave a. This target is about one year away.

Within intermediate wave (5) so far minor waves A and B are most likely complete.

Within minor wave C minute wave i and now ii also are most likely complete.

At 480 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

The pink channel drawn about minute waves i and ii is a base channel. I would expect corrections along the way down to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel. Minute wave iii should breach the lower edge of the channel and should show an increase in downwards momentum.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 532.14.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th March, 2014

Last analysis of AAPL on 4th March, expected more downwards movement in a three wave structure. Price has moved sideways. This is wave B of the three wave structure.

Within the bigger picture this wave count sees AAPL in a super cycle zigzag correction which is just over two thirds completed.

Within the zigzag cycle wave b ended at 571.88 with a small truncation in the final fifth wave up.

At this stage I expect a big leading expanding diagonal is unfolding for a first wave at primary degree.

Within the leading diagonal intermediate wave (2) is a 72% correction of intermediate wave (1), and intermediate wave (4) is a 86% correction of intermediate wave (3).

I would expect intermediate wave (5) to be longer than intermediate wave (3) and to reach down to 484.54 or below. At 482 minor wave C within intermediate wave (5) would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A.

I had expected (two weeks ago) this target should be met in about three weeks. Downwards movement is very slow and so the target may be yet another few weeks away.

Within intermediate wave (5) no second wave nor B wave may move beyond the start of the first or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 551.19.

At 252 cycle wave c would reach equality in length with cycle wave a. This target is about one year away.

Within intermediate wave (5) so far minor waves A and B are most likely complete.

Within minor wave C minute wave i and now ii also are most likely complete. If minute wave ii moves higher it may not move beyond the start of wave i above 539.66.

At 505 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

When the small green parallel channel about minute wave ii is clearly breached with downwards movement then I would have confidence that minute wave iii has begun.