Category Archives: FTSE

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th August, 2016

Charts only this week.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th August, 2016

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th June, 2016

Charts only this week for members only.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th June, 2016

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th May, 2016

FTSE breached the channel confirming a trend change. Thereafter, it continued lower as expected.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th May, 2016

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th May, 2016

FTSE breached the channel confirming a trend change. Thereafter, it continued lower as expected.

Summary: FTSE may have just begun a second wave correction. It may end in a few days about 6,279. But look out for surprises to the downside because it is possible it may end more quickly. The target remains at 3,796.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FTSE monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

At the monthly chart level, FTSE is the clearest bear market.

The cyan trend line is drawn across the two major swing lows in the bull market which began on March 2009. This bull market trend line has been breached by a close well over 3% of market value, indicating a trend change from bull to bear.

The 200 day moving average is now declining (shown on the technical analysis daily chart at the end of analysis). Price has made a series of lower lows and lower highs. FTSE is in a bear market until proven otherwise.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the downwards movement labelled intermediate wave (1) to the low in February 2016 has well overlapped back into the high labelled primary wave A of February 2011. This downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within an impulse unfolding upwards. So the prior wave up labelled cycle wave X or b must be over and it must be a three wave structure.

The cyan bull market trend line has provided resistance.

Super Cycle wave (II) is seen as either a large flat correction, a double flat or a double combination.

If Super Cycle wave (II) is a large flat, then within it cycle wave a was a regular flat and cycle wave b was a zigzag and 1.05 the length of cycle wave a. The length of cycle wave b indicates the most common type of flat, an expanded flat, may be unfolding. Cycle wave c downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure. Cycle wave c would be expected to end substantially below the end of cycle wave a at 3,460. At 1,477 cycle wave c would reach 1.618 the length of cycle wave a.

If Super Cycle wave (II) is a double flat, then the first flat in the double was a regular flat labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled cycle wave x. Now a second flat correction should unfold sideways for cycle wave y. Cycle wave y would look similar to cycle wave w, with two large market crashes within it. It should end about the same level as cycle wave w at 3,460, so that the whole movement is a sideways structure.

If Super Cycle wave (II) is a double combination, then the second structure in the double for cycle wave y may be either a zigzag or a triangle. Either of these should reach down only to about the same level as cycle wave w at 3,460, so that the whole structure has a sideways look to it.

Of all these three options the simple expanded flat labelled cycle waves a-b-c is the most likely because expanded flats are very common structures.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (1) subdivides as an impulse. Intermediate wave (2) is subdividing as a zigzag. Only when the small blue channel about this zigzag is breached to the downside may confidence be had that it is over.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 7,122.7.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

A five down looks fairly clear for FTSE. This should be expected to be followed by a three up. Minor wave 2 would most likely end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. It may last a few more days.

However, technically it may also be over. It would be relatively brief and shallow though at only 0.342 of minor wave 1 and lasting only two days. It is possible it may be over but looks more likely it will continue higher.

The first target for intermediate wave (3) is at 3,796 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1). If price gets to the first target and the structure is incomplete, or if price keeps falling through the first target, then the second target would be used. At 2,172 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (3) must make a new low below the end of intermediate wave (1) at 5,499.51.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

FTSE daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Neither Google / Yahoo data feed nor StockCharts provide volume data for FTSE. Comments on volume are taken from Yahoo Finance data.

The rise in price for 10th May comes on lighter volume. The rise in price is not supported by volume. This supports the Elliott wave count.

At the low, the candlestick for 6th May completes a hammer. Now the 9th and 10th of May complete a bullish engulfing pattern. This indicates a trend change but does not indicate how high the next wave may go.

Price is finding some resistance at the 200 day moving average.

ADX is increasing indicating the market is trending downwards. ATR is still declining indicating a trend has not yet started, or that there is something wrong with this downwards trend so far.

RSI is neutral. There is room for price to rise or fall. There was slight divergence between RSI at the low of the 6th May and the low of 4th May. This indicates some upwards movement which is unfolding.

Stochastics is returning from oversold.

This analysis is published @ 04:02 a.m. EST on 11th May, 2016.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2016

FTSE moved higher as expected. Targets for it to end were about either 6,453 or 6,518. So far price has reached up to 6,421.98.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th April, 2016

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th April, 2016

FTSE has been moving higher as this Elliott wave count expected.

The questions today: Is upwards movement over? How will we know when there has been a trend change?

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th April, 2016

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st March, 2016

Charts only today.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (2) is still most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 6,453.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

FTSE daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis is published @ 09:16 p.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2016

Summary: FTSE remains in a bear market: lower highs, lower lows, 200 day moving average still pointing lower, and price below the bear market trend line.

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of intermediate wave (2) still needs at least one more small final wave up to complete a corrective count of seven.

Redraw the channel if minor wave B moves lower. After a new high a subsequent break below the lower edge of the channel would indicate a trend change.

Intermediate wave (2) is still most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 6,453.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

FTSE daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Comments on volume use data from Yahoo Finance as StockCharts do not provide volume data for FTSE.

Downwards days continue to be stronger than upwards days for FTSE. The volume profile is still more bearish than bullish.

As price moves essentially sideways, volume is overall slightly declining. Price may find some resistance at the 200 day moving average.

Price is range bound between the 200 day average and the red horizontal support line at 6,035. A breakout above or below on a day with increased volume is required before the next trend direction can be known for FTSE. Volume favours a downwards breakout which supports the Elliot wave count.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to rise.

This analysis is published @ 11:03 p.m. EST.

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th March, 2016

Charts only today.

Continue reading FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th March, 2016

FTSE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2016

Downwards movement was again expected for FTSE.

Although upwards movement remains below the invalidation point and is just at the trend line, this market is not behaving as expected. I have a new alternate wave count which should be seriously considered.

Summary: With upwards movement of 17th February on an increase in volume, this market is not behaving as expected. A new wave count is required. A new high above 6,115.10 would invalidate the main wave count and confirm the new alternate. At that stage, expect FTSE is most likely in a larger and deeper bear market rally which may end about 6,453.

To see a monthly chart and the bigger picture, with an explanation of why there are only bear wave counts for FTSE, click here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WEEKLY WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

From the all time high in April 2015, FTSE has a five down and a three up. This current fall should move well below the end of intermediate wave (1) at 5,768.22 and then remain below that point. Intermediate wave (3) must move beyond the end of intermediate wave (1), far enough below to allow room for a subsequent fourth wave which may not move back into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

Price has now made a new low below the August low at 5,768.22. Downwards movement should continue, if this wave count is correct.

The main difference between this main wave count and the new alternate is the correction labelled here minor wave 2 within intermediate wave (1). This main wave count sees that movement as a combination: flat – X – zigzag lasting 19 days. There is alternation between minor waves 2 and 4: minor 2 was a combination and minor 4 was a triangle. Minor wave 4 lasted 35 days.

MAIN DAILY WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

So far the middle of the third wave may not have passed for FTSE. Upwards movement labelled minuette wave (ii) is back in minute wave i price territory. This cannot be minute wave iv, so it may only be yet another second wave correction if this wave count is correct.

Intermediate wave (2) lasted 42 days. Minor wave 2 lasted 11 days. Minute wave ii lasted 9 days. Each subsequent second wave is shorter in duration than its predecessor giving the wave count the right look. None of these waves are exhibiting Fibonacci durations.

Minuette wave (ii) may have completed in a Fibonacci 8 days total, reaching a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. A lower degree second wave correction should not breach a base channel drawn about a first and second wave one or more degrees higher.

Within minuette wave (iii), yet another first and second wave may be completing for subminuette waves i and ii. Again, subminuette wave ii is in the price territory of the first wave one degree higher, so this upwards movement may not be minuette wave (iv). If this wave count is correct, then this may only be yet another second wave correction.

Subminuette wave ii has passed the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. The last daily candlestick has closed just above the base channel. If this wave count is correct, then upwards movement should stop here. Price should find resistance at the base channel.

So far the lower edge of the base channel is providing support. If price manages to break below this support line, then it would be confirming a big third wave should be underway.

The target for intermediate wave (3) remains the same at 4,296 where it would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

A shorter term target is calculated for minuette wave (iii). At 5,023 it would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

If targets are wrong, they may not be low enough.

Of all the indices I follow with Elliott wave counts, FTSE remains the clearest bear.

ALTERNATE WEEKLY WAVE COUNT

FTSE weekly 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The first movement after the all time high is seen differently for this alternate wave count. At the daily chart level, it does not have as good a fit which is why it will remain an alternate until confirmed by price.

If there are two corrections within there rather than just the one, now minute wave i does not subdivide perfectly as a five and looks like a three on the daily chart.

Now minor waves 2 and 4 are more grossly disproportionate.

This wave count sees the possibility of a five wave impulse over at the recent low, with minor wave 5 an ending expanding diagonal.

Intermediate wave (2) may continue for weeks and may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 6,453.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) above 7,122.70.

ALTERNATE DAILY WAVE COUNT

FTSE daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

If price moves above 6,115.10 and invalidates the main wave count, then this wave count would be confirmed.

The most likely target for intermediate wave (2) is the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 6,453.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

FTSE daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is no volume data on either the FXCM feed or StockCharts. Volume analysis is done from Yahoo Finance data.

Upwards movement for the 17th of February comes with an increase in volume. This is concerning for the main wave count and supports the alternate.

The stalled pattern, a bearish version of three white soldiers, is invalidated by the following long green candlestick.

ADX indicates the market is not trending, but it may be about to indicate a trend change: the -DX line is crossing below the +DX line.

ATR is increasing. This indicates the market is trending.

RSI is just above neutral. There is room for this market to rise or fall.

Stochastics is also just above neutral. There is room for the market to rise or fall.

This analysis is published @ 03:43 a.m. EST on 18th February, 2016.