Category Archives: EW Education

Expanded Flat Corrections – A Real Life Example | 1st September, 2017

I mentioned in comments on Thursday that I wanted to illustrate a real life example of an expanded flat. The concept is important when trading corrections.

S&P 500 daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

I did not have to go far back at all to find a good example of this very common corrective structure.

This expanded flat is in a second wave position within the final wave up of intermediate wave (5), which may have ended primary wave 3 at the last all time high.

Within expanded flats, both waves A and B must be three wave structures. Wave B is a minimum 1.05 length of wave A, so it makes a new price extreme beyond the start of wave A.

There is unfortunately no rule stating a maximum length for B waves within flats. There is a convention within Elliott wave that states when the possible B wave is longer than twice the length of the possible A wave the idea of an expanded flat should be discarded based upon a very low probability. I have seen a few expanded flats though which in hindsight were correct that had B waves that were longer than twice the length of their A waves.

The longer wave B is in relation to wave A the longer wave C should be expected to be. Here, wave C has a good Fibonacci ratio to wave A. Wave C of an expanded flat should move substantially beyond the end of wave A. The whole structure has an expanding sideways look to it.

Expanded flats are very common (only zigzags would be more common). It is my judgement given nine years of professional daily Elliott wave analysis that expanded flats are the second equal most common corrective structures alongside combinations.

What technical signals may give an expanded flat away? The answer lies in the strength, or lack of it, in wave B.

S&P 500 daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Within wave B, some weakness can be noticed from:

– Very slight divergence at the end of wave B between price and RSI.

– Strongly declining ATR.

– Strong divergence at the end of wave B between price and Stochastics, after Stochastics has reached extreme.

– Declining volume.

Published @ 03:13 a.m. EST on 2nd September, 2017.

Volume and Breakouts – Is it Necessary? | 11th August, 2017

This chart was published two days ago. At that time, it was warned that the possible upwards breakout of the 8th of August lacked support from volume and may turn out to be false:

S&P500 Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

That was proven correct. The strong downwards movement from the S&P comes on a day with an increase in volume. This is a classic downwards breakout.

When a downwards breakout has support from volume, that adds confidence in it. Downwards breakouts do not require support from volume; the market may fall of its own weight. Price can fall due to an absence of buyers as easily as it can from an increase in activity of sellers. But when volume supports downwards movement, it may be more sustainable, at least for the short term.

This downwards breakout was predicted by strongest volume during the consolidation being a downwards day.

This volume analysis technique looks at the presence or absence of support from volume on the breakout after a consolidation period to tells us how reliable the breakout may be.

Original post published @ 12:17 a.m. EST on 12th August, 2017, on Elliott Wave Gold.

Volume and Breakouts – Is it Necessary? | 9th August, 2017

After a consolidation price will break out. The presence or absence of support from volume on the breakout tells us how reliable the breakout may be.

Gold Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Pennant patterns are one of the most reliable continuation patterns. But in an upwards trend the breakout should have support from volume.

For price to keep rising it requires increased activity of buyers. Upwards breakouts that do not have support from volume are suspicious.

This upwards breakout comes on a day with slightly higher volume, but the balance of volume for the session is downwards. Stronger volume during the session supported downwards movement, not upwards.

The breakout is suspicious and may turn out to be false.

While volume is important for upwards breakouts, it is not so important for downwards breakouts. The market may fall of its own weight.

Original post published @ 04:47 p.m. EST on Elliott Wave Gold.

Non Farm Payroll – What Direction for the S&P500? | 3rd August, 2017

A simple classic technical analysis pattern may answer the question of what direction to expect tomorrow from the S&P500 upon release of Non Farm Payroll data. This release is expected to move markets strongly:.

Gold Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Pennants are reliable continuation patterns. The pattern is supported if volume declines as the pattern forms. Pennants normally appear about halfway within a trend.

The measured rule takes the flag pole which precedes the pattern and adds that length to the expected breakout of the pattern.

If this pattern is correct, then tomorrow may see an upwards breakout to new all time highs for the S&P500.

Original post published @ 06:28 a.m. EST on Elliott Wave Gold.