Category Archives: US Oil

Weekly Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of S&P500 and Gold and US Oil – 9th March, 2018

Lara’s Weekly is an end of week Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of the S&P 500, GOLD, and USOIL that focuses on the mid-to-long-term picture. This analysis service is designed for investors and swing traders.

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This analysis was previously posted on Elliott Wave Gold.

Weekly Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of S&P500 and Gold and US Oil – 23rd February, 2018

Lara’s Weekly is an end of week Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of the S&P 500, GOLD, and USOIL that focuses on the mid-to-long-term picture.

Lara’s Weekly is at this time available to the general public, but in the near future it will be available by subscription only. To be notified via e-mail when subscriptions to Lara’s Weekly will begin click the Notify Me button below:


To download Lara’s Weekly as a PDF document, click here.

This analysis was previously posted on Elliott Wave Gold.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis of US Oil expected some more upwards movement to end just above 108.76 but not above 108.92. Price moved higher and turned at 108.17, just 0.59 short of the target.

This week I expect an increase in downwards momentum for Oil.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (ii) completed as a rare running flat; subminuette wave c is slightly (0.59 cents) truncated. The subdivisions all fit perfectly, particularly the most important check, that of subminuette wave b as a three wave structure. It is very difficult to see this movement as a five.

Subminuette wave c ended almost right on the upper edge of the parallel channel containing this running flat of minuette wave (ii).

Within the running flat of minuette wave (ii) subminuette wave c is 0.15 short of equality with subminuette wave a.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.28 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

Micro wave 5 subdivides into an imperfect ending contracting diagonal, imperfect because the third wave within it is the longest. All the subwaves correctly subdivide into single zigzags.

If this wave count is correct we should see some increase in downwards momentum over the next week.

At 98.07 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). If price keeps falling through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure is incomplete, then the next target is at 91.83 where minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.17.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected downwards movement to a short term target at 98.66 or 92.42. Price did move lower to make a new low at 102.24 but then turned back upwards. Price remains below the invalidation point on the daily chart and the wave count remains valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

I have reanalysed the upwards movement labeled now subminuette wave a within minuette wave (ii) as a double zigzag. The previous analysis of a single zigzag here did not look right, with a very short A wave and a very long C wave with no Fibonacci ratio between them.

The downwards movement labeled here submineutte wave b fits best as a three wave zigzag. I cannot see a five wave structure in here. This is an indication that minuette wave (ii) may not be over and may be continuing as a flat correction. Within it subminuette wave c is an incomplete five wave impulse.

If subminuette wave c fails to end at or above 108.76 then the structure will be a running flat. It is likely that subminuette wave c will end a little above 108.76, or very close to it. There is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves 3 and 1, with micro wave 3 longer by 0.60.

There is another possibility that minuette wave (ii) was over as a double zigzag at the high labeled subminuette wave a at 108.76, and movement from this point is a first and second wave of a leading diagonal for the start of minuette wave (iii). The expected direction and invalidation point is the same (I will not chart this option this week).

When we see price move below 104.35 then downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within subminuette wave c and so subminuette wave c and minuette wave (ii) must be over. At that stage I would expect that a third wave downwards is unfolding.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected downwards movement for the week, with a second wave correction to come. The first wave was already over and the second wave unfolded as a very deep zigzag, ending just below the invalidation point on the daily chart. The hourly chart was invalidated.

The wave count remains mostly the same this week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Within a cycle degree c wave downwards primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete, with the start of intermediate wave (3) at 108.92.

There is a clear evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change here.

At 55.09 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Within intermediate wave (3) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The low at 102.68 was the end of a five wave impulse.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.20 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 0.11 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.11 short of equality with micro wave 1.

A parallel channel drawn about minuette wave (i) using Elliott’s first technique perfectly shows where subminuette wave iv found resistance. This impulse is textbook perfect. I wish I had seen it last week!

Minuette wave (ii) is a very deep sharp zigzag. Because there is no further room left for upwards movement if this wave count is correct then minuette wave (iii) must begin here. We should see an increase in downwards momentum over the next week for US Oil.

Minuette wave (ii) subdivides as a deep sharp zigzag with subminuette wave b an expanding triangle. There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

Ratios within subminuette wave c of minuette wave (ii) zigzag are: micro wave 3 is 0.04 short of equality with micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.02 longer than 0.382 the length of micro wave 1.

At 98.66 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Because minuette wave (ii) was so deep it is also fairly likely that minuette wave (iii) may reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i) at 92.42. If price keeps dropping through the first target then the second target is the next likely end.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2013

Oil has moved higher as expected for the week, remaining just below the invalidation point. If price breaks above 110.56 in the next one to few weeks this wave count will change significantly. I will briefly cover the alternate for this scenario today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (2) is most likely now a complete zigzag. There is a nice evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A.

Ratios within minor wave C are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is just 0.06 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave i.

When the wide parallel channel containing intermediate wave (2) is breached then we shall have trend channel confirmation of this trend change.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The structure within intermediate wave (2) may again be considered complete. Price did not move lower as expected to complete minute wave iv last week, it moved sideways to complete a triangle. Within the triangle on the five minute chart minuette wave (e) itself subdivides nicely into a contracting triangle.

There is perfect alternation between minute waves ii and iv; minute wave ii was a deep sharp zigzag, minute wave iv is a time consuming sideways moving shallow triangle.

The channel drawn about the impulse of minor wave C is now very clearly breached indicating intermediate wave (2) is probably over and intermediate wave (3) has likely just begun.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.01 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is exactly 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). With these remarkably good Fibonacci ratios I am confident this labeling of minute wave iv triangle and minute wave v impulse is correct.

Within the new downwards movement we do not have a clear five down. This movement so far does not subdivide into a leading diagonal because the first wave down labeled subminuette wave i itself subdivides into a diagonal on the five minute chart.

Within subminuette wave iii if micro wave 2 were to move higher it may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 108.58.

Alternate Monthly Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly Alternate 2013

If price moves above 110.56 in the next week this is the wave count I would use.

It is possible that cycle wave b is not over and is completing a double zigzag, with primary wave X within it a contracting triangle.

The triangle of primary wave X does fit, in that all the waves within it can be seen as threes, but it does not have a very typical look for a contracting triangle. The overshoot of the B-D trend line within intermediate wave (E) looks strange. For this reason I would judge this wave count to have a low probability. I would only consider it seriously if it was confirmed with price movement above 110.56.

If this wave count is confirmed we should expect a continuation of upwards movement from oil for some months yet. There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles, and so a target for primary wave Y to end could only be calculated when intermediate waves (A) and (B) within it are complete.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th July, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement to a short term target at 105.57 to 105.60. Price has reached up to 107.46, 1.86 above the small target zone, before turning lower and breaching the small parallel channel drawn on last week’s hourly chart indicating a short term trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete zigzag. Within it minor wave B was a triangle and minor wave C is unfolding as an impulse which is incomplete.

Within the impulse of minor wave C minute waves i, ii and now iii are complete. Minute wave ii was a very deep 82% zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation I will expect minute wave iv to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i. I will expect to see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.

We may now use Elliott’s channeling technique to draw a channel about minor wave C. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves i to iii, place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave ii. Expect minute wave iv to find support at the lower edge of this channel.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 110.56.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave iv looks incomplete so far. It looks like it is unfolding as a shallow regular flat correction.

Within minute wave iv minuette wave (a) subdivides nicely as a zigzag. Minuette wave (b) is a complete double zigzag and is a 91% correction of minuette wave (a) meeting the mininum requirement of 90% for a flat and indicating a regular flat may be unfolding.

This wave count expects a five wave structure downwards to complete for minuette wave (c) which may find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel containing minute wave iv. This may end about the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 103.72.

At 104.03 minuette wave (c) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (a).

This gives us a small 0.31 cent target zone for the end of a little more downwards movement.

If minuette wave (c) continues lower through this target zone and below the small parallel channel containing the flat correction of minute wave iv then expect downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn on the daily chart.

When minute wave iv is complete then we should expect more upwards movement most likely to new highs above 107.38 as the final fifth wave upwards completes.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th July, 2013

Last week’s analysis published charts only.

Last week I expected the structure for a third wave upwards was incomplete. The short term target on the hourly chart was 105.52. Price has reached up so far to 0.76 short of the target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart follows on directly from last week’s analysis.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete zigzag. Within it minor wave B was a triangle and minor wave C is unfolding as an impulse which is incomplete.

Within the impulse of minor wave C minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave ii was a very deep 82% zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation I will expect minute wave iv to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

At 105.57 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. About this point I would expect upwards movement to stall for between three and five days. Minute wave iv should move price sideways. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 110.56.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart shows the entire structure within minute wave iii.

Within minute wave iii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii). At 105.60 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (iii). This gives us a 3 cent target zone for a little more upwards movement.

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.60 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette wave waves i or iii.

When minute wave iii is complete we should expect a short term trend change and some sideways movement for minute wave iv. Minute wave iv should breach the small best fit parallel channel containing minute wave iii, and this will be confirmation it has begun.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.