Category Archives: US Oil

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2013

Last analysis had two wave counts. They both remain valid.

Price has remained below the invalidation point at 100.43.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is complete and minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double zigzag. Within the double zigzag structure of minor wave 2 the first zigzag labeled minute wave w is complete, as is the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x. Within minute wave y zigzag minuette wave (a) subdivides into a five wave impulse. Minuette wave (b) may be completing a triangle.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minuette wave (b) this structure may be a triangle yet to complete.

Each subwave so far subdivides into a zigzag. Only the final wave downwards, subminuette wave e, needs to complete.

The triangle is a running contracting triangle. Within a contracting triangle subminuette wave e may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave c. The triangle is invalidated with movement below 92.21.

Further downwards movement would be expected for subminuette wave e to end about 92.77.

Thereafter price should turn upwards to make a new high above 97.14 for minuette wave (c) to move beyond the end of minuette wave (a) to avoid a truncation.

Minuette wave (c) may be about 7.11 in length if it is 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

Movement below 92.21 prior to the completion of minor wave 2 would indicate the alternate wave count below may be correct.

Alternate Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 may both be complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i may be unfolding as a leading diagonal. Within the leading diagonal minuette waves (ii) and (iv) must subdivide into zigzags, and minuette waves (i), (iii), and (v) are usually zigzags but may also subdivide as impulses. Second and fourth waves of diagonals are usually deep corrections, between 66% to 81%. Minuette wave (ii) is deeper at 94% and minuette wave (iv) is now 97%.

If price does not move above 97.73 this alternate would remain valid.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May, 2013

This deeper than expected upwards movement has indicated the prior wave count may be incorrect, although the daily chart remained valid.

I have taken another look at the bigger picture. I expect this upwards movement may be part of a larger second wave correction.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is complete and minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double zigzag. At 99.25 minuette wave (c) within the second zigzag of minute wave y would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave 2 the hourly chart above shows the end of the second zigzag, minute wave y. Within minute wave y minuette wave (c) is an incomplete structure.

Within minuette wave (c) the fifth wave of subminuette wave v may be unfolding as an ending expanding diagonal.

Within minuette wave (c) subminuette wave iii is just 0.03 longer than equality with subminuette wave i. It would not expect to see a Fibonacci ratio between subminuette wave v and either of i or iii. I will leave the target calculation at minuette wave degree.

This wave count requires one final upwards wave which would be most likely to be longer than 2.34.

When that is complete this wave count expects a trend change and the start of a third wave downwards at minor wave degree.

A clear breach of the parallel channel about the second zigzag of minute wave y would be an early indication of the start of a third wave down. Movement below 92.14 would provide price confirmation of a trend change. This change should come within the next two days or so.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

Alternate Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

This was previously my main wave count. The depth of minuette waves (ii) and (iv) within this possible leading diagonal reduce the probability of this wave count.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 may both be complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i may be unfolding as a leading diagonal. Within the leading diagonal minuette waves (ii) and (iv) must subdivide into zigzags, and minuette waves (i), (iii), and (v) are usually zigzags but may also subdivide as impulses. Second and fourth waves of diagonals are usually deep corrections, between 66% to 81%. Minuette wave (ii) is deeper at 94% and minuette wave (iv) is now 97%.

If price does not move above 97.73 this alternate would remain valid.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th May, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected oil to move lower which is what has happened. The channel about the last upwards wave on the daily chart is now breached providing trend channel confirmation of a trend change back to the downside for oil.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i may be unfolding as a leading diagonal. Within the leading diagonal minuette waves (ii) and (iv) must subdivide into zigzags, and minuette waves (i), (iii), and (v) are usually zigzags but may also subdivide as impulses. Second and fourth waves of diagonals are usually deep corrections, between 66% to 81%. Minuette wave (ii) is deeper at 94% and minuette wave (iv) is now 95%.

We now have a clear breach of the parallel channel containing the zigzag of minuette wave (iv) indicating this correction is over and the next wave down has begun.

Within the leading diagonal minuette wave (v) may not be truncated, it must move below 85.64.

The diagonal is expanding. We should expect minuette wave (v) to be longer than minuette wave (iii), to move below 85.05. However, I have seen diagonals where the third wave is still the longest, so this may not happen.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (iv) using Elliott’s channeling technique. Draw the first trend line from the start of minuette wave (iv) to the low of subminuette wave b within it, then place a parallel copy upon the high of subminuette wave a within minuette wave (iv). We have seen this parallel channel clearly breached by downwards movement and now have confidence the correction is over and a fifth wave down has begun.

Minuette wave (iv) of the diagonal should overlap into minuette wave (i) price territory, but may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (ii) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Since last analysis price has moved lower. The channel breach indicates a new wave down has begun which must subdivide into either a zigzag or an impulse. If it subdivides into a zigzag (most likely) then subminuette wave a within it must subdivide into a five wave structure, either a leading diagonal or an impulse.

I have considered various possibilities for movement downwards from the high at 97.14 labeled minuette wave (iv). The key seems to be the upwards movement labeled submicro wave (A) within micro wave 4. On the five minute chart this movement subdivides perfectly as a five wave impulse and it is not possible to see it as a zigzag. The correction cannot have ended there and so must move higher.

Within micro wave 4 submicro wave (B) subdivides nicely into a double zigzag. If this structure moves any lower, or continues further sideways, it may not move beyond the start of submicro wave (A) within the zigzag. This wave count is invalidated in the short term (prior to a five up for submicro wave (C) being complete) with movement below 93.36.

Submicro wave (C) must subdivide into a five wave structure to complete the zigzag for micro wave 4. Submicro wave (C) is very likely to end above the end of submicro wave (A) to avoid a truncation above 96.22.

Within the diagonal micro wave 4 should overlap into micro wave 1 price territory, but may not move beyond the end of micro wave 2. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 96.76.

The other possibility which may be unfolding to the downside would be an impulse. It too would require the completion of a zigzag with subdivisions labeled essentially the same as micro wave 4 here. The short term outlook would be the same.

When the zigzag of micro wave 4 is completed, if this wave count remains valid, then we should expect a fifth wave downwards which must make a new low below the end of micro wave 3 at 93.36 because the fifth wave of a leading diagonal may not be truncated.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th May, 2013

Last analysis expected to see downwards movement after the channel drawn on the hourly chart was breached. The channel was breached, but thereafter price moved to a new high as a fourth wave correction continued deeper.

This week the structure of this fourth wave is much clearer and a channel drawn around it shows nicely where price has found support and resistance. The last two days of downwards movement may be the start of the next wave down.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i may be unfolding as a leading diagonal. Within the leading diagonal minuette waves (ii) and (iv) must subdivide into zigzags, and minuette waves (i), (iii), and (v) are usually zigzags but may also subdivide as impulses. Second and fourth waves of diagonals are usually deep corrections, between 66% to 81%. Minuette wave (ii) is deeper at 94% and minuette wave (iv) is now 95%.

Within the leading diagonal minuette wave (v) may not be truncated, it must move below 85.64.

The diagonal is expanding. We should expect minuette wave (v) to be longer than minuette wave (iii) so to move below 85.05. However, I have seen diagonals where the third wave is still the longest, so this may not happen.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (iv) using Elliott’s channeling technique. Draw the first trend line from the start of minuette wave (iv) to the low of subminuette wave b within it, then place a parallel copy upon the high of subminuette wave a within minuette wave (iv). We need to see this parallel channel clearly breached by downwards movement before we may have confidence the correction is over and a fifth wave down has begun.

Minuette wave (iv) of the diagonal should overlap into minuette wave (i) price territory, but may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (ii) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

The hourly chart shows the structure within subminuette wave c of minuette wave (iv).

There is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves a and c.

Ratios within subminuette wave c are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.03 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) is 0.18 short of 2.618 the length of submicro wave (3), and submicro wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of submicro waves (1) or (3).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) of micro wave 3 are: nano wave 3 is 0.03 short of 2.618 the length of nano wave 1, and nano wave 5 is 0.07 longer than 1.618 the length of nano wave 1 and 0.09 longer than 0.618 the length of nano wave 3.

Within submicro wave (5) of micro wave 3 there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between nano waves 1, 3 and 5.

Price remains well within the parallel channel containing minuette wave (iv) zigzag and so we have no confirmation at this stage that the correction is over and minuette wave (v) downwards is underway. Until there is trend channel confirmation of this change I will allow for further upwards movement for minuette wave (iv) and so will leave the invalidation point at 97.73.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th April, 2013

Further strong upwards movement invalidated the main wave count. This upwards movement cannot be a fourth wave of an impulse because it has entered first wave price territory. It must be a second wave correction, or the structure is a diagonal and not an impulse.

The wave count is changed and makes sense of these last two deep corrections.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave i may be unfolding as a leading diagonal. Within the leading diagonal minuette waves (ii) and (iv) must subdivide into zigzags, and minuette waves (i), (iii), and (v) are usually zigzags but may also subdivide as impulses. Second and fourth waves of diagonals are usually deep corrections, between 66% to 81%. Minuette wave (ii) is deeper at 94% and minuette wave (iv) is so far 75%.

Within the leading diagonal minuette wave (v) may not be truncated, it must move below 85.64.

The diagonal is expanding (although the trend lines contract because of the angle of minuette wave (iv) ). We should expect minuette wave (v) to be longer than minuette wave (iii) so to move below 82.59. However, I have seen diagonals where the third wave is still the longest, so this may not happen.

Minuette wave (iv) of the diagonal should overlap into minuette wave (i) price territory, but may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (ii) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This 2 hourly chart shows all of the zigzag for minuette wave (iv). We may use Elliott’s channeling technique for a correction to draw a channel about this movement. Draw the first trendline from the start of minuette wave (iv) to the low of subminuette wave b within it, then place a parallel copy upon the high of subminuette wave a. So far this channel has not been breached by downwards movement.

We would need to see this channel breached by downwards movement to be confident that minuette wave (iv) is completed and the next wave down, minuette wave (v), has begun.

At that stage we may be confident that we shall see a new low below 85.64, and probably below 82.59.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (ii). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.

US Oil Update – 24th April, 2013

If price moves above 91.99 my main wave count would be invalidated. This is the alternate I would use.

However, if the main wave count is invalidated I would want to do further work on finding new alternates, to consider all possibilities. At this stage the chart below is the highest probability alternate I can see. I may have more for you next week.

Good luck!

Click on the chart below to enlarge.

Alternate Oil Wave Count.

US Oil daily alternate 2013

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd April, 2013

Last week’s analysis had a short term target for some upwards movement at 89.21 to 89.41.

Price has moved higher and so far is 0.23 above the target. But the structure is incomplete. I have calculated a new target for you this week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete. Within minute wave iii minuette waves (i), (ii) and (iii) may be complete. Recent movement may be minuette wave (iv). Minuette wave (iii) was 0.54 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). I would not expect to see a ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Minuette waves (i) and (iii) both lasted four days. Minuette wave (ii) lasted a Fibonacci three days. So far minuette wave (iv) has lasted six days. If it continues for another two days it would have lasted a Fibonacci eight.

Minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07.

At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 91.99.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

So far the structure within minuette wave (iv) has the appearance and behaviour of an expanded flat, but the subdivisions of a double zigzag.

The key is the upwards movement labeled subminuette wave w. This cannot be seen as a five wave structure. It subdivides into a three.

Within the second zigzag labeled subminuette wave y micro wave A subdivides into a leading contracting diagonal. Micro wave B is an expanded flat. Micro wave C so far looks most likely to be an ending diagonal because within it submicro wave (1) subdivides on the fifteen minute chart as a zigzag.

Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide into zigzags. This is the only time you would see a third wave labeled as anything other than an impulse. Within an ending diagonal it must be a zigzag.

Within the ending diagonal of micro wave C submicro wave (4) should overlap back into submicro wave (1) price territory, and may not move beyond the end of submicro wave (2). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 87.82 before the structure of micro wave C is complete.

At 91.07 micro wave C would reach equality in length with micro wave A. This target may be two days away.

When micro wave C ending diagonal is complete we should expect new downwards movement for minuette wave (v).

Draw a channel about subminuette wave y as a best fit. When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then expect that minuette wave (iv) is complete and minuette wave (v) downwards has begun.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th April, 2013

Oil analysis last week expected price to move strongly lower as the middle of a third wave unfolded which is exactly what has happened.

Targets have not been met, but the structure is incomplete. It should continue to move lower over the next week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Daily Chart 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07.

At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 91.99.

US Oil Elliott Wave Hourly Chart 2013

The strong downwards movement of the last three days is exactly what we should expect to see for a third wave. I may consider moving the degree of labeling of minuette wave (iii) down one degree if the next wave down increases further in momentum.

Last analysis expected a little upwards movement to complete minuette wave (ii) to a target at 95.07 to 95.29. Price did move higher to 94.82, just 0.25 short of the target zone. Thereafter, price turned downwards in a third wave.

Within minuette wave (iii) it looks likely that this structure is complete.

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.22 longer than 4.236 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within submineutte wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is exactly 0.382 the length of micro wave 3.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) is just 0.10 longer than equality with submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 0.11 longer than 0.382 the length of submicro wave (3).

Minuette wave (iv) may end about the fourth wave of one lesser degree about 89.21 which is close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (iii) at 89.41.

Minuette wave (ii) was a zigzag so we may expect minuette wave (iv) to be most likely a flat, double or triangle.

Draw a channel about this third wave. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the high of minuette wave (ii). Expect price to be contained within this channel; if minuette wave (iv) moves above the target it should find resistance about the upper edge of the channel. Minuette wave (v) down to follow may end either midway within the channel, or should find support at the lower edge.

Minuette wave (ii) lasted three days. I would expect minuette wave (iv) to last about three or five days, depending upon which structure it unfolds as.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th April, 2013

Last week’s oil analysis expected price to move lower. The short term target at 94.52 has been exceeded by 2.53.

This week I expect the completion of a minuette degree second wave correction, followed by a third wave down.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07.

At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

The parallel channel around the correction of minute wave ii is clearly breached by downwards movement providing trend channel confirmation that minute wave ii is over and minute wave iii is underway.

Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart 2013

Within minuette wave (i) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.03 short of equality with micro wave 3.

At 95.29 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a. At 95.07 micro wave 5 within subminuette wave c would reach equality with micro wave 1.

The channel drawn about minuette wave (i) using Elliott’s technique is clearly breached by upwards movement. Minuette wave (i) is complete and minuette wave (ii) is underway.

We can now also draw a channel about minuette wave (ii). Draw the first trend line from the start of subminuette wave a to the end of subminuette wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of subminuette wave a. So far price is contained within this channel. Subminuette wave c may overshoot this channel. When this channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minuette wave (ii) is complete and minuette wave (iii) is underway.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.

It is possible that subminuette wave b may not be over and may continue yet further sideways. While minuette wave (ii) is underway subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 91.99.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd April, 2013

The main wave count on last analysis expected more upwards movement from Oil towards a short to mid term target at 94.3 to 94.84. Price did continue higher to reach 2.89 above the target zone at 97.73, remaining below the invalidation point which is very close by now at 98.24.

The wave count remains the same. The correction must now be over; there is little room left for upwards movement that a third wave downwards should begin.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete.

Minor wave 3 must make a new low below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07.

At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Draw a parallel channel around the correction of minute wave ii. Draw the first trend line from the start of minuette wave (a) to the end of minuette wave (b), then place a parallel copy upon the high of minuette wave (a). Often C waves overshoot such channels, as is the case here. When the channel is clearly breached by downwards movement we shall have trend channel confirmation that minute wave ii is over and minute wave iii is underway.

Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

If it continues any higher minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 98.24.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart hourly 2013

Minute wave ii subdivides as a complete zigzag.

Downwards movement labeled subminuette wave i downwards is ambiguous. On the five minute chart there is so much overlapping within this movement it could be seen as either a three or a five. This wave count sees it as a five.

On the five minute chart subdivisions within subminuette wave ii are clear. Micro wave A is a three, as is micro wave B, and micro wave C can only be seen as a five. This structure is a regular flat correction; micro wave B is a 101% correction of micro wave A, and micro wave C has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave A ending a little beyond the end of micro wave A.

Within minuette wave (c) there are no Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Within subminuette wave iii micro wave 3 is 0.38 short of 4.236 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of micro waves 1 or 3.

Within micro wave 3 submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 0.20 longer than 1.618 the length of submicro wave (1).

At 94.52 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

This wave count expects to see downwards movement which must make a new low below the end of subminuette wave i at 95.93, and which should show an increase in downwards momentum.

If subminuette wave ii moves any higher it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 97.73.