Category Archives: US Oil Historical

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2013

Oil has moved higher as expected for the week, remaining just below the invalidation point. If price breaks above 110.56 in the next one to few weeks this wave count will change significantly. I will briefly cover the alternate for this scenario today.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (2) is most likely now a complete zigzag. There is a nice evening doji star candlestick pattern at the high of intermediate wave (2) indicating a trend change.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave C has no Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A.

Ratios within minor wave C are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is just 0.06 longer than 0.382 the length of minute wave i.

When the wide parallel channel containing intermediate wave (2) is breached then we shall have trend channel confirmation of this trend change.

Within intermediate wave (2) minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 108.92.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The structure within intermediate wave (2) may again be considered complete. Price did not move lower as expected to complete minute wave iv last week, it moved sideways to complete a triangle. Within the triangle on the five minute chart minuette wave (e) itself subdivides nicely into a contracting triangle.

There is perfect alternation between minute waves ii and iv; minute wave ii was a deep sharp zigzag, minute wave iv is a time consuming sideways moving shallow triangle.

The channel drawn about the impulse of minor wave C is now very clearly breached indicating intermediate wave (2) is probably over and intermediate wave (3) has likely just begun.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.01 short of 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is exactly 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). With these remarkably good Fibonacci ratios I am confident this labeling of minute wave iv triangle and minute wave v impulse is correct.

Within the new downwards movement we do not have a clear five down. This movement so far does not subdivide into a leading diagonal because the first wave down labeled subminuette wave i itself subdivides into a diagonal on the five minute chart.

Within subminuette wave iii if micro wave 2 were to move higher it may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 108.58.

Alternate Monthly Wave Count.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly Alternate 2013

If price moves above 110.56 in the next week this is the wave count I would use.

It is possible that cycle wave b is not over and is completing a double zigzag, with primary wave X within it a contracting triangle.

The triangle of primary wave X does fit, in that all the waves within it can be seen as threes, but it does not have a very typical look for a contracting triangle. The overshoot of the B-D trend line within intermediate wave (E) looks strange. For this reason I would judge this wave count to have a low probability. I would only consider it seriously if it was confirmed with price movement above 110.56.

If this wave count is confirmed we should expect a continuation of upwards movement from oil for some months yet. There is not normally a Fibonacci ratio between subwaves W and Y within doubles, and so a target for primary wave Y to end could only be calculated when intermediate waves (A) and (B) within it are complete.

Cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 146.73.

US Oil Elliott Wave Analysis – 19th February, 2013

My last oil analysis was over a year ago and it expected price to move lower. Price has mostly moved sideways in a decreasing range for the last year.

My wave count at the monthly chart level is changed very little. I have a new monthly alternate.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

US Oil monthly 2013

The long rise to the high of 146.73 in July 2008 looks typically impulsive, with a spike at the end typical of commodities.

This may have been the end of a first wave at super cycle degree, wave (I) (olive green).

Thereafter, the drop labeled cycle wave a (teal green) subdivides reasonably well into a five wave structure which indicates that the upwards trend is over and a new downwards trend is underway. If this is an A wave it also indicates that the downwards correction is a zigzag which rules out a new all time high in the foreseeable future.

This main wave count looks at the possibility that cycle wave b was over in just over two years as a single zigzag structure. Within cycle wave b primary wave C is just 1.64 points short of equality with primary wave A.

If cycle wave c has begun at 114.82 then it has begun with a series of overlapping first and second waves. This indicates that a strong third wave downwards should follow soon. Price movement below 77.29 would provide confirmation of this wave count as at that stage the alternate below would be invalidated.

Within this new downwards trend intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This main wave count is invalidated with movement above 110.56.

US Oil daily 2013

This daily chart looks at the end of intermediate wave (1) with minor waves 1 and 2 to follow it now complete.

Minor wave 1 is a leading contracting diagonal. Following a leading diagonal in a first wave position we would expect to see a very deep second wave correction. Minor wave 2 is an 87% correction of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 2 there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is just 0.6 points longer than 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.05 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.16 short of equality with micro wave 1.

If this wave count is correct then it is extremely likely that minor wave 2 is complete. At 71.33 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

If price moves above 100.43 I may favour the alternate wave count below.

Alternate Wave Count.

US Oil monthly alternate 2013

There may be a triangle forming over the last 18 months. If so it would most likely be an X wave at primary degree, because the upwards movement labeled primary wave W subdivides as a three not a five.

The triangle would be contracting. It may be over, or intermediate wave (D) or (E) may yet continue further sideways in an ever decreasing range for a while yet.

Movement above 110.56 would indicate that the triangle is complete and the following upwards thrust would be underway.

Movement below 77.29 would invalidate the triangle because intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C). If the triangle is invalidated with downwards movement the main wave count above would be confirmed.

Price exits a triangle in the same direction it entered. This wave count expects an upwards thrust when the triangle is completed. The upwards thrust may travel about the same distance as the widest part of the triangle which was 39.86.

Because cycle wave a subdivides best as a five super cycle wave (II) may be a zigzag. Within the zigzag cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a. Movement above 146.73 to a new all time high is not expected for this wave count.