Category Archives: Commodities

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th July, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement from gold to one of two targets, 1,296 or 1,349, before a short term trend change. The trend change would be confirmed with movement below 1,267.60.

Price did move a little higher to 1,300.93, $4.93 above the first target, and may have turned down. We do not have confirmation of this short term trend change yet. We may use the channel on the hourly chart and 1,267.60.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete. It is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination. All these structures are more time consuming than a brief zigzag.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. If it unfolds as a running triangle or an expanded flat then within it minor wave B may make a new low below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave A is probably now complete.

Within minor wave A minute wave c is 5.41 longer than equality with minute wave a.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 4.22 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.71 longer than 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

We need to see this parallel channel drawn about minor wave A clearly breached by downwards movement to have confidence in this short term trend change.

If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a flat correction then within it minor wave B must reach to a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,192.45. Minor wave B may make a new low below the start of minor wave A at 1,180.40 and in fact is reasonably likely to do so because the most common type of flat is an expanded flat which would require minor wave B to reach 105% the length of minor wave A at 1,174.37.

If the next downwards movement fails to reach 1,192.45 or below then there are other structural possibilities for intermediate wave (4). It may be unfolding as a contracting or barrier triangle, or it may be a double zigzag, or a double combination.

All the structural possibilities for intermediate wave (4) at this stage require a three wave structure to unfold downwards which should last a few days and should take price below the parallel channel drawn here on the hourly chart.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th July, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement to a short term target at 105.57 to 105.60. Price has reached up to 107.46, 1.86 above the small target zone, before turning lower and breaching the small parallel channel drawn on last week’s hourly chart indicating a short term trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete zigzag. Within it minor wave B was a triangle and minor wave C is unfolding as an impulse which is incomplete.

Within the impulse of minor wave C minute waves i, ii and now iii are complete. Minute wave ii was a very deep 82% zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation I will expect minute wave iv to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i. I will expect to see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.

We may now use Elliott’s channeling technique to draw a channel about minor wave C. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves i to iii, place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave ii. Expect minute wave iv to find support at the lower edge of this channel.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 110.56.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave iv looks incomplete so far. It looks like it is unfolding as a shallow regular flat correction.

Within minute wave iv minuette wave (a) subdivides nicely as a zigzag. Minuette wave (b) is a complete double zigzag and is a 91% correction of minuette wave (a) meeting the mininum requirement of 90% for a flat and indicating a regular flat may be unfolding.

This wave count expects a five wave structure downwards to complete for minuette wave (c) which may find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel containing minute wave iv. This may end about the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 103.72.

At 104.03 minuette wave (c) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (a).

This gives us a small 0.31 cent target zone for the end of a little more downwards movement.

If minuette wave (c) continues lower through this target zone and below the small parallel channel containing the flat correction of minute wave iv then expect downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn on the daily chart.

When minute wave iv is complete then we should expect more upwards movement most likely to new highs above 107.38 as the final fifth wave upwards completes.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th July, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected choppy, overlapping movement for the continuation of an intermediate degree fourth wave correction, which is pretty much what we have seen.

It is too early to be certain of what structure is unfolding for intermediate wave (4), but it is most likely that it is incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may last three or more weeks and is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. If it unfolds as a running triangle or an expanded flat then within it minor wave B may make a new low below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far within intermediate wave (4) minor wave A may be an incomplete zigzag.

If minor wave A is unfolding as a zigzag then it is termed a “three”, which indicates either a flat or triangle unfolding for this fourth wave.

Within minor wave A zigzag minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a at 1,296. If price gets up to this first target and the structure of minor wave c is incomplete, or if it just keeps going through this first target, then the second target is at 1,349 where minor wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave a.

Thereafter, minor wave B should move to at least 90% the length of minor wave A and may make a new low.

If the next movement downwards moves below 1,267.60 then the upwards movement labeled minor wave A will be confirmed as a complete three wave zigzag because at that stage downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within a new impulse unfolding upwards.

If the next movement downwards which is expected to be minor wave B fails to reach a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A then a double zigzag or double combination may be unfolding.

At this stage it is too early to determine exactly which structure is unfolding for intermediate wave (4); it may be a flat, triangle, double or triple.

When the channel about minor wave A is clearly breached by downwards movement we shall have an indication that the upwards zigzag is complete and the next wave downwards is underway.

When this current five wave impulse upwards is complete then the next downwards movement will illustrate what structure may be unfolding for intermediate wave (4). If the next movement breaches 1,267.60 then the upwards movement labeled minor wave A must be a completed three wave structure and intermediate wave (4) may be a flat, triangle or double. If the next downwards movement does not reach below 1,267.60 then minor wave A may be unfolding as a five wave impulse and intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as a zigzag.

Intermediate wave wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th July, 2013

Last week’s analysis published charts only.

Last week I expected the structure for a third wave upwards was incomplete. The short term target on the hourly chart was 105.52. Price has reached up so far to 0.76 short of the target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart follows on directly from last week’s analysis.

Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete zigzag. Within it minor wave B was a triangle and minor wave C is unfolding as an impulse which is incomplete.

Within the impulse of minor wave C minute waves i and ii are complete. Minute wave ii was a very deep 82% zigzag correction. Given the guideline of alternation I will expect minute wave iv to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

At 105.57 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. About this point I would expect upwards movement to stall for between three and five days. Minute wave iv should move price sideways. Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 110.56.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

This hourly chart shows the entire structure within minute wave iii.

Within minute wave iii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii). This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii). At 105.60 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (iii). This gives us a 3 cent target zone for a little more upwards movement.

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) are: subminuette wave iii is 0.60 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of subminuette wave waves i or iii.

When minute wave iii is complete we should expect a short term trend change and some sideways movement for minute wave iv. Minute wave iv should breach the small best fit parallel channel containing minute wave iii, and this will be confirmation it has begun.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 99.21.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 3rd July, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected upwards movement from a low of 1,221.88. Price moved lower first to reach down to 1,180.40, $41.48 below where I had expected the low to be.

However, we did not see a trend channel breach on the hourly chart and did not have confirmation that a low was in place, until after price moved lower. With a very clear channel breach now we may be more confident that gold is in an upwards correction to last a few more weeks.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2), and possibly also (3), are complete.

Intermediate wave (3) is now 51.96 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1). Although this is a big difference because these waves are at intermediate wave degree the difference is 9%. I consider less than a 10% variation an acceptable Fibonacci ratio.

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 21.24 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is 22.23 longer than 0.618 the length of minor wave 3.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may last three or more weeks and is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far we have a very clear trend channel breach of the downwards movement labeled intermediate wave (3). We may consider this confirmation that the downwards impulse is now over and an upwards correction at intermediate degree has begun.

Given the guideline of alternation intermediate wave (4) is most likely to be (in order of probability) a flat, combination or triangle.

At this stage minor wave A within it may be an incomplete three wave structure. If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a flat then minor wave A within it is most likely to be a zigzag. At 1,324 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

Ratios within minute wave a are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 1.19 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Ratios within minuette wave (v) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.54 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Within the zigzag of minor wave A minute wave a is complete. Minute wave b may be complete, or it may yet move price lower. If it does then it may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. Movement below 1,180.40 in the short term (before minor wave A is a clearly complete zigzag) would invalidate this wave count at minor wave degree.

When minor wave A is complete then minor wave B should move down to at least 90% the length of minor wave A, and is likely to make a new low below the start of minor wave A at 1,180.40 because the most common type of flat is an expanded flat and this requires minor wave B to be a minimum of 105% the length of minor wave A.

Overall intermediate wave (4) should be choppy, overlapping and should last another two to four weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2013

Last analysis expected more downwards movement. This is what happened, but price moved lower faster than expected: the target zone I had thought was about six weeks away at 1,232 to 1,216 was met in just one week.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2), and possibly also (3), are complete.

Intermediate wave (3) is 10.48 longer than 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is 21.24 longer than 2.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is just 6.08 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may last three or more weeks and is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 1,425.37, which is just above the fourth wave of one lesser degree. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then this target will change.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the high of intermediate wave (2).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Ratios within minor wave 5 are: minute wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to minute wave i, and minute wave v is 1.91 longer than 0.146 the length of minute wave iii.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.50 short of 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

Within minuette wave (iii) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 1.9 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.43 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Ratios within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii is 1.96 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 2.63 short of equality with subminuette wave iii.

I have drawn a channel about minor wave 5. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy to contain all of the movement within minuette wave (v). When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have some confirmation that minor wave 5 is over, and so intermediate wave (3) should be also over.

There are thirteen possible corrective structures for intermediate wave (4). At this very early stage it is impossible to say which structure will unfold. We can be sure it will contain a lot of choppy, overlapping and difficult to analyse movement. It may contain a new price extreme beyond the start of intermediate wave (4), below 1,221.88, so there is no lower invalidation point.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th June, 2013

Last analysis of US Oil was two weeks ago. It expected upwards movement to complete a second wave correction with a target at 98.36 and an invalidation point very close to that at 100.43.

Price moved higher as expected to reach 99.21, just 0.85 above the target, before turning strongly downwards.

The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and now also 2 are both probably complete. The next movement downwards should be a strong third wave.

I have drawn a parallel channel about the second zigzag in the double of minor wave 2. When this channel is clearly breached with at least one full daily candlestick below it and not touching the lower trend line then we shall have trend channel confirmation of a trend change. At this stage we have an overshoot only, not a clear channel breach.

However, there is no room left for upwards movement for minor wave 2. Also, it is a double zigzag structure which is reasonably common and for it to continue further would see it unfold as a very rare triple. The probability that this correction is finally over is extremely high.

We should expect Oil to continue to fall with an increase of downwards momentum. In the next few weeks to months we may see some explosive downwards movement.

Minor wave 3 must move below the end of minor wave 1 at 84.07. At 72.74 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This target is weeks away.

When minute waves i through to iv within minor wave 3 are complete then the target calculation may be done at a second wave degree. The target of 84.07 may widen into a zone or it may change as there is more structure to analyse.

Within minor wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 99.21.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far within minute wave iii we may have the end of minuette wave (i) within minor wave i.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii, and subminuette wave v is 0.07 short of 0.236 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 is 0.14 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.01 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) is 0.03 longer than 1.618 the length of micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of micro waves 1 or 3.

Within micro wave 4 submicro wave (C) is 0.01 longer than 2.618 the length of submicro wave (A).

Ratios within subminuette wave a of minuette wave (ii) are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.13 short of 1.618 the length of micro wave 1.

At 96.82 subminuette wave c would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave a, and minuette wave (ii) would end just above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i). If subminuette wave b moves lower the target at 96.82 must also move correspondingly lower.

While minuette wave (ii) is incomplete any further downwards movement of subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a at 92.71.

When we have upwards movement for subminuette wave c then this short term invalidation point will no longer apply.

We may expect subminuette wave c to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel drawn about minuette wave (ii).

This second wave correction should be over within 24 to 48 hours. I expect a trend change during the next week. The next movement downwards should see an increase in downwards momentum.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th June, 2013

Last analysis expected the completion within one or two days of a small second wave correction and thereafter a trend change to the downside during the week. Downwards movement was expected to show an increase in momentum which is what we have seen in the last 24 hours.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 are complete.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1). At 1,216 minor wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This gives a $16 target zone which should be about 6 weeks away.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target.

Within minor wave 5 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,423.91.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave 4 I have this week moved the degree of labeling up one degree. Minute waves i and ii are complete.

Minute wave iii is incomplete. At 1,300.94 it would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This target may be reached within another five days or so.

When minute wave iii is complete we can draw a parallel channel about this new downwards wave. It is too early to do that yet.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iii) is incomplete. It may be finished within a few days. The following correction for minuette wave (iv) may not move back into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,374.61.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th June, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected a triangle to complete and a sharp upwards thrust to follow it. The triangle did complete and remained valid as price remained above 1,388.88. The sharp upward thrust did happen but it did not reach the expectation of 1,475. A subsequent breach of the parallel channel indicated a trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. Minor wave 4 is now probably complete also.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1). At 1,216 minor wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This gives a $16 target zone which should be about 6 weeks away.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

A small parallel channel drawn about minor wave 4 is now clearly breached by downwards movement. This is an indication that minor wave 4 should be over and minor wave 5 should not be underway.

Three is the maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple and so far three structures have unfolded within minor wave 4. If my analysis of this fourth wave correction is correct then we should not see movement above 1,423.91.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave 4 ended with a clear three wave structure upwards for a final zigzag in the multiple. Thereafter, the channel containing it is clearly breached by downwards movement.

So far we have a clear five down on the hourly chart. This is further confirmation that we have seen a trend change.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.75 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.71 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

So far minuette wave (ii) looks like it is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Within it subminuette wave a is a clear five wave structure.

Ratios within subminuette wave a are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.98 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 1.

I would expect subminuette wave b to breach the small channel containing submineutte wave a. Subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,365.91.

Subminuette wave b should unfold as a three wave structure.

Thereafter, subminuette wave c upwards should unfold as a five and is highly likely to make an new high above the end of subminuette wave a at 1,395.02. It may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i) at 1,401.75.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,410.92.

Minuette wave (ii) may be completed within another one or two days. We may see a trend change back to the downside during the next week, before next analysis. The next wave down is a third wave so we should see some increase in downwards momentum.

When minuette wave (ii) can be seen as a complete three wave structure the lower short term invalidation point no longer applies.

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th June, 2013

Last week’s analysis of Oil expected more upwards movement which is what has happened. The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This wave count sees US Oil in a third wave downwards at intermediate degree, within a primary wave C down.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor wave 1 is complete and minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double zigzag. Within the double zigzag structure of minor wave 2 the first zigzag labeled minute wave w is complete, as is the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x. Within minute wave y zigzag minuette wave (a) subdivides into a five wave impulse. Minuette wave (b) is a completed zigzag, and minuette wave (c) upwards is incomplete.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 100.43.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within the structure of minuette wave (c) subminuette waves i through to iv may be complete. Minuette wave (c) may be unfolding as an impulse.

Subminuette wave iii is just 0.04 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. At 96.49 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i.

At 98.36 minuette wave (c) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (a) within the zigzag of minute wave y. This would bring minor wave 2 right up to the start of minor wave 1.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (c). Draw the first trend line from the lows of subminuette waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the high of subminuette wave iii. Expect subminuette wave v to most likely end midway within this channel.

As soon as we can see another five wave structure upwards complete from the low of subminuette wave iv then it will be possible that subminuette wave v is complete. At that stage the short term invalidation point must be removed and we would expect a trend change.

Within subminuette wave v no second wave correction may move beyond its start. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 94.07.

If this wave count is invalidated with downwards movement then I would expect that this final fifth wave has come to an end and so minor wave 2 in its entirety may be over.