Category Archives: Gold

Weekly Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of S&P500 and Gold and US Oil – 9th March, 2018

Lara’s Weekly is an end of week Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of the S&P 500, GOLD, and USOIL that focuses on the mid-to-long-term picture. This analysis service is designed for investors and swing traders.

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This analysis was previously posted on Elliott Wave Gold.

Weekly Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of S&P500 and Gold and US Oil – 23rd February, 2018

Lara’s Weekly is an end of week Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of the S&P 500, GOLD, and USOIL that focuses on the mid-to-long-term picture.

Lara’s Weekly is at this time available to the general public, but in the near future it will be available by subscription only. To be notified via e-mail when subscriptions to Lara’s Weekly will begin click the Notify Me button below:


To download Lara’s Weekly as a PDF document, click here.

This analysis was previously posted on Elliott Wave Gold.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected more upwards movement from gold towards a short term target at 1,431. Price did move higher but has fallen well short of the target.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted eight weeks and it is incomplete. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse and minor wave B subdivides as a zigzag. Minor wave C is incomplete.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in another week or two.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, and it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Upwards movement completed a third wave, minute wave iii, within minor wave C. Minute wave iii is 2.62 short of equality with minute wave i. This limits minute wave v to come to no longer than equality with minute wave iii which was 68.58 in length.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) is 1.80 longer than 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii).

Within minuette wave (v) of minute wave iii are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is 0.40 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.

The movement within minute wave iv may be a regular contracting triangle unfolding. It looks like minuette wave (b) within it is completed, and because this is less than 90% the length of minuette wave (a) it cannot be a flat. Because minuette wave (b) unfolds as a double zigzag a combination is unlikely, because the X wave within a combination may only subdivide into a simple three and may not itself be a combination.

If this analysis is correct for minute wave iv then we should expect more very choppy overlapping sideways movement for another day to three as the triangle completes. Following this we should see a sharp upwards thrust as minute wave v completes, which may not be longer than 68.58.

For the triangle to remain valid minuette wave (c) may not move below the end of minuette wave (a) at 1,352.35 and minuette wave (d) may not move above 1,379.29. Although, if the triangle is a barrier triangle then minuette wave (d) may move very slightly above 1,379.29, as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat. The upper invalidation point for the triangle is not as firm as the lower invalidation point.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as an expanding triangle, but the rarity of this structure means the probability is very low.

Minute wave iv may also be unfolding as a combination and the X wave within it may be incomplete. It may also be a more time consuming flat correction with the B wave within it incomplete. I will consider these other possibilities if they show themselves.

What’s clear is this correction is incomplete.

When minute wave iv is complete then I will recalculate the target for minor wave C to end. I cannot do that for you yet.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,344.26.

When minute wave iv is completed the lower invalidation point no longer applies.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th August, 2013

Movement above 1,320.86 early in this last week confirmed the main hourly wave count which expected more upwards movement. This week I have just the one wave count for you.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C within a cycle degree wave IV.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about four to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. So far it is just over four weeks. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse.

At the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) this movement looks strongly like a five wave impulse on the daily chart. If this is correct then intermediate wave (4) cannot be over here and must continue. I have tried to see if this can subdivide as a double zigzag. It can, just, but the wave count looks forced and must include a rare running flat.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in a bout a week or so. If minor wave B continues lower then this target must move correspondingly lower.

Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave C only minute wave i is complete. Minute wave ii is most likely to be complete as a single zigzag structure and just 39% of minute wave i. Within minute wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (c) and (a). There is alternation between them: minuette wave (a) was a contracting diagonal and minuette wave (c) an expanding diagonal.

Ratios within minute wave i are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 1.84 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Ratios within minuette wave (iii) of minute wave i are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.40 short of equality with subminuette wave iii.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (i) is close to completion. Within it subminuette wave iii is 2.75 short of 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 1,431 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

The channel drawn here is an acceleration channel. I would expect to see an increase in upwards momentum over this next week and this channel may be breached by upwards movement.

When minuette wave (i) is complete then minuette wave (ii) should move price lower and may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,316.05.

If price moves below 1,316.05 then minuette wave (ii) is continuing. The invalidation point must then move down to the start of minute wave i at 1,273.06.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th August, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement from gold for the week. The hourly wave count was invalidated and price has moved lower, remaining above the invalidation point on the daily chart. Downwards movement is most likely a continuation of minor wave B.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about four to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. So far it is just over four weeks. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse.

At the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (4) this movement looks strongly like a five wave impulse on the daily chart. If this is correct then intermediate wave (4) cannot be over here and must continue. I have tried to see if this can subdivide as a double zigzag. It can, just, but the wave count looks forced and must include a rare running flat.

At 1,441 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. This target should be met in a bout a week or so. If minor wave B continues lower then this target must move correspondingly lower.

Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 0.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave B was not over last week. It continued further as a double zigzag. The subdivisions here within the first zigzag are the labeled the same as last week.

Within the second zigzag of the double labeled minute wave y minuette wave (c) is 3.43 short of equality with minuette wave (a).

I would have confidence in this wave count with price movement above 1,320.86. At that stage the alternate below would be invalidated.

Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,273.06.

If this wave count is invalidated then the alternate below should be used.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

It is possible that minor wave B is an incomplete single zigzag if minute wave c within it is unfolding as an ending diagonal which is incomplete. The subdivisions are the same on both hourly wave counts up to this point.

Within the ending diagonal of minute wave c within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,320.86.

This wave count would expect a few more days of downwards movement.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st July, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected upwards movement for the week from gold. Price moved sideways before a sharp spike lower. Price has now turned back upwards.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag, because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse. Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave B was not over and continued further as a more time consuming zigzag with a triangle in the middle of minute wave b. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and c.

Redraw the parallel channel about intermediate wave (4) using Elliott’s technique on the daily chart and copy it over to the hourly chart. Expect any downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of this channel.

At 1,370 minor wave C would reach 0.382 the length of minor wave A. If at this point the structure within minor wave C is a complete five then it may end there. If the structure is incomplete about this point, or if price gets there and keeps rising, then the next calculated target is at 1,410 where minor wave C would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave A.

Within minor wave C minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,305.95.

When minor wave C may be seen as a compete five wave structure then we may expect an end to intermediate wave (4) and a resumption of the downwards trend for gold. At that stage a clear breach of the blue channel containing the zigzag for minor wave (4) would provide trend channel confirmation that the upwards zigzag is over and the next wave is underway. The next wave is most likely to be intermediate wave (5).


GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th July, 2013

Last analysis expected choppy overlapping movement to 1,192.45 or below in the short to mid term. Overall the wave count expected further upwards movement for a fourth wave correction at intermediate degree.

Price did not move lower, it moved higher. The most likely structure, a flat correction, is not the structure unfolding for this fourth wave.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. At this stage it looks like it may be unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag, because so far minor wave A subdivides as a completed five wave impulse. Within the zigzag minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

At this stage we now have a clear five wave structure upwards within minor wave A indicating intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a zigzag or a double with the first structure a zigzag.

Ratios within minor wave A are: minute wave iii is 5.41 longer than equality with minute wave i, and minute wave v has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii.

Ratios within minute wave v are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.38 longer than 0.382 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within minor wave B it is possible the structure is complete, but it is also possible that it will move lower. On the five minute chart the small upwards movement following the low labeled minor wave B does not subdivide nicely as a five wave structure, so this may be a correction within a larger downwards movement for minor wave B.

When price turns and moves above 1,338.62 then minor wave B is most likely to be over and minor wave C should be underway.

Use Elliott’s technique to draw a parallel channel about intermediate wave (4). Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. Expect minor wave C to end about the upper trend line.

If minor wave B moves lower then redraw the channel.

Overall I expect this structure to take a few more days to complete. It may find resistance a the upper edge of the channel drawn on the daily chart.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th July, 2013

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement from gold to one of two targets, 1,296 or 1,349, before a short term trend change. The trend change would be confirmed with movement below 1,267.60.

Price did move a little higher to 1,300.93, $4.93 above the first target, and may have turned down. We do not have confirmation of this short term trend change yet. We may use the channel on the hourly chart and 1,267.60.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) so far has lasted almost three weeks and I would expect it is incomplete. It is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination. All these structures are more time consuming than a brief zigzag.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. If it unfolds as a running triangle or an expanded flat then within it minor wave B may make a new low below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within intermediate wave (4) minor wave A is probably now complete.

Within minor wave A minute wave c is 5.41 longer than equality with minute wave a.

Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 4.22 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is just 0.71 longer than 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

We need to see this parallel channel drawn about minor wave A clearly breached by downwards movement to have confidence in this short term trend change.

If intermediate wave (4) is unfolding as a flat correction then within it minor wave B must reach to a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,192.45. Minor wave B may make a new low below the start of minor wave A at 1,180.40 and in fact is reasonably likely to do so because the most common type of flat is an expanded flat which would require minor wave B to reach 105% the length of minor wave A at 1,174.37.

If the next downwards movement fails to reach 1,192.45 or below then there are other structural possibilities for intermediate wave (4). It may be unfolding as a contracting or barrier triangle, or it may be a double zigzag, or a double combination.

All the structural possibilities for intermediate wave (4) at this stage require a three wave structure to unfold downwards which should last a few days and should take price below the parallel channel drawn here on the hourly chart.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th July, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected choppy, overlapping movement for the continuation of an intermediate degree fourth wave correction, which is pretty much what we have seen.

It is too early to be certain of what structure is unfolding for intermediate wave (4), but it is most likely that it is incomplete.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) are complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may last about three to six weeks, depending upon what structure it takes. Intermediate wave (2) lasted three weeks and was a deep 66% zigzag. Intermediate wave (4) may last three or more weeks and is most likely to be a relatively shallow flat, triangle or combination.

Intermediate wave (4) may end at either the 0.236 or 0.382 Fibonacci ratios. When there is more structure within this fourth wave to analyse then a target for it to end may be calculated.

Intermediate wave (4) may find resistance at the upper edge of the parallel channel drawn here using Elliott’s first technique. Draw the first trend line from the lows of intermediate waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the extreme within intermediate wave (3).

Within intermediate wave (4) movement should be very choppy and overlapping. If it unfolds as a running triangle or an expanded flat then within it minor wave B may make a new low below 1,180.40.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A. This target is a long term target. When we know where intermediate wave (4) has ended within primary wave C then we may use a second wave degree to also calculate this target, so it may widen to a zone or may change.

Within primary wave C intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

So far within intermediate wave (4) minor wave A may be an incomplete zigzag.

If minor wave A is unfolding as a zigzag then it is termed a “three”, which indicates either a flat or triangle unfolding for this fourth wave.

Within minor wave A zigzag minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a at 1,296. If price gets up to this first target and the structure of minor wave c is incomplete, or if it just keeps going through this first target, then the second target is at 1,349 where minor wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave a.

Thereafter, minor wave B should move to at least 90% the length of minor wave A and may make a new low.

If the next movement downwards moves below 1,267.60 then the upwards movement labeled minor wave A will be confirmed as a complete three wave zigzag because at that stage downwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within a new impulse unfolding upwards.

If the next movement downwards which is expected to be minor wave B fails to reach a minimum of 90% the length of minor wave A then a double zigzag or double combination may be unfolding.

At this stage it is too early to determine exactly which structure is unfolding for intermediate wave (4); it may be a flat, triangle, double or triple.

When the channel about minor wave A is clearly breached by downwards movement we shall have an indication that the upwards zigzag is complete and the next wave downwards is underway.

When this current five wave impulse upwards is complete then the next downwards movement will illustrate what structure may be unfolding for intermediate wave (4). If the next movement breaches 1,267.60 then the upwards movement labeled minor wave A must be a completed three wave structure and intermediate wave (4) may be a flat, triangle or double. If the next downwards movement does not reach below 1,267.60 then minor wave A may be unfolding as a five wave impulse and intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding as a zigzag.

Intermediate wave wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.