Category Archives: Gold

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th June, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected a triangle to complete and a sharp upwards thrust to follow it. The triangle did complete and remained valid as price remained above 1,388.88. The sharp upward thrust did happen but it did not reach the expectation of 1,475. A subsequent breach of the parallel channel indicated a trend change.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. Minor wave 4 is now probably complete also.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1). At 1,216 minor wave 5 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. This gives a $16 target zone which should be about 6 weeks away.

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

A small parallel channel drawn about minor wave 4 is now clearly breached by downwards movement. This is an indication that minor wave 4 should be over and minor wave 5 should not be underway.

Three is the maximum number of corrective structures within a multiple and so far three structures have unfolded within minor wave 4. If my analysis of this fourth wave correction is correct then we should not see movement above 1,423.91.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minor wave 4 ended with a clear three wave structure upwards for a final zigzag in the multiple. Thereafter, the channel containing it is clearly breached by downwards movement.

So far we have a clear five down on the hourly chart. This is further confirmation that we have seen a trend change.

Ratios within minuette wave (i) are: subminuette wave iii is just 0.75 longer than 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.71 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

So far minuette wave (ii) looks like it is unfolding as a simple zigzag. Within it subminuette wave a is a clear five wave structure.

Ratios within subminuette wave a are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.98 longer than 0.618 the length of micro wave 1.

I would expect subminuette wave b to breach the small channel containing submineutte wave a. Subminuette wave b may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. This wave count is invalidated in the short term with movement below 1,365.91.

Subminuette wave b should unfold as a three wave structure.

Thereafter, subminuette wave c upwards should unfold as a five and is highly likely to make an new high above the end of subminuette wave a at 1,395.02. It may end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minuette wave (i) at 1,401.75.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,410.92.

Minuette wave (ii) may be completed within another one or two days. We may see a trend change back to the downside during the next week, before next analysis. The next wave down is a third wave so we should see some increase in downwards momentum.

When minuette wave (ii) can be seen as a complete three wave structure the lower short term invalidation point no longer applies.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th June, 2013

Last week’s analysis had two wave counts. The main wave count was invalidated with movement above 1,402.23. The alternate wave count expected more upwards movement for a fourth wave correction at minor degree.

This week I have just the one wave count for you. This correction is unlikely to be complete. We should see further upwards movement.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. Minor wave 4 is incomplete.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,625.95.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

I have considered several possibilities for minor wave 4: a single zigzag with one of the subwaves (either minute wave a or c) a diagonal, or a double zigzag, or a double combination. The only structure which fits is a triple zigzag. So although this is rare it must be what is unfolding.

The purpose of triple zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first one (or two) zigzags did not move price deep enough. This is what is happening here, the structure should trend upwards, which it is.

Within this triple zigzag we have excellent alternation between the two X waves. The first minute wave x is an expanded flat correction. The second minute wave x is unfolding as an unmistakeable contracting triangle.

The triangle for minute wave x is almost complete. When minuette wave (e) within it is over we should expect a sharp upwards thrust for gold as the final third zigzag in the triple unfolds.

At 1,475 minor wave 4 would end at the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 3.

A parallel channel may be drawn about minor wave 4 so far as a best fit. When this channel is very clearly breached by upwards movement then we may have had a trend change.

Extend the triangle trend lines outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may see a trend change.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2013

Last week’s gold analysis expected downwards movement towards a target at 1,329. Price has not moved lower, but nor has it moved above the invalidation point at 1,419.78. Price has moved sideways for the week.

Sideways movement looks like a contracting triangle. This is either a fourth wave correction or an X wave within a larger fourth wave correction. I have two wave counts for you this week looking at these two possibilities.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v may be incomplete.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,441.48.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The triangle may be minuette wave (iv) within minute wave v.

All the triangle subwaves subdivide into zigzags or zigzag multiples so far. The final wave of subminuette wave e should be over. Any further upwards movement for subminuette wave e may not move beyond the end of subminuette wave c for a contracting triangle. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,402.23.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement we may use the alternate below.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

At the daily chart level this alternate is the same as the main wave count up to the point labeled minute wave iv within minor wave 3. Thereafter, this alternate sees the last wave downwards as a five wave impulse for a truncated fifth wave for minute wave v to end minor wave 3.

Because this wave count sees a truncation it has a slightly lower probability than the main wave count.

Within recent sideways movement the triangle may have begun at the high labeled minute wave w within minor wave 4. Minor wave 4 may be unfolding as a double zigzag or double combination, with the first structure minute wave w a complete zigzag, the three joining the two structures labeled minute wave x unfolding as a triangle. Minute wave y is most likely to be a zigzag, but it may also be a flat correction.

If price moves above 1,402.23 then the triangle is completed and the next movement is upwards. If the next wave upwards travels the same distance as the widest part of the triangle it would end at 1,449.09.

Minute wave y is most likely to subdivide as a zigzag lasting a few days.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2013

Within the recent sideways movement the subdivisions are seen here the same as the main wave count, except the degree of labeling is higher.

At the hourly chart level this alternate does not have as good a look as the main wave count.

Within a contracting triangle minuette wave (e) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c). This triangle is invalidated with movement below 1,379.57.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd May, 2013

Last week’s analysis had a short term target on the hourly chart at 1,357 for micro wave 3. Price fell short of this target by 12.78 before a small fourth wave correction, then continued lower to complete a fifth wave. The following fourth wave correction has remained below the invalidation point at 1,441.48.

The wave count remains the same and is nicely explaining recent movement.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v has just begun.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,488.13.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Subminuette waves iii and iv within minuette wave (iii) are now complete. The final fifth wave downwards needs to complete minuette wave (iii). When that is done we should expect a relatively shallow fourth wave correction for minuette wave (iv) which should begin sometime over the next week.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 2.23 short of equality with micro wave 1.

Ratios within micro wave 3 of subminuette wave iii are: submicro wave (3) is 4.3 short of 2.618 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1).

Ratios within micro wave 5 of subminuette wave iii are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is just 0.36 short of 0.236 the length of submicro wave (3).

Within subminuette wave iv there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Ratios within micro wave A of subminuette wave iv are: submicro wave (3) is just 0.24 longer than 4.236 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) has no Fibonacci ratio to either of submicro waves (1) or (3).

Within micro wave C of subminuette wave iv there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between submicro waves (1), (3) and (5).

A parallel channel drawn about the zigzag of subminuette wave iv is clearly breached by downwards movement indicating the correction is over.

Within minuette wave (iii) there is no Fibonacci ratio between subminuette waves i and iii. At 1,329 subminuette wave v would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Draw a parallel channel about minuette wave (iii). Draw the first trend line from the highs of subminuette waves ii to iv (you can see subminuette wave ii on the daily chart) then place a parallel copy upon the low of subminuette wave iii. If price moves below the target expect it to find support at the lower edge of the channel.

Within subminuette wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,419.78.

When minuette wave (iii) is complete then the invalidation point must move up to the low of minuette wave (i) at 1,456.39. The following fourth wave correction may not move back into minuette wave (i) price territory.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th May, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected downwards movement to a target for the week at 1,416. So far price has reached 28.74 below the target.

Price is on track to meet the first target on the daily chart at 1,276.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii, iii and iv are complete. Minute wave v has just begun. This was confirmed this week with a clear channel breach of the small channel I had containing the upwards zigzag of minute wave iv on last week’s chart.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.91 longer than 0.236 the length of minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) is slightly truncated.

At 1,276 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the orthodox length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated at minor degree with movement above 1,488.13.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Despite movement below the target for subminuette wave iii the structure is incomplete. The target was calculated at 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. Subminuette wave iii has passed 1.618 and is very close to 2.618 the length of subminuette wave i. It may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i. Ratios of actionary waves within it may be used to calculate the target when we have the ends of micro waves 3 and 4.

Ratios within micro wave 1 are: submicro wave (3) is 0.58 longer than 4.236 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 3.95 longer than 1.618 the length of submicro wave (3).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) of micro wave 1 are: minuscule wave 3 is 1.6 longer than equality with minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 0.26 short of 0.382 the length of minuscule wave 1.

Ratios within submicro wave (5) of micro wave 1 are: minuscule wave 3 is 0.90 short of 1.618 the length of minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 1.23 longer than equality with minuscule wave 1.

Within micro wave 3 submicro wave (3) is 4.10 short of 2.618 the length of submicro wave (1) (this is a 7.2% variation, I consider less than 10% acceptable).

Ratios within submicro wave (3) of micro wave 3 are: minuscule wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to minuscule wave 1, and minuscule wave 5 is 0.93 short of 0.618 the length of minuscule wave 1.

At 1,357 micro wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of micro wave 1. This target should be met within the week.

Draw a channel about micro wave 3 using Elliott’s first channeling technique. Expect upwards movement for submicro wave (4) to find resistance at the upper edge of the channel. Expect submicro wave (5) to end either midway within the channel or to find support at the lower edge.

When subminuette wave iii is complete the following correction for subminuette wave iv should last about one session and may not move back into subminuette wave i price terrotory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,441.48.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th May, 2013

Last week’s analysis of gold expected downwards movement. We have seen some downwards movement, but before price moved lower a breach of 1,485.49 invalidated the hourly wave count.

Price remains below the invalidation point on the daily wave count. I have adjusted the wave count to see better proportions within this third wave. This affects targets.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Last week’s analysis saw upwards movement from the low at 1,321.86 as a fourth wave at minuette degree. This now looks too much out of proportion for the daily chart; it no longer has the right look. I have moved the degree of labeling for this correction up one degree.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed its middle.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i, ii and iii are complete. Minute wave iv is most likely complete.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: minuette wave (iii) has no Fibonacci ratio to minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 3.91 longer than 0.236 the length of minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) is slightly truncated.

At 1,261 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minute wave v and either of iii or i.

Draw a channel about minor wave 3 using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minute waves ii and iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low of minute wave iii. Expect minute wave v to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minor wave 3 should be over and minor wave 4 should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

If minute wave iv continues further it may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Draw a small parallel channel about minute wave iv. Draw the first trend line from the truncated end of minute wave iii to the low of minuette wave (b). Place a parallel copy upon the high of minuette wave (a). This channel shows where price found support and resistance during the upwards movement of minute wave iv very nicely. Copy this channel over to the hourly chart.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The higher green trend line is the lower edge of the channel copied over from the daily chart. Create another parallel copy and place it upon the low of submineutte wave i downwards. This third trend line shows where price is finding support over the last couple of days. When this trend line is breached by downwards movement I will have more confidence in the target here.

Within minute wave iv there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Minuette wave (b) subdivides into a combination: flat – X – zigzag.

Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: subminuette wave iii has no Fibonacci ratio to subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.87 longer than 0.382 the length of subminuette wave iii.

Ratios within subminuette wave iii of minute wave (c) are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is just 0.04 short of equality with micro wave 1.

Ratios within micro wave 3 of subminuette wave iii of minuette wave (c) are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 0.34 short of 0.618 the length of submicro wave (3).

Within the new downwards trend ratios are:

There is no Fibonacci ratio between submicro waves a and c within minuette wave (ii).

Within subminuette wave i there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between micro waves 1, 3 and 5.

Ratios within micro wave 3 are: submicro wave (3) has no Fibonacci ratio to submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 0.12 short of equality with submicro wave (3).

Within subminuette wave ii there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Ratios within micro wave C are: submicro wave (3) is 1.95 longer than 1.618 the length of submicro wave (1), and submicro wave (5) is 1.13 longer than equality in length with submicro wave (1).

At 1,416 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This target should be met about mid next week (or earlier).

If subminuette wave ii continues further it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,479.05.

If this wave count is invalidated with upwards movement then it may be minute wave iv moving higher as a double zigzag or double combination. The invalidation point on the hourly chart would move up to the same point as on the daily chart at 1,555.16.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st May, 2013

Last week’s analysis expected price to continue to rise to a short term target at 1,451. Price did move higher but has exceeded the target by $34.49. The channel on the hourly chart has remained very useful. While price continued higher it remained within the channel. With this channel now clearly breached I expect the upwards correction is now over and the downwards trend has resumed.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed the middle of it.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete and minute wave iii is nearing its end.

At 1,273 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. Within minute wave iii at 1,284 minuette wave (v) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) I expect we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (iii) or (i).

We may now draw a channel about minute wave iii using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (ii) and (iv), then place a parallel copy upon the low of minuette wave (iii). Expect minuette wave (v) to end midway within this channel most likely, or to find support at the lower edge if it gets down there. When this channel is breached by subsequent upwards movement then minute wave iii should be over and minute wave iv should be underway.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

When minute wave iii is complete then the following correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minute wave iii minuette wave iv may have ended during the last week, $34.49 above the target but well within allowable limits. Price has remained well below the invalidation point at 1,540.24; this fourth wave has not entered the first wave price territory.

Because this correction subdivides as a triple zigzag it cannot continue further. If my analysis of this as a triple is correct then minuette wave (iv) is over and minuette wave (v) downwards has begun.

Within the third zigzag of the triple labeled subminuette wave z there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

With the strong trend channel breach of the best fit channel containing minuette wave (iv) it looks likely that the upwards correction is over and the next wave down has begun.

So far movement from the end of minuette wave (iv) is very choppy and overlapping, suggesting a leading diagonal. The diagonal is expanding. Within the diagonal micro wave 4 should overlap micro wave 1 price territory, but may not move beyond the end of micro wave 2. Within a leading diagonal subwaves 2 and 4 must be zigzags, and subwaves 1, 3 and 5 are commonly zigzags but may also be impulses. A leading diagonal may not have a truncated fifth wave. This structure fits all rules and guidelines for a leading diagonal.

Following a leading diagonal in a first wave position we should expect a deep second wave correction. I would expect subminuette wave ii is most likely subdividing as a zigzag and may end above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of subminuette wave i at 1,468.41. At 1,474 micro wave C would reach equality in length with micro wave A.

Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated at minuette wave degree with movement above 1,485.49.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th April, 2013

Last analysis of gold expected it was likely that a fourth wave correction was over and price should move lower. However, it was also stated that without a clear five down and a new low we could not eliminate the possibility that the fourth wave correction may continue. This is what has happened. Price remains below the invalidation point at 1,540.24 and the wave count remains valid.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed the middle of it.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete and minute wave iii is nearing its end.

At 1,273 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This gives us a short term target zone of only $6 which should be met within the week.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

When minute wave iii is complete then the following correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

There are thirteen possible corrective structures. This is the crux of the difficulty with Elliott wave analysis. Which structure will unfold? When is it over?

I have looked at several different possibilities for this fourth wave correction and each possibility concludes that it cannot be over. I expect some more upwards movement.

The best fit in terms of subdivisions is a rare triple zigzag structure.

Within the first zigzag of the triple, subminuette wave w, micro wave C is 1.69 longer than equality with micro wave A.

Within the first subminuette wave x there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Within the second zigzag of the triple, subminuette wave y, there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Within the second subminuette wave x there is no Fibonacci ratio between micro waves A and C.

Subminuette wave z is incomplete. At 1,451 micro wave C within subminuette wave z would reach equality in length with micro wave A.

We may draw a best fit parallel channel about minuette wave (iv). So far most movement is contained within this channel, only the first subminuette wave x overshoots the channel. When this channel is clearly and strongly breached by downwards movement we shall have an indication that minuette wave (iv) is over and minuette wave (v) is underway.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated at minute wave degree with movement above 1,540.24.

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th April, 2013

I am reverting back to my original gold wave count. Targets for that wave count have been breached so are recalculated.

This wave count expects that downwards movement is a third wave. The structure is incomplete. It needs further downwards to go. Along the way we shall see a series of fourth wave corrections.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This daily chart focuses on the new downwards trend of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) and (2) are complete. Intermediate wave (3) is underway and may have just passed the middle of it.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 1 and 2 are complete and minor wave 3 may have just passed the middle of it.

Within minor wave 3 minute waves i and ii are complete and minute wave iii is nearing its end.

At 1,279 minuette wave (v) within minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Because there is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) it is more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio between minuette wave (v) and either of (i) or (iii).

At 1,273 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This gives us a short term target zone of only $6 which should be met within the week.

At 1,232 intermediate wave (3) would reach 4.236 the length of intermediate wave (1).

At 1,151 primary wave C would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave A.

When minute wave iii is complete then the following correction for minute wave iv may not move back into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,555.16.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart 2013

This structure shows movement within minute wave iii. We may draw a parallel channel about this downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette wave (i) (just off to the left of the chart, you see it on the daily chart) to minuette wave (iii). Place a parallel copy on the high of micro wave 2 within minuette wave (iii) to contain all movement.

Minuette wave (iv) looks like it may be over as a single zigzag correction ending midway within the channel. I would expect minuette wave (v) to end either midway within the channel, or to find support about the lower edge.

Without a new low and a clear new five down on the hourly chart we must accept the possibility that minuette wave (iv) may not be over and may continue further sideways as a flat or double. If it does it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,540.24.

Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th April, 2013

**Edit: This wave count has been clearly invalidated. I will use my prior wave count found here.

Sometimes it takes someone pointing out a different way of seeing things in order for one to remove one’s blinkers. I was having difficulty with my count for gold, and maybe I have a bias towards trying to always see extended third waves. Either way a most helpful comment from a viewer at just the right time leads me to rework my count for gold.

I will not publish my previous wave count, but I will retain it just in case price starts to fall with an increase in momentum.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold monthly 2013

I expect gold is within a large cycle degree fourth wave correction. When this first zigzag structure is complete I will have an alternate wave count which sees it as just primary wave A within a flat for cycle wave IV. When the zigzag is complete this main wave count will see cycle wave IV as complete.

I will not cover all the Fibonacci ratios within this monthly chart again, they may be seen here.

This chart is viewed using a semi-log scale.

I have drawn a best fit parallel channel about this movement. The first trend line is drawn from the highs of cycle waves I to III, then a parallel copy is placed upon the low of primary wave 2 within cycle wave III. At this time price has found a little support about the lower edge of this channel.

I have also drawn a channel about the zigzag for cycle wave IV. The first trend line is drawn from the all time high, the start of primary wave A, to the end of primary wave B. Then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of primary wave A. I would expect primary wave C to be very likely to find strong support about the lower edge of this channel.

At 1,398 primary wave C would reach equality in length with primary wave A.

Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 730.4.

Gold daily 2013

This daily chart shows the structure of primary wave C.

Within primary wave C intermediate waves (1) through to (3) may be complete.

Intermediate wave (3) is 14.86 longer than 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1), a 6.9% variation which is acceptable.

Intermediate wave (3) shows an increase in momentum as indicated by MACD.

Ratios within intermediate wave (3) are: minor wave 3 is just 2.66 longer than equality with minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 is 4.99 short of 0.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 3 there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minute waves i, iii and v.

Within intermediate wave (3) minor waves 2 and 4 show perfect alternation; minor wave 2 was a relatively deep zigzag correction and minor wave 4 was a relatively shallow flat correction.

Minor wave 5 may have ended midway within the parallel channel containing intermediate wave (3), a common place for fifth waves to end.

We need to see this channel breached clearly by upwards movement to have confidence that intermediate wave (3) is over and intermediate wave (4) is underway.

Within intermediate wave (4) minor waves A and B may be complete, or this may only be the start of minor wave A. At 1,635 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A and intermediate wave (4) would reach to just above the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (3).

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,672.77.