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A new all time high in the very first hour of Friday’s session confirmed that the upwards trend remains.

The Elliott wave target has not been met yet. Members are advised that the trend remains the same until proven otherwise.

Summary: The trend remains up. The best and safest way to make money in a trending market is to keep trades with the trend.

The classic technical analysis chart is very bullish. The daily chart is also overall bullish. The next target is at 2,614 – 2,616. Thereafter, if no deep pullback eventuates there, the next target is at 2,763.

Stops on long positions may now be pulled up to just below the last gap; if it is a breakaway gap, it should remain open for a long time. This price point is at 2,562.36.

Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade. If trading a correction against the larger trend, then reduce risk to 1-3% of equity.

Last monthly and weekly charts are here. Last historic analysis video is here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count has strong support from another bullish signal from On Balance Volume at the weekly chart level. While classic analysis is still very bullish for the short term, there will be corrections along the way up. Indicators are extreme and there is considerable risk to the downside still.

As a Grand Super Cycle wave comes to an end, weakness may develop and persist for very long periods of time (up to three years is warned as possible by Lowry’s for the end of a bull market), so weakness in volume may be viewed in that larger context.

Within minute wave v, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,417.35.

The next reasonable correction should be for intermediate wave (4). When it arrives, it should last over two months in duration, and it may find support about the lower edge of this best fit channel. The correction may be relatively shallow, a choppy overlapping consolidation, at the weekly chart level.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

To see details of the whole of primary wave 3 so far see the analysis here.

Minor wave 3 may still be incomplete. This wave count is the main wave count because it has better proportion in terms of Elliott wave. When minor wave 4 does show up, it may last longer than just three days (minor wave 2 only lasted three days). A correction at minor degree would most likely show up at the weekly chart level.

This main wave count expects that minuette wave (v) is extending. Within minuette wave (v), so far subminuette waves i and now ii may be complete. Within subminuette wave iii, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,547.92.

Minuette wave (v) may end about the upper edge of the green Elliott channel.

When minor wave 3 is again a complete structure, then minor wave 4 may be expected to be a relatively shallow correction and last only a few days.

HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Subminuette wave i will subdivide as a five wave impulse. Subminuette wave ii may have been a very quick sharp zigzag.

Subminuette wave iii has exhibited a strong increase in momentum beyond that seen for subminuette wave i. When it is complete, then subminuette wave iv may not move back down into subminuette wave i price territory below 2,564.11.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that both minor waves 3 and 4 could be over.

My initial judgement was to label this as an alternate because of the brevity and shallowness of minor wave 4. This does not look right. However, there is still good alternation and good proportion with minor wave 2, which lasted only three days and was a zigzag. Here, minor wave 4 may have also lasted only three days and may have been a flat correction.

The first target is the same as it has been now for some time. A new second target is added at minor degree. If price reaches the first target and the structure is incomplete, or if price just keeps rising through it, then we may use the second target.

We should always assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise. If this wave count is correct, then the low on Thursday was another opportunity to join the upwards trend.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,547.92.

This alternate wave count now does not differ from the main wave count in the expected direction nor much for the first target. The biggest difference will be in how deep and long lasting the next consolidation or pullback may be expected to be. This alternate expects an intermediate degree correction, which should last several weeks and may be up to about three months, whereas the main wave count only expects a small consolidation to last a few days.

HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Minute wave v may have been an ending contracting diagonal, which may have ended minor wave 3.

Minor wave 4, lasting only three days, may be an expanded flat correction. On the five minute chart, the downwards wave labelled minute wave c will subdivide as a five wave impulse with quick shallow fourth wave corrections at its end.

Have some confidence in this wave count if tomorrow sees another all time high. If that happens, then price is telling us that the trend remains up.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

At the weekly chart level, the technicals this week look even more bullish than last week.

Longer term divergence with price and RSI does not appear to be very reliable; it has again disappeared. Like divergence with VIX and the AD line, divergence with price and RSI appears to be more reliable for the short term when it is clear and strong.

This chart is fully bullish. There is nothing bearish yet here.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Bullish: Volume, the last two daily candlesticks, ADX, On Balance Volume, MACD, and widening Bollinger Bands.

Extreme indicators: RSI and Stochastics. But these are not yet exhibiting the type of divergence that gives a strong warning of a trend change. They are not particularly good timing tools of a trend change either; they only sound warnings.

The trend is up. Use the breakaway gap for stops now.

Manage risk carefully. Invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

VIX daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

Mid term divergence between price and VIX will be ignored; it is more often unreliable. For Friday price moved higher and volatility exhibited a normal decline. The rise in price has support from declining volatility.

BREADTH – AD LINE

AD Line daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

With the last all time high for price, the AD line also made a new all time high. Up to the last high for price there was support from rising market breadth.

There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

Another upwards day comes with a new all time high for both price and market breadth. The rise in price has support from rising market breadth. This is bullish.

At the end of this week, small caps have failed to make a new all time high but mid caps have made a new all time high. So far small caps are issuing a small warning that there is now some weakness within market breadth.

DOW THEORY

At the end of this week, only the Dow Jones Transportation Average has not made new all time highs. The continuation of the bull market has not this week been confirmed. However, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is not far off its last all time high. If it does make a new all time high, then this analysis will be totally and fully bullish.

Failure to confirm an ongoing bull market should absolutely not be read as the end of a bull market. For that, Dow Theory would have to confirm new lows.

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 17,883.56.

DJT: 7,029.41.

S&P500: 2,083.79.

Nasdaq: 5,034.41.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory are here.

Published @ 07:19 p.m. EST on 21st October, 2017.