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Upwards movement was expected again. A green daily candlestick was printed, but it is technically an inside day with no new high.

Summary: Expect the trend to continue while price remains above 2,182.30. While upwards movement continues, the next target is at 2,227. A new low below 2,182.30 would indicate the expected pullback has finally arrived, and the target will be support about 2,120 and the lilac trend line.

Last monthly chart for the main wave count is here.

Last weekly chart is here.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave V must subdivide as a five wave structure. At 2,500 it would reach equality in length with cycle wave I. This is the most common Fibonacci ratio for a fifth wave for this market, so this target should have a reasonable probability.

Cycle wave V within Super Cycle wave (V) should exhibit internal weakness. At its end, it should exhibit strong multiple divergence at highs.

Within cycle wave V, primary waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Primary wave 3 may have begun. Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. So far within it intermediate wave (1) may be either complete today or very close to it.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 2,083.79.

Intermediate wave (2) may find support close to the lilac trend line, which may also be close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1).

At 2,473 primary wave 3 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. This Fibonacci ratio is chosen for this target calculation because it fits with the higher target at 2,500.

The maroon channel is a best fit. The lower edge may provide support.

HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 hourly 2016
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Both hourly charts are the same up to the end of minor wave 2. Thereafter, this first hourly chart sees minor waves 3 and 4 complete. There is perfect alternation between the zigzag of minor wave 2 and the triangle of minor wave 4.

Minor wave 3 is slightly shorter than minor wave 1. This limits minor wave 5 to no longer than equality in length with minor wave 3 at 2,213.03.

The final fifth wave of minute wave v may be over, or it may continue higher. There will be no indication of a trend change while price remains above the start of minute wave v at 2,194.51.

A new low below 2,182.30 would invalidate the alternate below and provide some confidence in this main wave count.

If intermediate wave (1) is over at yesterday’s high, then the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio would be at 2,130.

ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 hourly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

What if minor wave 3 is not over? The area labelled as a triangle for the main hourly wave count could also be a series of overlapping first and second waves.

At 2,227 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

This wave count sees the middle of a third wave particularly weak; this is not common. The larger context of a fifth wave at cycle and Super Cycle degrees may see persistent unusual weakness though, so this wave count is possible.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

There is a wave count that fits for the Dow Industrials that sees an imminent trend change. It relies upon an ending diagonal, but that idea will not fit well for the S&P.

What if an impulse upwards is almost complete? The large corrections labelled primary waves 2 and 4 do look like they should be labelled at the same degree as each other, so that gives this wave count the right look.

Primary wave 4 ends within primary wave 2 price territory, but it does not overlap primary wave 1. Primary wave 1 has its high at 2,057 and primary wave 4 has its low at 2,083.79. The rule is met.

There is alternation between the double combination of primary wave 2 and the double zigzag of primary wave 4. Even though both are labelled as multiples W-X-Y, these are different structures belonging to different groups of corrective structures.

Primary wave 3 is shorter than primary wave 1. This limits primary wave 5 to no longer than equality with primary wave 3 at 2,285.53.

At 2,208 primary wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of primary wave 3. There is no Fibonacci ratio between primary waves 1 and 3. It is likely that primary wave 5 will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio. If price continues upwards through this first target, then the next target would be at 2,084 where primary wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of primary wave 1.

This wave count has good proportions. Primary wave 1 lasted a Fibonacci 34 days, primary wave 2 lasted 60 days, primary wave 3 lasted 40 days, and primary wave 4 lasted 52 days. Primary wave 5 may be more brief than primary wave 3. If it exhibits a Fibonacci duration, it may total a Fibonacci 34 days and that would see it end on the 22nd of December. If it is only a Fibonacci 21 days in duration, it may end more quickly on the 2nd of December.

The structure at the hourly chart level would be the same as for the main wave count. An impulse upwards would be completing, so for this wave count the degree of labelling would be one degree higher than the main wave count.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

DAILY CHART

DJIA daily 2016
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An ending contracting diagonal may be completing for the DJIA. This fits into the same picture as the alternate wave count for the S&P; both see a final fifth wave coming to an end very soon.

If the 1-3 trend line is overshot, then this wave count expects a reversal very quickly. These reversals are often swift and sharp.

The diagonal is contracting, so the final fifth wave is limited to no longer than equality in length with primary wave 3 at 19,488.92.

If price behaves as this wave count expects, then look out for a deep re-tracement.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A smaller range upwards week on lighter volume looks like bulls are tiring. Some downwards or sideways movement this week is a reasonable expectation.

There is no close by resistance line on On Balance Volume to stop a rise in price. There is no divergence between OBV and price to indicate weakness here.

RSI is not extreme. There is room for price to continue to rise.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Apart from declining volume and ATR, this picture looks bullish.

There is an upwards trend in place that is supported by rising strength and widening Bollinger Bands.

Stochastics is overbought, but this oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market. It does not exhibit any divergence at the daily chart level to show weakness. If divergence develops here, it would be a warning of a reversal but not a signal.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to move higher.

MACD is bullish.

Price is not at the extreme edge of Bollinger Bands.

If price moves strongly up and away from the round number pivot at 2,200, then momentum may see some increase. If price turns down tomorrow close by to the pivot, then resistance may have held. Today’s close at 2,204.72 above the pivot suggests resistance may be giving way.

A pullback will come, and it would still be typical behaviour of price to turn and find support at the lilac trend line.

There is strong divergence between highs for On Balance Volume and price, from today’s high to the prior all time high on the 15th of August at 2,194: price has made new highs, but OBV has not. This divergence is bearish, but it can persist for some time. It does not indicate a trend change here; it only indicates bulls are weak. This supports the bigger picture for the Elliott wave count.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

VIX daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There are a few instances of multi day divergence between price and inverted VIX noted here. Bearish divergence is blue. Bullish divergence is yellow. It appears so far that divergence between inverted VIX and price is again working to indicate short term movements spanning one or two days. While this seems to be working more often than not, it is not always working. As with everything in technical analysis, there is nothing that is certain. This is an exercise in probability.

No new short term divergence is noted today between price and inverted VIX. The last mid term divergence has now disappeared; both price and inverted VIX have made new highs. There is longer term divergence, but this has proven more recently to be unreliable and will not be given any weight at this stage.

BREADTH – AD LINE

AD Line daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Short term bullish and bearish divergence is again working between price and the AD line to show the direction for the following one or two days.

There is longer term divergence between price and the AD line, but like inverted VIX this has proven reasonably recently to be unreliable. It will be given no weight here.

BREADTH – MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR

AD Line daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

On the 21st August, 2015, the McClellan Oscillator reached -71.56. Price found a low the next session, 104 points below the closing price of the 21st August. This very extreme reading for the 24th August would have been a strong indicator of a low in place.

On the 11th December, 2015, the McClellan Oscillator reached -80.82. It moved lower the next session to -92.65 and price moved 19 points lower. The extreme reading of 11th December might possibly have led to an expectation of a bigger bounce than the one that occurred, and might have misled analysis into missing the strong fall from 29th December to 20th of January.

The next most recent occasion where this oscillator was extreme was the 8th January, 2016. It reached -66.25 on that date. The low was not found for seven sessions though, on the 20th January 2016, almost 110 points below the closing price of the 8th January. At the low of the 11th February, there was strong bullish divergence with price making new lows and the oscillator making substantially higher lows. This may have been a strong warning of a major low in place.

The most recent occasion of an extreme reading was -75.05 on the 2nd of November. The last low came two days later.

As an indicator of a low this is not it. It is a warning of extreme levels. The next thing to look for would be some divergence with price and this oscillator at lows. Divergence is not always seen at lows, but when it is seen it should be taken seriously. Any reading over 100 should also be taken very seriously.

This indicator will be approached with caution. It is one more piece of evidence to take into account.

The McClellan Oscillator has just reached extreme at 60 and today turned down. This does not mean price must turn here. The last time on this chart this oscillator reached 60 was on the 12th of July and price continued higher to the 15th of August before a reasonable correction began. It looks like this does not work well to indicate or warn of highs.

DOW THEORY

Major lows within the old bull market:

DJIA: 15,855.12 (15th October, 2014) – closed below on 25th August, 2015.

DJT: 7,700.49 (12th October, 2014) – closed below on 24th August, 2015.

S&P500: 1,821.61 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Nasdaq: 4,117.84 (15th October, 2014) – has not closed below this point yet.

Major highs within the bear market from November 2014:

DJIA: 17,977.85 (4th November, 2015) – closed above on 18th April, 2016.

DJT: 8,358.20 (20th November, 2015) – closed above this point on the 9th of November, 2016.

S&P500: 2,116.48 (3rd November, 2015) – closed above this point on 8th June, 2016.

Nasdaq: 5,176.77 (2nd December, 2015) – closed above this point on 1st August, 2016.

Dow Theory Conclusion: The transportations indicate an end to the prior bear market. The transportation index confirms a bull market.

This analysis is published @ 10:33 p.m. EST.