The bottom line for the S&P today:
Minute iii is very unlikely to be over. It has not moved far enough above minute wave i to allow room for downwards movement of minute iv to remain above minute i price territory.
IBM and Netflix getting hit after they reported earnings after the close.
IBM offering ZERO guidance going forward.
IBM- there is a walking dead man if ever there was one.
They (along with 3M) are the king of (idiotic) stock buybacks. A one-way bet as a leaps short target….
Earnings and Revenue reported so far from Co’s reporting are horrible and will stay horrible.
But the spin Dr’s will make very bad sound good. Just open your eye’s (read the reports yourselves) and tune these talking heads out.
Talking heads saying “Bad number don’t really matter”. “Going higher”!
The large impulse of cycle wave c (see weekly main wave count) was interesting.
It subdivides beautifully as an impulse. There are some amazingly close Fibonacci ratios within it.
But the third wave was weaker than the first and had lighter volume than the first. The fifth wave was weaker still, lighter momentum (MACD, daily and weekly time frames) and lighter volume.
Sometimes the S&P exhibits impulses like that.
We may see this again for minor wave 5.
Minute iii may be weaker (and maybe also even shorter) than minute i, then minute v may be weaker (and maybe shorter) still.
This DCB may limp to a slow end, before a downwards explosion.
But I don’t ‘think it’s done yet.
As long as the third wave within an impulse is not the shortest, the EW rule will be met.
I would add too, that as long as the third wave is not the weakest (lightest volume, weakest momentum) then it would be acceptable.
I do not see any issues with momentum. Firstly, as I understand it, momentum like psychological and societal influences / patterns of EW are guidelines not rules. Secondly, momentum is always a relative measurement. Primary wave five should have less momentum than Primary 3. But minor 3 or 5 certainly do not need to demonstrate more momentum than a primary wave. That mixed with the fact that we are at the final stages of this Primary wave 2, I would expect momentum to be diminishing relative to what we saw earlier in the wave, like early March. That is why we have the negative divergences in MACD at the 4 hour and daily levels. I hope that is clear.
Yes, crystal clear. And I agree. I would be expecting a decline overall in momentum, and divergence at the end to be singular if not double.
My comment was more along the lines of it doesn’t matter if this small third wave shows weakness.
I can’t see minute iii over yet. One more day perhaps?
The target for this to end just above 2,116.48 will remain the same today.
I’m holding onto my buy position. I will pull my stop up to just above todays low.
I note a lot of members jumping in early with short positions. Just so that the less experienced members know, this is not my recommendation.
This membership has a wide range of trading and market experience. For newer and less experienced members, the members who comment here regularly (like Verne, Olga, Rodney, Joseph et al) are VERY experienced. They know how to manage risk.
The rest of us, myself included (I’ve been analysing for much longer than I’ve been trading) we should not try to anticipate the high. We should wait for some confirmation of a trend change and then jump in short.
Trying to pick highs and lows often does not end well.
it does make me somewhat nervous to see the amount of shorting going on here, what if I’m wrong guys?
If you are, we’ll just make some green on the long side! 🙂
I am so hoping we get a jump outside the BB tomorrow.
If we do, I for one would conclude that not only are you right, but that you are right on the money!
To be honest I would personally never base my trading decisions solely on your analysis Lara (which I know is what you prefer), and I think that is the case for the other people you mentioned.
I am playing with house money and know the risks only too well – people new(ish) to trading and solely taking trading decisions based on the analysis here should definitely wait for some confirmation of a trend change or be mentally prepared (and financially able) to lose your shirt picking a top.
Your analysis is the best available imho – as is your lack of bias. If the count turns out wrong then my own conclusions are also wrong. Like Verne says – we’ll move on and get Bullish!! 🙂
And yes, trading decisions should not be based solely on my analysis. It is up to each and every member to do their own due diligence.
There are bullish engulfing candles today in both DJI and SPX and even more remarkably, they are coming with price pinned right against the upper BB. This means there is an excellent chance we will blow through the upper band tomorrow in a final blow-off top, exactly the kind of topping process I like to see. I will be gladly selling by 209.5 calls to some more eager beaver tomorrow should things proceed as expected… 🙂
For me, when I entered the first of my current positions, I stated I thought I may be early and expected a high probability of seeing 2100. I stated, “I can take the heat if we move to 2100.” Well, now I am taking heat on those positions. If you are wrong on the count Lara and we make a new all time high, I will take the loss followed by a review of the situation and strategy planning. That is always a possibility. I also understand the mutability, flexibility and adjustment of Elliot Wave counts.
But I am fully convinced your count is correct at the level I need it to be. We are completing a primary wave 2 and intermediate wave 5. All the evidence outside of Elliott Wave TA is pointing to a top of some sort happening between here are 2100+. Virtually all TA I do is confirming evidence to your EW count. I have yet to find a way to trade that eliminates risk without also eliminating reward.
The end of second degree waves and b waves are the most taxing emotionally. We are in it now.
Finally, perhaps I should not be so open with my strategies / moves etc if it might unduly influence others. I have no problem tailoring my posts to be without any trading information. I only do it because others have and it has proved helpful to me. But Olga hit it on the head. in my words, If a person is willing to even think of blaming someone, anyone, or any thing for their failed trades, they should not be trading at all. Period. It takes maturity to be successful in all areas of life including trading. I own my choices and decisions, no one or no thing else.
I also do not like making you, Lara, feel uncomfortable. So, if it is best for me to curtail my posts in general or in specific to trading, please let me know. I will take no offense. Lately I have been thinking of contacting you anyways in order to confirm that my posts are helpful in some way and wanted. I know some of my posts tend to get a bit lengthy.
Finally, I am going to pull a ‘Joe Namath’ (you must have read my post from a few weeks back to know what I am talking about or you must know of Joe Namath). This market is about to take a dive. This bear market is about to show it teeth. I guarantee it.
Looking forward to tonight’s count. Best to all.
No worries at all Rodney, and please don’t curtail your posts. I am sure they are most helpful to a great many members, and me also.
I am naturally very cautious. And this is a really big call to make, for my own trading, for you all, and professionally. And so I am naturally nervous about getting this right.
I keep looking at charts and indicators to see, what if I’m wrong? Am I overlooking something I don’t want to see? And I keep coming up with more indication of weakness in this upwards trend.
Anyway, I really just wanted to post a warning to the new members we have here. And I’ll do that again from time to time.
There is no filter on who can join this membership. And we have new members all the time.
I don’t want new inexperienced members to think I am some kind of guru or holy grail (oh goodness no!) and I don’t want them to be following the high risk trades of the very experienced members here in making themselves; following to learn is great. But don’t try it at home folks!
You guys know what you’re doing, go for it. Share all you like please. Just know that when I post a warning who it is directed at (not you) and why.
we know you arent a guru,, gurus dont surf !
Brilliant. I’ll keep that one. “Guru’s don’t surf”. LOL
anybody short Netflix? if so,, ca-ching!!
Netflix sucks… all the movies suck. Only good if you view the shows they make or you want to binge on an old TV series.
I don’t know why people still pay for that service… I am thinking of cancelling.
Have they reported earnings yet?
Yes… I think. Lower membership.
Ouch! I really like Reed Hastings but I think he bit off a bit more that he can properly masticate. The move to in-house productions was brilliant ( I really enjoyed Marco Polo but not too much else) but the overhead for their library is crippling the bottom line…if they start loosing subscribers, it’s lights out…!
SPX Volume massively lower than Friday:
543.315 Million Today.
Yes, but Friday was options expiration
A close above DJI 18,000.00 is positive for the short term bullish case. I will holding onto SPY calls if we pull it off…
Another ending diagonal?
An overshoot of the 1-3 trend-line tomorrow would be picture perfect!!!
What a finish!! Right at the round numbers!!
On the outside chance we are seeing a terminal wave up, expect an immediate reversal to the downside with a red candle today. If that happens, we’re done…
Bid on 209.5 calls at 0.82 and getting close…!
Slight penetration once again of upper BB in both DJI and SPX…
O.K. We need to get some upward momentum going for minuette three. I would ideally like to cash out those 209.5 calls today and ride minute five up the next day or two
DJI actually hit 18,000.00 this morning…a close above it today will I think take us at least to Lara’s SPX targets…
I am going to assume we just got done with minuette three, weak though it was. Now minuette four down and five up should complete minute three…
I dunno…on the 15 minute chart that could still be only minuette one of minute three up. As someone noted, the implications would be a higher move than I think is likely…by the same token, it just seems too brief a duration for a complete minute three, putting us now in a minute four…
I guess if we see really strong movement up going forward the case for minuette three up would be enhanced…confirming a just completed minuette two
Given the length of minute wave 1 hope minute waves 3 and 5 are short or we are going to make new highs if this is a impulse. More breathing room if could turn out to be ending contracting diagonal.
I count a complete 5 up from this mornings low on the 5 min chart.
Usually not good at this… but this looks very clear to me atm.
It has been a tough weekend. I was all mixed up on my counts earlier this morning. I am not certain of where we are in Lara’s count. Until late last week she has been pointing to April 19th.. That looks right. I am not sure we can make it to 2116 or not. If we can make it to 2100 I am thinking it is close enough to allow a truncation of 16 points (0.76%).
What perplexes me is that even though the SPX is currently up 0.5% and VIX is down 0.3%, UVXY and TVIX are down almost 10% each. It seems relatively disproportionate. TVIX is way outside of its lower Bollinger Band.
Verne, I’d appreciate your thoughts and comments as well as from others. Is this a gift fire sale? Or, is it a warning? I am thinking gift.
Perhaps people jumping into UVXY too early getting squeezed out? Or maybe people shorting it?
The usual sign we are nearing a top is when UVXY and S&P go up together. I’m also viewing it as a gift atm but we need to be careful as it might drop through the floor in the low probability case that we make new ATH.
I am thinking a lot of long stop loss orders are being run. It is just under 4.00 that this run started. A place many early buyers set their stop to match their loss appetite. Short sellers would be less I think because the maximum potential gain is limited to 3.75 points or so. That is a lot of risk with a limited reward.
So I am thinking stop loss orders are being tripped. Would we call this a bottoming price capitulation?
Probably. I like to wait for a second green candle after a new 52 week low to trade it to the upside. I would keep powder dry on UVXY a wee bit bit longer… 🙂
VIX measures short term (30 days) price expectation. UVXY is supposed to act like a VIX futures (dervivative of a derivative!) measuring longer term price expectation. That, in my view still does not account for the huge price discrepancy we see in how the instruments trade. While one can surmise the current price variation suggests greater concern about near term price action than longer term, my own view is that UVXY has a tremendous amount of short interest which makes it much more volatile to both the downside and upside.
Looks like we are on the move with either minuette three or minute five up…massive round number resistance just ahead…will happily take a buck for those 209.5 SPY calls….
Both DJI and SPX hugging upper BB band but sedately trading below it. The ultimate reversal signal would be to see a break from a triangle formation that gaps above the upper BB with a nice doji…
Lower lows on 5 min chart after getting near the bear market trend line (today 2091.27)… any chance alternate Bear count may be in play?
Lower Channel line was also penetrated this morning.
We may have had a very brief minute three up; looks like another penultimate triangle formation in the works and we all know what that means…
Unlikely minute three over so quickly so we must have just competed minuette one up, and after a mild correction should see some increase in momentum up for minuette three up. Other possibility is minute four underway…rolling remaining calls to 209.50 strike @ 0.65 per contract…
Exiting half SPY 208 calls. Modest 30% gain…some consolation for UVXY calls expiring worthless on Friday… 🙂
Looks like wave 3 up is underway. UVXY and TVIX are taking a bath today going to new 52 week lows.
My mistake, I should have said the final 5th wave is underway.
UVXY and TVIX are not only taking a bath, they are getting a hair cut. Time to get the wagons in position to be loaded up.
Filled another wagon. That makes 4 out of 8 or 1/2 of my final & full short position acquired.
I will be looking to fill another 1/8 today at these fire sale prices.
By the way, where is everyone today? I am feeling all alone. I hope the issues with the web site are not interfering.
I’m here…sitting on my longs for another 10 points…then moving short
Congratulations are in order. Way to go!
Right on both counts I think; we should be in minute three of minor five…any move below 2073.65 today would be a wrap…
Yeah – I think Minute ii went lower this morning so I agree that we are possibly now in Minute iii of Minor 5, albeit it isn’t exactly acting wave 3ish atm.
I’ve also started scaling in – I’m at about 40% now. Just in case we get any truncation suprises! 🙂
A move below 2073.65 could possibly mean Minute ii has not finished (poss expanded flat).
We must be getting close to knowing one way or another!
Are we close enough that a truncation will not be considered abnormal ?
Lara would be best to answer that but imo it would still be abnormal right now.
But… the fact that a huge 3rd might be around the corner pulls price the opposite way like a magnet so i’m expecting a suprise to the downside sooner rather than later.
It is very unlikely imho that the market will simply let people jump on the train so you have to do a little front running in order to get positioned at a good entry.
Agree with your comment about front running.
Perhaps a reason this very low degree third wave is not acting 3rdish is because the market is exhausted to the upside. We have been experiencing extreme sentiment and momentum indicators for a while now.
OPEC no-go meeting today for freezing the oil production output instigated a 5% drop in oil. Will be interesting to see how SPY and IWM react as I believe they’re the biggest holders of Energy stocks …
I am having trouble logging in. I get a 404 error page and other times a 403 error page.
Thanks for letting me know.
Cesar’s working on it.
Everything seems to be working fine for me now. Thank you Lara and Cesar.
Dow 95 Points down in the futures. Surely they are trying to pull bears in for one final shorts squeeze. Just what is needed to get the market up to Lara’s expected levels
That gap down in futures actually is a bit worrisome. I have always expected that the turn in the market was going to be sudden, unexpected, and catch everyone off guard. It is quite interesting to me that even those of us who are quite bearish are now expecting further upward movement. I have also learned to pay very close attention to upper BB penetrations and we saw the first one in years in SPX last week. I doubt we will see a third penetration so that means higher movement will probably track the underside as we complete the impulse up. At any rate, this gap down in futures is I think the first shot across the bow to prepare us for what is coming, if not already here….
Hi, Lara, can’t seem to access the Technical Analysis page? Is this another virus problem?
Is anyone else having problems?
We have been having some big problems with our websites this weekend. Our hosting service engineers have been looking into it.
I think the problem should be fixed now (Sunday morning EST).
Are you still having problems?
I’m clicking about the place and so far so good for me…
Anyone still having problems please let me know
I am still having the 403 issue at this time with the Tech analysis page. FWIW it works on Firefox but still seems to be an issue on IE and Chrome. Go figure…
Thanks Rwatt, that is useful information.
Cesar’s still working on it.
Thanks for the great analysis again this week Lara!
I pulled this definition from Stockcharts.com for the bullish percent index.
“The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals within an index. ”
It is not the number of bullish traders as mentioned in the video.
It may be that you are making a distinction without a difference so to speak. After all, the measure of over 70% BPI being an overbought market, and under 30% being oversold is really just another way of assessing the number bullish traders versus the number of bearish ones, so Lara’s comment is actually quite accurate.
Thanks for pointing that out Verne. 🙂
When I first started looking at Bullish Percent Index on Stockcharts.com, I thought it measured bullish traders versus bearish ones directly. I would rename the index if it were up to me.
I thought it did that too Thomas.
Thanks for pointing that out to me.
Yes. I’d rename that index too if it was up to me.
Not a bad idea. Every time I look at the P&F charts from which the index is derived it makes my head spin…give me a simple line chart and I am happy…! 🙂
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