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A slight new high fits the bull and alternate bear Elliott wave counts best.

The situation short term is slightly clearer. There will only be one bear Elliott wave count now.

Summary: This is still a bear market rally until proven otherwise. The target remains at 2,126. In the short term, a new high tomorrow above 2,032.59 would indicate a fifth wave up is underway. A new low below 2,019.06 is expected and would indicate more sideways movement for a further two days before the short term upwards trend resumes.

To see last published monthly charts click here.

To see how each of the bull and bear wave counts fit within a larger time frame see the Grand Supercycle Analysis.

To see detail of the bull market from 2009 to the all time high on weekly charts, click here.

I have published the bull market wave counts first for a long time, waiting for S&P and Nasdaq to confirm my modified Dow Theory before calling a bear market. Due to a lack of confidence in bull wave counts at this stage, I will stop doing that. The bear wave count will be published first. The bull wave count will continue to be published until it is invalidated by price.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEAR ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

S&P 500 monthly bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

What if the big flat correction labelled super cycle wave (w) or (a) was only the first three in a larger correction?

This bear wave count fits better than the bull with the even larger picture, super cycle analysis found here. It is also well supported by regular technical analysis at the monthly chart level.

There are two ideas presented in this chart: a huge flat correction or a double flat / double combination. The huge flat is more likely. They more commonly have deep B waves than combinations have deep X waves (in my experience).

A huge flat correction would be labelled super cycle (a)-(b)-(c). It now expects a huge super cycle wave (c) to move substantially below the end of (a) at 666.79. C waves can behave like third waves. This idea expects a devastating bear market, and a huge crash to be much bigger than the last two bear markets on this chart.

The second idea is a combination which would be labelled super cycle (w)-(x)-(y). The second structure for super cycle wave (y) would be a huge sideways repeat of super cycle wave (a) for a double flat, or a quicker zigzag for a double combination. It is also possible (least likely) that price could drift sideways in big movements for over 10 years for a huge triangle for super cycle wave (y).

Importantly, there is no lower invalidation point for this wave count. That means there is no lower limit to this bear market.

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 1 may be complete and may have lasted 19 weeks, two short of a Fibonacci 21. So far primary wave 2 is in its 23rd week. It looks unlikely to continue for another 11 weeks to total a Fibonacci 34, so it may end in about two to five weeks time. This would still give reasonable proportion between primary waves 1 and 2. Corrections (particularly more time consuming flat corrections) do have a tendency to be longer lasting than impulses.

Primary wave 2 may be unfolding as an expanded or running flat. Within primary wave 2, intermediate wave (A) was a deep zigzag (which will also subdivide as a double zigzag). Intermediate wave (B) fits perfectly as a zigzag and is a 1.21 length of intermediate wave (A). This is within the normal range for a B wave of a flat of 1 to 1.38.

Intermediate wave (C) is likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of intermediate wave (A) at 2,116.48 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat. However, price may find very strong resistance at the final bear market trend line. This line may hold price down and it may not be able to avoid a truncation. A rare running flat may occur before a very strong third wave down.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 2,134.72.

Only one bear wave count will be published today. The prior main bear wave count now has a big problem with proportions and no longer has the right look. It is discarded.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (A) fits nicely as a single or double zigzag.

Intermediate wave (B) fits perfectly as a zigzag. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves A and C.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It is not unfolding as an ending diagonal, so it must be unfolding as a more common impulse.

The short / mid term target for minor wave 3 is exactly the same as the short / mid term target for the bull wave count. A-B-C of a zigzag and 1-2-3 of an impulse both subdivide 5-3-5. The labelling within this upwards movement of each subdivision is the same for both wave counts.

Price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio at 2,030. It may find some resistance there.

Minor wave 4 downwards may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 1,930.68.

Intermediate wave (C) does not have to move above the end of intermediate wave (A) at 2,116.48, but it is likely to do so to avoid a truncation. If it is truncated and primary wave 2 is a rare running flat, then the truncation is not likely to be very large. As soon as price is very close to 2,116.48 this wave count looks at the possibility of a trend change.

The next wave down for this wave count would be a strong third wave at primary wave degree.

At 2,126 minor wave 5 would be about equal in length with minor wave 4. This target may be recalculated as minor wave 4 continues sideways, so the target may change. The target is given as an indication only, would see price find resistance at either the cyan or lilac lines, and would see intermediate wave (C) avoid a truncation.

HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 daily bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 4 is most likely to continue sideways to last longer and be better in proportion with minor wave 2.

Minor wave 2 lasted a Fibonacci five days and was a shallow 0.329 expanded flat. Given the guideline of alternation, minor wave 4 may be either a combination as labelled or a triangle.

It is likely to be more shallow than minor wave 2, so that it ends within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Minute wave iv has its range from 2,009.13 to 1,969.25. Both the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci ratios of minor wave 3 lie within this range. The 0.146 Fibonacci ratio (not shown, MotiveWave does not have this option) is at 2,000 exactly, also within the range. This is the target for minor wave 4 to end.

Overall more sideways movement in a consolidation would be expected for a further two days most likely, with an upwards breakout when it is done. Confidence may be had in this short term outlook with a new low below 2,019.06. At that stage, the alternate below would be invalidated.

If price keeps rising tomorrow above 2,032.59, then minute wave x would be over twice the length of minute wave w. This would reduce the probability of this main hourly wave count in favour of the alternate below.

ALTERNATE HOURLY CHART

S&P 500 daily bear 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

If minor wave 4 is over already, there is inadequate alternation with minor wave 2. Both would be expanded flat corrections. Minor wave 2 would be deeper at 0.329 and minor wave 4 would be very shallow at 0.107.

Minor wave 2 would have lasted a Fibonacci five days and minor wave 4 would have lasted only one day. The proportions do not look right on the daily chart.

If price rises above 2,032.59 tomorrow, then this alternate may be correct. The main wave count would remain valid but would reduce in probability in favour of this alternate.

Minor wave 5 should then be expected to be fairly likely to be underway.

Within minor wave 5, minute wave iv may not move into minute wave 1 price territory below 2,019.06.

BULL ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

S&P 500 monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count is bullish at Super Cycle degree.

The two big bear markets of 2000 – 2002 and 2007 – 2009 may have been waves A and C within a large flat correction for a Super Cycle wave IV. The bull market since 2009 may be Super Cycle wave V.

Cycle waves I, II and III are complete within Super Cycle wave V. Cycle wave II was a relatively shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting 12 weeks. Cycle wave III is 55.97 points short of 1.618 the length of cycle wave I. This is a reasonable difference, but as it is less than 10% the length of cycle wave III (it is 5.2%) I consider this an acceptable Fibonacci ratio.

Draw a best fit channel about this bull market as shown. Cycle wave IV may have ended just short of support at the lower edge.

If it continues any further, cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory below 1,370.58. If this bull wave count is invalidated by downwards movement, then the bear wave count shall be fully confirmed.

Cycle wave III shows an increase in upwards momentum beyond cycle wave I.

Cycle wave II was a shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting three months. Cycle wave IV may be a complete shallow 0.19 regular flat correction, exhibiting some alternation with cycle wave II.

At 2,500 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I.

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave II was a shallow 0.41 zigzag lasting three months. Cycle wave IV may be a complete shallow 0.19 regular flat correction, exhibiting some alternation with cycle wave II.

At 2,500 cycle wave V would reach equality in length with cycle wave I.

Price remains below the final bear market trend line. This line is drawn from the all time high at 2,134.72 to the swing high labelled primary wave B at 2,116.48 on November 2015. This line is drawn using the approach outlined by Magee in the classic “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”. To use it correctly we should assume that a bear market remains intact until this line is breached by a close of 3% or more of market value. In practice, that price point would be a new all time high which would invalidate any bear wave count.

This wave count requires price confirmation with a new all time high above 2,134.72.

While price has not made a new high, while it remains below the final bear market trend line and while technical indicators point to weakness in upwards movement, this very bullish wave count comes with a strong caveat. I do not have confidence in it.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Upwards movement cannot now be a fourth wave correction for intermediate wave (4) as price is now back up in intermediate wave (1) territory above 2,019.39. This has provided some clarity.

For the bullish wave count, it means that primary wave C must be over as a complete five wave impulse.

Intermediate wave (2) is seen as an atypical double zigzag. It is atypical in that it moves sideways. Double zigzags should have a clear slope against the prior trend to have the right look. Within a double zigzag, the second zigzag exists to deepen the correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough. Not only does this second zigzag not deepen the correction, it fails to move at all beyond the end of the first zigzag. This structure technically meets rules, but it looks completely wrong. This gives the wave count a low probability.

If the bull market has resumed, it must begin with a five wave structure upwards at the daily and weekly chart level. So far that is incomplete.

At 2,088 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. Within minor wave 3, at 2,086 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii. This gives a two point target zone calculated at two wave degrees which should have a reasonable probability.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 1,930.68.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

S&P 500 monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The long trend line on price is drawn from the low of March 2009, at 666.79 to the low in October 2011. This trend line was repeatedly tested, breached, and then provided resistance in August 2015. Price has closed well over 3% of market value below it. Trend lines like this one which are reasonably shallow, long held and repeatedly tested are highly technically significant. The breach tells us the market has switched from bull to bear. This supports the bear wave count over the bull.

Volume has overall declined during the bull market spanning over 6 years. The rise in price was not supported by volume at the monthly chart level. This also supports the bear wave count over the bull.

RSI shows double negative divergence with price as the final highs were made. Finally, a failure swing on RSI completes a pattern which was last seen in September 2000. This pattern indicates a bear market may begin from here and supports the bear wave count over the bull.

On Balance Volume also shows divergence with price (pink line) as the final highs were made. On Balance Volume has breached a very long held trend line (brown). This is further support for the bear wave count over the bull.

Since the all time high in May 2015, downwards movement is coming with an increase in volume at the monthly chart level. This further supports the bear wave count over the bull.

Not only is there nothing bullish about this picture at the monthly chart level, it is very bearish indeed. It indicates that recent downwards movement is more likely to be the start of a large bear market than it is to be another correction within a continuing bull market.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume data on StockCharts is different to that given from NYSE, the home of this index. Comments on volume will be based on NYSE volume data when it differs from StockCharts.

A close above resistance about 2,025 on a day with increased volume indicates a possible upwards breakout may be underway. If price keeps moving higher tomorrow and shows a further increase in volume, then the current short term upwards trend may be expected to be continuing.

Price has closed above the 200 day Moving Average. This has happened before and yet all gains were fully retraced thereafter. This close does not mean the bull market is back; this is still more likely a bear market rally.

The 200 day MA is still pointing down.

ADX is increasing indicating the market is trending. The trend is up.

ATR still disagrees indicating that there is something wrong with this possible trend. If it is a bear market rally, this makes more sense.

On Balance Volume found support at the pink trend line, so the strength of that line is reinforced. This line may assist to hold price up from moving too much lower for any continuation of a consolidation.

Neither RSI nor Stochastics are yet overbought. There is room yet for price to rise further.

DOW THEORY

I am choosing to use the S&P500, Dow Industrials, Dow Transportation, Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 index. Major swing lows are noted below. So far the Industrials, Transportation and Russell 2000 have made new major swing lows. None of these indices have made new highs.

I am aware that this approach is extremely conservative. Original Dow Theory has already confirmed a major trend change as both the industrials and transportation indexes have made new major lows.

At this stage, if the S&P500 and Nasdaq also make new major swing lows, then my modified Dow Theory would confirm a major new bear market. At that stage, my only wave count would be the bear wave count.

The lows below are from October 2014. These lows were the last secondary correction within the primary trend which was the bull market from 2009.

These lows must be breached by a daily close below each point.

S&P500

S&P 500 daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The S&P has not yet closed below 1,821.61. Price remains below the bear market trend line. Price has not made a major swing high. The 200 day moving average remains pointing down.

NASDAQ

Nasdaq daily 2016
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Nasdaq has not yet closed below 4,117.84. Price remains below the 200 day moving average which remains pointing down. Price is below the bear market trend line. Price has not made a major new swing high.

DOW INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

DJIA daily 2016
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Dow Industrials closed below the last major swing low of the last bull market at 15,855.12 on 20th January. That daily close was 15,766.74. Price is now above the 200 day moving average. The average remains pointing down. Price is below the bear market trend line. Price has not made a major new swing high.

DOW TRANSPORTATION

DJT daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

The transportation index has confirmed a new bear market with the industrials. Price closed below the major swing low within the last bear market which was made in October 2014, at 7,700.49. The close was on 24th August, 2015, at 7,595.08. Price is below the 200 day Moving Average. The average is still pointing down. Price is below the bear market trend line. Price has not made a major new swing high.

RUSSELL 2000

Russell 2000 daily 2016
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The Russell 2000 closed below the last major swing low of the last bull market which was on Ocober 2014, at 1,343.51 with the close of 1,330.81 on 25th August, 2015. Price is below the 200 day Moving Average. The Average is still pointing down. Price is below the bear market trend line. Price has not made a major new swing high.

This analysis is published @ 10:33 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]