Monthly Archives: May 2014

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2014

Upwards movement was again expected. Momentum is slowing which was also expected.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2014

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th May, 2014

Upwards movement continued as wave count expected.

Click on charts to enlarge.

AAPL weekly 2014

Because the downwards wave labeled here cycle wave a subdivides so well as a five wave impulse, with an extended third wave, the correction cannot be over there.

This means that upwards movement from the low at 385.10 should subdivide as a corrective structure and may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 705.07.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double zigzag. The channel drawn about it is a best fit. When this maroon channel is clearly breached by downwards movement I shall have confidence that cycle wave b is over and cycle wave c downwards is underway.

Cycle wave c would be extremely likely to make a new low beyond the end of cycle wave a at 385.10 to avoid a truncation.

AAPL daily 2014

Cycle wave b is incomplete. Within it intermediate wave (C) is unfolding as an impulse.

Because momentum has slightly increased from the low of minor wave 2 I expect that this is most likely minor wave 3. At 673 minor wave 3 would reach equality in length with minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 may remain within the blue channel.

When minor wave 3 is completed then minor wave 4 should last about three to eight days. It may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 604.41.

Intermediate wave (C) has already passed equality in length with intermediate wave (A). They may not exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to each other.

When minor wave 4 is completed I would use the ratio between minor wave 5 and either of 1 or 3 to calculate a final target for upwards movement to end.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th May, 2014

Upwards movement was again expected. Movement remains contained within the small channel on the hourly chart. The target remains the same.

Summary: Upwards movement is incomplete. The target is at 1,939 to 1,940 and this may be met in two more days / sessions. Upwards movement is most likely to end when the upper i-iii pink trend line is overshot.

This analysis is published about 08:47 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

The aqua blue trend lines are critical. Draw the first trend line from the low of 1,158.66 on 25th November, 2011 to the next swing low at 1,266.74 on 4th June, 2012. Create a parallel copy and place it on the low at 1,560.33 on 24th June, 2013. While price remains above the lower of these two aqua blue trend lines we must assume the trend remains upwards. This is the main reason for the bullish wave count being my main wave count.

Bullish Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2014

This bullish wave count expects a cycle degree correction was over at 666.79 for a fourth wave, and a new cycle degree bull market began there for a fifth wave. Within cycle wave V primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate wave (1) is almost complete.

Minor wave 5 is an almost complete ending contracting diagonal. Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must be single zigzags, and the fourth wave should overlap first wave price territory.

Within the final fifth wave of this diagonal minuette wave (b) is a running contracting triangle. Minuette wave (c) is an incomplete impulse.

I would expect the final fifth wave of this diagonal to end at the upper i-iii trend line, or maybe to overshoot this trend line.

The diagonal is contracting because minute wave iii is shorter than minute wave i. Minute wave v may not be longer than equality with minute wave iii at 1,973.72 because a third wave may never be the shortest wave.

At 1,939 minuette wave (c) would reach equality with minuette wave (a). If minuette wave (c) lasts a total Fibonacci eight days / sessions then it may end in another two days / sessions.

S&P 500 hourly 2014

A further slight decrease in momentum for Thursday’s session indicates that subminuette wave v within minute wave (c) is most likely unfolding.

Draw a channel about minuette wave (c) using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the highs labeled subminuette waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled subminuette wave ii. Subminuette wave iv is contained within this channel. I would expect subminuette wave v to remain contained within an Elliott channel.

At 1,940 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave iii.

When the channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then minuette wave (c) may be over. If the upper i-iii pink trend line of the diagonal (copied over from the daily chart) is overshot first then I will have confidence that minuette wave (c) is over. If the pink i-iii trend line is not met or overshot first then I would consider downwards movement to more likely be a second wave correction within minuette wave (c).

At 1,939 minuette wave (c) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (a).

Within micro wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,909.82.

S&P 500 5 minute 2014

Bearish Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily bear 2014

This bearish alternate wave count expects that the correction is not over. The flat correction which ended at 666.79 was only cycle wave a of a larger super cycle second wave correction.

Cycle wave b is now longer than the maximum common length of 138% for a B wave of a flat correction.

Cycle wave b is an almost complete zigzag structure.

A clear breach of the large maroon – – – channel on the monthly and weekly charts is required for confirmation of this wave count. If that happens then this would be my main wave count and would be strongly favoured. Only once this wave count is confirmed will I calculate downwards targets for cycle wave c for you; it would be premature to do that prior to confirmation.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2014

A new high was expected. The structure is incomplete and a target can now be calculated at two wave degrees.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th May, 2014

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th May, 2014

Movement above 1,908.93 was not expected. I have reanalysed recent movement and the wave count has changed.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th May, 2014

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd May, 2014

More upwards movement was not expected for the main wave count, but was for the alternate. Both wave counts remain valid at this stage.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd May, 2014

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd May, 2014

Some upwards movement was expected, but the target at 1,891 was well passed. The wave count remains valid.

Continue reading S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd May, 2014

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May, 2014

Upwards movement invalidated the hourly wave count. Overall the wave count remains mostly the same, with upwards movement a continuation of a second wave correction which is now a clear three on the daily chart.

Summary: Tomorrow may begin with a small amount of upwards movement, before a third wave down begins. The third wave should have strong enough downwards momentum to breach the lower edge of a base channel on the hourly chart. I should be able to calculate a target for the third wave for you tomorrow.

This analysis is published about 09:37 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

The aqua blue trend lines are critical. Draw the first trend line from the low of 1,158.66 on 25th November, 2011 to the next swing low at 1,266.74 on 4th June, 2012. Create a parallel copy and place it on the low at 1,560.33 on 24th June, 2013. While price remains above the lower of these two aqua blue trend lines we must assume the trend remains upwards. This is the main reason for the bullish wave count being my main wave count.

Bullish Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily 2014

This bullish wave count expects a cycle degree correction was over at 666.79 for a fourth wave, and a new cycle degree bull market began there for a fifth wave. Within cycle wave V primary waves 1 and 2 are complete. Within primary wave 3 intermediate wave (1) is complete.

There are several possible structures that intermediate wave (2) can take. It is most likely to be a zigzag, but it may also be a flat, combination, double zigzag or double flat. It could also possibly be a triple, but that has an extremely low probability. It may not be a triangle.

If intermediate wave (2) is a flat correction or a combination then within it we may see a new high above 1,902.17. For this reason there is no upper invalidation point for this bullish wave count. A new high above 1,902.17 would eliminate the bearish scenario as described in this analysis below.

Intermediate wave (2) should last several weeks and may last about two or three months. It should be choppy and overlapping and it should find support at the lower aqua blue trend line. A breach of this trend line by more than 3% of market value would see this bullish wave count discarded in favour of the bearish wave count below.

S&P 500 hourly 2014

Movement above 1,886 invalidated yesterday’s hourly wave count. This can only be a continuation of minute wave ii which subdivides best now as a double zigzag.

Within the second zigzag of the double, minuette wave (y), the final fifth wave looks incomplete on the five minute chart. We may see a little more upwards movement to begin tomorrow’s session. At 1,891 subminuette wave c would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave a. There would then be alternation between the two zigzags in this double: the first zigzag has its c wave close to 1.618 the length of its a wave, and this second zigzag may have its c wave close to 0.618 the length of its a wave.

I have drawn a “best fit” channel about minute wave ii. When this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then we shall have confirmation that minute wave ii is very likely to be over, and a third wave down should have begun.

I had not expected minute wave ii to continue as a double zigzag. As a single zigzag it was already close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i, and it was nicely in proportion to minute wave i. Now it is continuing further as a double zigzag it is longer in duration to minute wave i and deeper than 0.618 the length of minute wave i. Double zigzags are reasonably common, but triples are very rare. Once the second zigzag is complete the only way this correction could continue would be as a very rare triple. The probability that it will finally be over will be very high.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i at 1,902.17.

S&P 500 5 minute 2014

Bearish Alternate Wave Count.

S&P 500 daily bear 2014

This bearish alternate wave count expects that the correction is not over. The flat correction which ended at 666.79 was only cycle wave a of a larger super cycle second wave correction.

Cycle wave b is now a 143% correction of cycle wave a, just a little longer than the maximum common length of 138% for a B wave of a flat correction.

Cycle wave b is now a complete zigzag structure.

A clear breach of the large maroon – – – channel on the monthly and weekly charts is required for confirmation of this wave count. If that happens then this would be my main wave count and would be strongly favoured. Only once this wave count is confirmed will I calculate downwards targets for cycle wave c for you; it would be premature to do that prior to confirmation.

Within cycle wave c no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,902.17.

Cycle wave c should move substantially below the end of cycle wave a below 666.79.

AAPL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 21st May 2014

Upwards movement continued as wave count expected.

Click on charts to enlarge.

AAPL weekly 2014

Because the downwards wave labeled here cycle wave a subdivides so well as a five wave impulse, with an extended third wave, the correction cannot be over there.

This means that upwards movement from the low at 385.10 should subdivide as a corrective structure and may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 705.07.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double zigzag. The channel drawn about it is a best fit. When this maroon channel is clearly breached by downwards movement I shall have confidence that cycle wave b is over and cycle wave c downwards is underway.

Cycle wave c would be extremely likely to make a new low beyond the end of cycle wave a at 385.10 to avoid a truncation.

AAPL daily 2014

Cycle wave b is incomplete. Within it intermediate wave (C) is unfolding as an impulse, and minor wave 4 has recently completed.

At 627 minor wave 5 would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave 3. Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1 I will expect to see a Fibonacci ratio for minor wave 5.

Within minute wave iii of minor wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 585.40.